ION Phase 2 - Cambridge's Light Rail Transit

[Bytor]

It would definitely be cheaper than the current proposed elevated structures crossing the Grand and Speed rivers though.

I'm sorry, but I really wish that people would stop suggesting that running Stage 2 ION along Homer Watson Blvd. would be a reasonable alternative to through Sportsworld. (Probably because most people making it are the NIMBYs trying to appear reasonable, even though I know that you, Dunkalunk, are not one of them.)

If you look at the table I posted of 2019 boardings by route, you can see that the 201+10+16 still don't make up what the 200+7 did in the lead up to ION starting service. Also, when you compare the map posted above with stop use circles, you can see that the portion of the 201 south of Ottawa St. isn't near as busy as the northern part and that it's the 10 & 16 which are the big drivers for ridership down into Pioneer Park, Doon, and along Homer Watson Blvd. That means that only a small portion of the 201's boardings can be used to add to the 10's and 16's to try and guesstimate some sort of demand for a Homer Watson LRT.

The numbers just don't pan out in a way that makes Homer Watson a better route choice at this point in time.

[danbrotherston]

It would definitely be cheaper than the current proposed elevated structures crossing the Grand and Speed rivers though.

I'm sorry, but I really wish that people would stop suggesting that running Stage 2 ION along Homer Watson Blvd. would be a reasonable alternative to through Sportsworld. (Probably because most people making it are the NIMBYs trying to appear reasonable, even though I know that you, Dunkalunk, are not one of them.)

If you look at the table I posted of 2019 boardings by route, you can see that the 201+10+16 still don't make up what the 200+7 did in the lead up to ION starting service. Also, when you compare the map posted above with stop use circles, you can see that the portion of the 201 south of Ottawa St. isn't near as busy as the northern part and that it's the 10 & 16 which are the big drivers for ridership down into Pioneer Park, Doon, and along Homer Watson Blvd. That means that only a small portion of the 201's boardings can be used to add to the 10's and 16's to try and guesstimate some sort of demand for a Homer Watson LRT.

The numbers just don't pan out in a way that makes Homer Watson a better route choice at this point in time.

Are there NIMBYs who are opposing the Sportsworld alignment? I thought most opposition was to having it go near Preston/anywhere where people live. Sportsworld is a low density mostly commercial area.

Certainly there is development opportunity there, but I don't think there's much real demand. The main source of boardings are transfers at Sportsworld Station and those could move anywhere, Sportsworld Station is exceptionally mediocre as far as transit goes.

There is lots of opportunity for growth on Homer-Watson, there is actually a few bits of density, but tons of car infra and very poor transit, improving transit could unlock a significant pent up demand. And again, the College could be a huge driver of trips, and transit could also help alleviate the housing crunch there.

I think there are compelling reasons why Homer-Watson is a reasonable alternative. And I really don't think it would help solve the NIMBY opposition, there are lots of people in that area who would object as well.

That being said, there's really no reason to get frustrated by it, the fact is the LRT is (hopefully will) get built along highway 8, and there is zero chance of that plan changing to Homer-Watson at the moment. More, our world is an n=1 experiment...neither you, nor I, nor anyone will ever know whether Homer-Watson would be a better or worse routing...it is not something that is possible to know for certain.

[ac3r]

They wouldn't route the second stage to Homer Watson, but it is a consideration for a line in the far future as it is included in the intensification goals the region has studied. Right now it doesn't warrant it, but as the years go on, it is a possibility.

[GarthDanlor]

It would definitely be cheaper than the current proposed elevated structures crossing the Grand and Speed rivers though.

I'm sorry, but I really wish that people would stop suggesting that running Stage 2 ION along Homer Watson Blvd. would be a reasonable alternative to through Sportsworld. (Probably because most people making it are the NIMBYs trying to appear reasonable, even though I know that you, Dunkalunk, are not one of them.)

