ION Phase 2 - Cambridge's Light Rail Transit

[danbrotherston]

Option A in the report is Fairway to Pinebush only. The previous roughly $1.2B cost estimate was for the construction of the entire length, option C in this report. So you can't really compare them like that and say Option A is a 20% increase from previous.

Was that the same route, though?

Yes, the estimate has always been for the entire length of the Cambridge section. This is the first time I've seen options that consider not doing the entire Cambridge route (which would be probably the worst option). FWIW, I don't recall if the 1.2b was the estimate for the new Cambridge route that involved all those compromises to try to placate unplacatable but loud and angry NIMBYs who don't want any LRT and are entirely unwilling to compromise on that.

[Bob_McBob]

The region's "best estimate" was $1.36 billion in late 2019. By 2021 it had risen to $1.52 billion. Of note, both these numbers include contingency, so they would be comparable to the current 2022 dollar estimate plus 20% contingency, or $3.27 billion. So the actual base cost has more than doubled since the last update even ignoring future escalation.

[tomh009]

Was that the same route, though?

Yes, the estimate has always been for the entire length of the Cambridge section. This is the first time I've seen options that consider not doing the entire Cambridge route (which would be probably the worst option). FWIW, I don't recall if the 1.2b was the estimate for the new Cambridge route that involved all those compromises to try to placate unplacatable but loud and angry NIMBYs who don't want any LRT and are entirely unwilling to compromise on that.

Right. This was my question ... the full length, but is it the same route as previously? If not, are there additional construction and/or expropriation costs that would not have applied to the former route?

[Bytor]

Option A in the report is Fairway to Pinebush only. The previous roughly $1.2B cost estimate was for the construction of the entire length, option C in this report. So you can't really compare them like that and say Option A is a 20% increase from previous.

Was that the same route, though?

No. Option A is not the same as what was originally projected as somewhere between $1.2B and $1.5B.

Option A is only about one-third of the Stage 2 route endorsed back in 2019.

[mgregorasz]

Yes, the estimate has always been for the entire length of the Cambridge section. This is the first time I've seen options that consider not doing the entire Cambridge route (which would be probably the worst option). FWIW, I don't recall if the 1.2b was the estimate for the new Cambridge route that involved all those compromises to try to placate unplacatable but loud and angry NIMBYs who don't want any LRT and are entirely unwilling to compromise on that.

Right. This was my question ... the full length, but is it the same route as previously? If not, are there additional construction and/or expropriation costs that would not have applied to the former route?

If I read the council report correctly, the three route options are a requirement of completing the business case.

[Bytor]

Right. This was my question ... the full length, but is it the same route as previously?

Option C is the same as the previously endorsed Stage 2 route.

If not, are there additional construction and/or expropriation costs that would not have applied to the former route?

The only potential change to the route mentioned is moving the southern terminus from Bruce & Water back to the approximate location of the current Ainslie terminal, the original southern terminus. No other change to to the endorsed route is mentioned, and I would be very surprised if the initial functional design plans have been improved upon for to find new expropriation or new construction costs.

[ac3r]

'It’s never going to get cheaper': LRT expansion into Cambridge will cost a lot more than projected: https://kitchener.ctvnews.ca/it-s-never-...-1.6348388

A lot of the increased cost no doubt has to do with the economic catastrophe that resulted due to an excessively ridiculous reaction global response to the pandemic but I wager a lot also just had to do with waiting too long to do it. I'll be surprised if it ever gets built in the next decade.

If I was a resident of Cambridge I'd want to secede at this point. What a mess.

[bravado]

I don’t think council or the province have the institutional DNA to look inwards and find the source of these costs, because it really doesn’t compare with other parts of the world.

Either we pay that absurd bill and suffer 50+ years of whining over the cost, or not pay it and keep becoming a car sewer with nothing to show for it. Great leadership.

[ac3r]

I suspect the general sentiment will turn into "oh well, it's only Cambridge we're talking about" and then indeed the city will remain cut off, economically disadvantaged and have deadly roads for many years to come.

[cherrypark]

Is there a rail alignment that would enable them to still transport LRVs to the KW ION section and O&M facilities without connecting the two? To me, it seems like so much of the cost is bridging (literally and figuratively) the space between KW and Cambridge with the Preston/Eagle St. mess in the middle making it worse.

Though one would want to eventually connect them, is there an alternate reality where Hespeler - Cambridge North - Galt is its own leg of LRT with a BRT in the middle? I imagine the crossing at the Grand plus all the elevated sections between Fairview and Pinebush are much of this cost escalation, while I don't really understand if the passengers going from Cambridge to Kitchener are really that large in number vs. their respective intracity stops. Just seems like a huge amount of cost, if it were that much, vs. the relative utility of building another 1-2 alignments in K-W and making something more flexible to link Cambridge.

[ZEBuilder]

Is there a rail alignment that would enable them to still transport LRVs to the KW ION section and O&M facilities without connecting the two? To me, it seems like so much of the cost is bridging (literally and figuratively) the space between KW and Cambridge with the Preston/Eagle St. mess in the middle making it worse.

Though one would want to eventually connect them, is there an alternate reality where Hespeler - Cambridge North - Galt is its own leg of LRT with a BRT in the middle? I imagine the crossing at the Grand plus all the elevated sections between Fairview and Pinebush are much of this cost escalation, while I don't really understand if the passengers going from Cambridge to Kitchener are really that large in number vs. their respective intracity stops. Just seems like a huge amount of cost, if it were that much, vs. the relative utility of building another 1-2 alignments in K-W and making something more flexible to link Cambridge.