If you look at the table I posted of 2019 boardings by route, you can see that the 201+10+16 still don't make up what the 200+7 did in the lead up to ION starting service. Also, when you compare the map posted above with stop use circles, you can see that the portion of the 201 south of Ottawa St. isn't near as busy as the northern part and that it's the 10 & 16 which are the big drivers for ridership down into Pioneer Park, Doon, and along Homer Watson Blvd. That means that only a small portion of the 201's boardings can be used to add to the 10's and 16's to try and guesstimate some sort of demand for a Homer Watson LRT.

The numbers just don't pan out in a way that makes Homer Watson a better route choice at this point in time.

But why would you consider supporting a Homer Watson route as NIMBYism??  We'd be running the LRT through an area where people live , work and are educated, not avoiding such areas.  At the moment Sportsworld is simply a failing commercial wasteland (though the LRT may help revive it). It might by the wrong opinion or choice, but not NIMBYism.  

I work at the college and there is a hell of a lot of cars in the parking lots of the two Campuses that this route would pass.  A direct LRT connection would encourage more people (both from KW & Cambridge) to opt for transit.  It would certainly encourage me to use it more frequently, heading to Conestoga from Downtown.  Obviously this isn't going to be an option for Phase 2 anymore, but why not Phase 3?  In the meantime, maybe we could help build the case by running a Fountain/Homer Watson express running from Preston Station to the Block Line Station).

[ac3r]

One of the biggest reasons why it's going through Sportsworld Crossing is because of the Highway 401 and 8 interchange as well as the big box stores that will most inevitably be redeveloped at some point (similar to SmartCentres in Cambridge will be). Homer Watson would have be nice to utilize, but it's a bit too disconnected from things for this phase of the LRT and current evolutionary stage of the city. The chosen route through Sportsworld Crossing also provides the most direct way (in terms of distance) from Kitchener-Waterloo to Cambridge which is important for a rapid transit system...the ultimate goal of transit is to move people, not just encourage development. Bytor mentioned the numbers and they're right that the ridership around Homer Watson does not yet warrant an LRT line. One of the goals in our region is to better bridge the borders between the individual cities and make travelling between them less of a hassle and the chosen route does that very well, especially with so much of this route being elevated allowing for high speeds between the cities.

However, as for the future, who knows. On the previous page I mentioned how many of my colleagues have been exploring where a future line of the LRT will go, and Homer Watson is definitely a contender. The region and a few planning/economic firms have been studying this area already. As danbrotherston mentioned, the area already has a rail corridor which could be utilized. The area around the college is considered a "major node" for intensification and transit development as well. There is another 401 connection that could be a benefit for commuters coming from the west. There is a lot of land still open for development on this side of the city too, although the limits of the city are very close here and I don't see Wilmot Township pushing for intense densification anytime soon.

If you've never seen the Regional Official Plan documents, take a look to get some insight as to where this city is going to focus on in the next couple decades when it comes to intensification and transit development: Regional Official Plan

[danbrotherston]

One of the biggest reasons why it's going through Sportsworld Crossing is because of the Highway 401 and 8 interchange as well as the big box stores that will most inevitably be redeveloped at some point (similar to SmartCentres in Cambridge will be). Homer Watson would have be nice to utilize, but it's a bit too disconnected from things for this phase of the LRT and current evolutionary stage of the city. The chosen route through Sportsworld Crossing also provides the most direct way (in terms of distance) from Kitchener-Waterloo to Cambridge which is important for a rapid transit system...the ultimate goal of transit is to move people, not just encourage development. Bytor mentioned the numbers and they're right that the ridership around Homer Watson does not yet warrant an LRT line. One of the goals in our region is to better bridge the borders between the individual cities and make travelling between them less of a hassle and the chosen route does that very well, especially with so much of this route being elevated allowing for high speeds between the cities.

However, as for the future, who knows. On the previous page I mentioned how many of my colleagues have been exploring where a future line of the LRT will go, and Homer Watson is definitely a contender. The region and a few planning/economic firms have been studying this area already. As danbrotherston mentioned, the area already has a rail corridor which could be utilized. The area around the college is considered a "major node" for intensification and transit development as well. There is another 401 connection that could be a benefit for commuters coming from the west. There is a lot of land still open for development on this side of the city too, although the limits of the city are very close here and I don't see Wilmot Township pushing for intense densification anytime soon.

If you've never seen the Regional Official Plan documents, take a look to get some insight as to where this city is going to focus on in the next couple decades when it comes to intensification and transit development: Regional Official Plan

Being more direct, but bypassing people and destinations is contrary to the goal of transporting people. I don't know why we keep saying that Homer-Watson doesn't warrant an LRT line. If Homer-Watson doesn't than Sportsworld absolutely does not. The line is bigger than just that one section. But in that case there are more people and jobs along Homer-Watson.

[dunkalunk]

It would definitely be cheaper than the current proposed elevated structures crossing the Grand and Speed rivers though.

I'm sorry, but I really wish that people would stop suggesting that running Stage 2 ION along Homer Watson Blvd. would be a reasonable alternative to through Sportsworld. (Probably because most people making it are the NIMBYs trying to appear reasonable, even though I know that you, Dunkalunk, are not one of them.)

If you look at the table I posted of 2019 boardings by route, you can see that the 201+10+16 still don't make up what the 200+7 did in the lead up to ION starting service. Also, when you compare the map posted above with stop use circles, you can see that the portion of the 201 south of Ottawa St. isn't near as busy as the northern part and that it's the 10 & 16 which are the big drivers for ridership down into Pioneer Park, Doon, and along Homer Watson Blvd. That means that only a small portion of the 201's boardings can be used to add to the 10's and 16's to try and guesstimate some sort of demand for a Homer Watson LRT.

The numbers just don't pan out in a way that makes Homer Watson a better route choice at this point in time.

I'm mostly seeing the increased development potential and technical feasibility of a Homer Watson alignment over anything else. If our trains have a maximum speed of 90km/h (iirc) then why do we have a 4km stretch adjacent to a major highway buffered by environmentally sensitive lands and a major highways that can never be developed? In addition to the 1km long elevated structure over Grand river floodplain.

If anything, this is worse for the 'Stop LRT thru Preston' crowd because it requires a LOT more residential property acquisition along Eagle St S than the Shantz Hill-Fountain flyover alignment.

[jamincan]

Any route that goes to Cambridge has to cross the Grand River.

[trainspotter139]

One of the biggest reasons why it's going through Sportsworld Crossing is because of the Highway 401 and 8 interchange as well as the big box stores that will most inevitably be redeveloped at some point (similar to SmartCentres in Cambridge will be). Homer Watson would have be nice to utilize, but it's a bit too disconnected from things for this phase of the LRT and current evolutionary stage of the city. The chosen route through Sportsworld Crossing also provides the most direct way (in terms of distance) from Kitchener-Waterloo to Cambridge which is important for a rapid transit system...the ultimate goal of transit is to move people, not just encourage development. Bytor mentioned the numbers and they're right that the ridership around Homer Watson does not yet warrant an LRT line. One of the goals in our region is to better bridge the borders between the individual cities and make travelling between them less of a hassle and the chosen route does that very well, especially with so much of this route being elevated allowing for high speeds between the cities.

However, as for the future, who knows. On the previous page I mentioned how many of my colleagues have been exploring where a future line of the LRT will go, and Homer Watson is definitely a contender. The region and a few planning/economic firms have been studying this area already. As danbrotherston mentioned, the area already has a rail corridor which could be utilized. The area around the college is considered a "major node" for intensification and transit development as well. There is another 401 connection that could be a benefit for commuters coming from the west. There is a lot of land still open for development on this side of the city too, although the limits of the city are very close here and I don't see Wilmot Township pushing for intense densification anytime soon.

If you've never seen the Regional Official Plan documents, take a look to get some insight as to where this city is going to focus on in the next couple decades when it comes to intensification and transit development: Regional Official Plan

Being more direct, but bypassing people and destinations is contrary to the goal of transporting people. I don't know why we keep saying that Homer-Watson doesn't warrant an LRT line. If Homer-Watson doesn't than Sportsworld absolutely does not. The line is bigger than just that one section. But in that case there are more people and jobs along Homer-Watson.

In my humble opinion, if LRT were to go along Homer Watson it would be better served as a replacement for the 201 rather than as a spur or diverting the 301 away from Sportsworld. Sportsworld itself has more intensification potential and also has intercity connections that don't exist on Homer Watson.

[neonjoe]

The Kitchener side has more potential for a Homer Watson route, but having the route adjacent to the Rare Nature Reserve on the Cambridge side does very little for anything.

[Bytor]

Are there NIMBYs who are opposing the Sportsworld alignment? I thought most opposition was to having it go near Preston/anywhere where people live. Sportsworld is a low density mostly commercial area.

Oh yeah. For every alternate route proposal I saw basically three groups of people.

One group were the people who honestly thought that the alternative was a better route and would have more riders. Usually due to lack of knowledge and usually were willing to have their opinions changed.

Group two were the limited NIMBYs who would honestly support and vote yes for it, just not near them. This group would usually admit they were wrong about an alternative route being better once shown the facts, but would say they were still against it in their neighbourhood.

Group three were the malicious NIMBYs—completely against it regardless of route. These were the people who would propose another route but not seriously. They would do it to try and fracture the pro-LRT side in the hopes to get them to fight and the politicians would see it as limited public support for the preferred route and get the project sidelined. A divide and conquer strategy.

Group 3 are the people who, prior to 2014, tried to push that Stage 1 after Mill St end up on Homer Watson Blvd. and head down to Conestoga College. Why? "Because students", even though ridership to Conestoga was fairly low back then even without comparing it to the 200 & 7. (They're also the same people who think that UW+WLU students are/were the only riders on the then 200+7 and now ION, completely ignoring the riders head away from the Universities during the morning rush hour.)

For Stage 2 ION it morphed into "Make Fairway a spur and branch off of Mill/Block Line to go to Conestoga College, and then got tacked on to the "run down Maple Grove Rd." or "run down the middle of the 401" faux suggestions.

Yes, both of those bad suggestions do avoid Preston, but they were being made mostly by people who lived in Galt and Kitchener, not Preston.

Certainly there is development opportunity there, but I don't think there's much real demand. The main source of boardings are transfers at Sportsworld Station and those could move anywhere, Sportsworld Station is exceptionally mediocre as far as transit goes.

And yet more ridership goes through there than down to lower Doon and Conestoga College.

There is lots of opportunity for growth on Homer-Watson, there is actually a few bits of density, but tons of car infra and very poor transit, improving transit could unlock a significant pent up demand. And again, the College could be a huge driver of trips, and transit could also help alleviate the housing crunch there. I think there are compelling reasons why Homer-Watson is a reasonable alternative. And I really don't think it would help solve the NIMBY opposition, there are lots of people in that area who would object as well.

Sure, some day. Just not right now, and not before the other possible corridors like Victoria/Highland or Ira Needles/Erb/King N. will need it, unless something drastic changes in the way urban growth has played out the last few decades.

That being said, there's really no reason to get frustrated by it, the fact is the LRT is (hopefully will) get built along highway 8, and there is zero chance of that plan changing to Homer-Watson at the moment.

But it can get put off. If the politicians feel there's no public support, it doesn't matter how solid the numbers showing it is necessary are. Or if the naysayers get more people like Lorentz or Harris elected as Regional councillors who have a history of ignoring public opinion on things like public and active transit and voting against it.

The people behind T4ST and individuals like Lee Ann Mitchell are still out there, even if they are not vocal right now.

More, our world is an n=1 experiment...neither you, nor I, nor anyone will ever know whether Homer-Watson would be a better or worse routing...it is not something that is possible to know for certain.

No, but we can say whether it is a better or worse choice to go with right now.

[danbrotherston]

Are there NIMBYs who are opposing the Sportsworld alignment? I thought most opposition was to having it go near Preston/anywhere where people live. Sportsworld is a low density mostly commercial area.

Oh yeah. For every alternate route proposal I saw basically three groups of people.

One group were the people who honestly thought that the alternative was a better route and would have more riders. Usually due to lack of knowledge and usually were willing to have their opinions changed.

Group two were the limited NIMBYs who would honestly support and vote yes for it, just not near them. This group would usually admit they were wrong about an alternative route being better once shown the facts, but would say they were still against it in their neighbourhood.

Group three were the malicious NIMBYs—completely against it regardless of route. These were the people who would propose another route but not seriously. They would do it to try and fracture the pro-LRT side in the hopes to get them to fight and the politicians would see it as limited public support for the preferred route and get the project sidelined. A divide and conquer strategy.

Group 3 are the people who, prior to 2014, tried to push that Stage 1 after Mill St end up on Homer Watson Blvd.  and head down to Conestoga College. Why? "Because students", even though ridership to Conestoga was fairly low back then even without comparing it to the 200 & 7. (They're also the same people who think that UW+WLU students are/were the only riders on the then 200+7 and now ION, completely ignoring the riders head away from the Universities during the morning rush hour.)

Comparing Conestoga College, a post-secondary education with relatively poor transit service, and very good automobile access, with UW and Laurier which have relatively poor vehicular access but (prior to LRT) excellent transit service is completely unfair. I would in fact argue that UW's strong ridership is an argument that Conestoga's ridership would grow substantially if service was improved. Even pointing out that Conestoga College which again, has very good automobile access, but relatively poor transit service, has low ridership as a reason not to invest in improving transit service is problematic. The ridership today is poor BECAUSE the service is poor, not vice versa.

For Stage 1 ION it morphed into "Make Fairway a spur and branch off of Mill/Block Line to go to Conestoga College, and then got tacked on to the "run down Maple Grove Rd." or "run down the middle of the 401" faux suggestions.

Yes, both of those bad suggestions do avoid Preston, but they were being made people who lived in Galt and Kitchener.

Yes, the Maple Grove or 401 routings were terrible, for a lot of the same reason I don't like the Highway 8 routing in Kitchener.

The biggest challenge is the proposed map would orphan Fairway Station as a branch. I don't think that's a good thing, and I don't see a clear solution without quite obviously doubling back.

Certainly there is development opportunity there, but I don't think there's much real demand. The main source of boardings are transfers at Sportsworld Station and those could move anywhere, Sportsworld Station is exceptionally mediocre as far as transit goes.

And yet more ridership goes through there than down to lower Doon and Conestoga College.

Yes, as a feature of the existing infra, not as a feature of the demand or possible growth. For the same reason we argue against not building bike infra somewhere because "nobody bikes", this isn't the only (or even the best) argument. Again, we aren't building bridges over the river as a result of people swimming across.

There is lots of opportunity for growth on Homer-Watson, there is actually a few bits of density, but tons of car infra and very poor transit, improving transit could unlock a significant pent up demand. And again, the College could be a huge driver of trips, and transit could also help alleviate the housing crunch there. I think there are compelling reasons why Homer-Watson is a reasonable alternative. And I really don't think it would help solve the NIMBY opposition, there are lots of people in that area who would object as well.

Sure, some day. Just not right now, and not before the other possible corridors like Victoria/Highland or Ira Needles/Erb/King N. will need it, unless something drastic changes in the way urban growth has played out the last few decades.

The choice to go to Cambridge is absolutely political, there are almost certainly better routes in the city already. We are discussing the possible routes TO Cambridge only as a political artifact, nothing more.

Out of the two possible routes TO Cambridge through south Kitchener, I believe Homer-Watson is more compelling (with the singular caveat above).

That being said, there's really no reason to get frustrated by it, the fact is the LRT is (hopefully will) get built along highway 8, and there is zero chance of that plan changing to Homer-Watson at the moment.

But it can get put off. If the politicians feel there's no public support, it doesn't matter how solid the numbers showing it is necessary are. Or if the naysayers get more people like Lorentz or Harris elected as Regional councillors who have a history of ignoring public opinion on things like public and active transit and voting against it.

The people behind T4ST and individuals like Lee Ann Mitchell are still out there, even if they are not vocal right now.

I don't think a single person in this forum would oppose the current project, even if we speculate about other possibilities.

More, our world is an n=1 experiment...neither you, nor I, nor anyone will ever know whether Homer-Watson would be a better or worse routing...it is not something that is possible to know for certain.

No, but we can say whether it is a better or worse choice to go with right now.

"Right now" being the time after we've already decided and planned on a Highway 8 routing...nobody is saying that we should be trying to change the routing.  Of course, if this was an alternate universe, and they were planning on going down Homer-Watson, I would hope that you would be similarly supportive of the routing you feel is inferior.

[KevinL]

Group three were the malicious NIMBYs—completely against it regardless of route. These were the people who would propose another route but not seriously. They would do it to try and fracture the pro-LRT side in the hopes to get them to fight and the politicians would see it as limited public support for the preferred route and get the project sidelined. A divide and conquer strategy.

Ah yes, the BANANAs - Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anything.

[danbrotherston]

Group three were the malicious NIMBYs—completely against it regardless of route. These were the people who would propose another route but not seriously. They would do it to try and fracture the pro-LRT side in the hopes to get them to fight and the politicians would see it as limited public support for the preferred route and get the project sidelined. A divide and conquer strategy.

Ah yes, the BANANAs - Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anything.

We need another acronym I think:

OEBOPFLALPTDE

"Only Ever Build On Prime/Pristine Farm Land And Lets Pretend Traffic Doesn't Exist"

It could use refinement...but this is basically "I don't want anything to change, but it sounds bad if I say that".

[Bytor]

But why would you consider supporting a Homer Watson route as NIMBYism?? 

Because it gets used to argue in bad faith. It's used to appear to people who are nominally pro-LRT but don't know very much about the project or pay much attention to it and thus do not understand why the NIMBY's proposed route is inferior. It is hoped that enough of those "soft LRT" people will say "Hey, if we've got this alternate route that won't do ${flimsyButUnexaminedDamageClaim} and is just as good, why not do that instead" such that politicians will feel that support for the better, proposed route is lacking thus not greenlight the expensive project.

It is a divide and conquer strategy done not get the alternate route built instead, but to try and make sure that nothing gets built at all.

We'd be running the LRT through an area where people live , work and are educated, not avoiding such areas. 

Sure, but not one where sufficient people living, working and going to school take public transit to warrant an LRT at this time. Maybe in the future, but not now nor in the near term.

At the moment Sportsworld is simply a failing commercial wasteland (though the LRT may help revive it).

And yet ridership through there is higher than ridership to lower Doon and Conestoga College.

It might by the wrong opinion or choice, but not NIMBYism.  

Trying to push a Homer Watson route to Conestoga College over the current proposed route is NIMBYism when it's used in bad faith as described above.

I work at the college and there is a hell of a lot of cars in the parking lots of the two Campuses that this route would pass.  A direct LRT connection would encourage more people (both from KW & Cambridge) to opt for transit.  It would certainly encourage me to use it more frequently, heading to Conestoga from Downtown.  Obviously this isn't going to be an option for Phase 2 anymore, but why not Phase 3?  In the meantime, maybe we could help build the case by running a Fountain/Homer Watson express running from Preston Station to the Block Line Station).

OK. But get more of them riding the bus, first, because, as mentioned above, not enough of them are riding the bus to make a conversion to LRT worthwhile.

For example, get route 10 from ~1,800 weekday riders to 3,000+ with a nice solid history of 5-10% annual growth such that's it's reasonable to say that a decade after that 3,000/day milestone it would probably reach 7,000+/day such that it's time to start planning for an LRT.

LRTs are expensive and have higher fixed cost than bus and as such are not really a viable alternative until you have several thousand daily riders. And while having to Conestoga College one may encourage more people to use transit, it won't encourage quadruple the people to use it when ION Stage 1 only managed a 40% jump in the Central Transit Corridor through K-W which is a much denser than the Homer Watson corridor in terms of both jobs and residents.

I'm not saying that I am opposed to a Homer Watson LRT route. What I am opposed is the current use of it as a bad faith alternative to a route that will obviously be needed much sooner. Some day, sure, but that's a ways off.