Based on the chart posted a few pages back Pinebush to Galt is only 1.6 billion yet Fairway to Pinebush is 2.9 billion, so conceivably they could build another OMSF somewhere in Cambridge and it would still be under 2 billion. Then they could increase Fairway to Pinebush bus service to BRT or something similar, then when ridership warrants it the LRT system could be implemented. Then with the remaining 2.5 billion they could do BRT to Cambridge between Pinebush and Fairway (London's BRT is only about 500 million), then with the remaining 2 billion they could build another line in KW, Ottawa? Victoria? University?

Knowing the region though that's not gonna happen because they are going to come up with some justification as to why it must be connected continuously. Even though it might be a better use of resources to build two lines for the cost of a fully continuous Cambridge line.

[danbrotherston]

Is there a rail alignment that would enable them to still transport LRVs to the KW ION section and O&M facilities without connecting the two? To me, it seems like so much of the cost is bridging (literally and figuratively) the space between KW and Cambridge with the Preston/Eagle St. mess in the middle making it worse.

Though one would want to eventually connect them, is there an alternate reality where Hespeler - Cambridge North - Galt is its own leg of LRT with a BRT in the middle? I imagine the crossing at the Grand plus all the elevated sections between Fairview and Pinebush are much of this cost escalation, while I don't really understand if the passengers going from Cambridge to Kitchener are really that large in number vs. their respective intracity stops. Just seems like a huge amount of cost, if it were that much, vs. the relative utility of building another 1-2 alignments in K-W and making something more flexible to link Cambridge.

I don't think this cost escalation has anything to do with what we're building or where...and everything to do with how we build...namely...wastefully and unnecessarily.

It's the same thing with the transit station...

I honestly don't know what to do...if we are unwilling or unable to actually fix these problems...then our society is pretty much over.

[ac3r]

Let's just put Xi Jinping in charge for a few years and the CCP will have high speed rail lines crisscrossing the entire North American continent connecting all of our cities and then those cities will all get dozens of subway/light rail/tram/bus lines with massively dense and walkable neighbourhood because we won't have to worry about bullshit like populist politicians blocking national progress in the name of fiscal conservatism or a group of bored NIMBYs blocking even just a single apartment building from being constructed. 共同富裕 please! :'P

[jeffster]

'It’s never going to get cheaper': LRT expansion into Cambridge will cost a lot more than projected: https://kitchener.ctvnews.ca/it-s-never-...-1.6348388

A lot of the increased cost no doubt has to do with the economic catastrophe that resulted due to an excessively ridiculous reaction global response to the pandemic but I wager a lot also just had to do with waiting too long to do it. I'll be surprised if it ever gets built in the next decade.

If I was a resident of Cambridge I'd want to secede at this point. What a mess.

The actual costs of this project are no-where near what they are claiming. What one needs to do is a forensic accounting to see where this money is actually going. I guarantee that 70% of this is not going to the actual build (supplies, material, labour, design and buying property) but rather is lining the pockets of the elite.

Also with these crazy costs, I doubt we'll get any support from upper level governments. For one thing, a Federal "governing" Liberal party has never helped with any large projects around here - you need the Conservatives for that, and at this point, our country is so far in debt I can't see any help. I would also say that the provincial government would be a hard pass because of lack of support from the federal government, and questioning if it makes sense to run an LRT through what is mostly a sparsely populated city.

There is no way the region could afford this multi-billion dollar project. $4,500,000,000.00 works out to $7,500 for every citizen living in the region and about $8,700 for every citizen in the tri-city. Hell, it works out to $8 for every single person living in North America. That is freaking insane for such a tiny project!

Again, follow the money. There is a reason that everyone involved in something like this lives in a McMansion .. except for those actually doing the work.

[jeffster]

Is there a rail alignment that would enable them to still transport LRVs to the KW ION section and O&M facilities without connecting the two? To me, it seems like so much of the cost is bridging (literally and figuratively) the space between KW and Cambridge with the Preston/Eagle St. mess in the middle making it worse.

Though one would want to eventually connect them, is there an alternate reality where Hespeler - Cambridge North - Galt is its own leg of LRT with a BRT in the middle? I imagine the crossing at the Grand plus all the elevated sections between Fairview and Pinebush are much of this cost escalation, while I don't really understand if the passengers going from Cambridge to Kitchener are really that large in number vs. their respective intracity stops. Just seems like a huge amount of cost, if it were that much, vs. the relative utility of building another 1-2 alignments in K-W and making something more flexible to link Cambridge.

I don't think this cost escalation has anything to do with what we're building or where...and everything to do with how we build...namely...wastefully and unnecessarily.

It's the same thing with the transit station...

I honestly don't know what to do...if we are unwilling or unable to actually fix these problems...then our society is pretty much over.

I often look at older projects and how much they would cost. Even after factoring in inflation, we're stilling getting costs for many builds (be it housing, highways, LRT's, subways, etc) that 10x to 100x. There are three main reasons for this:

1) Top end greed - those at the very top, are benefiting greatly.
2) Pockets being lined. Those involved, like politicians, and some civil servants, are benefactors.
3) "We found a marble!"

The last one also costs a lot of money. Anything found along the way causes delays, makes us find historians, advocates, and everyone in-between, to get involved. While finding an unknown soda bottle from 1945 will be cool, it doesn't require millions of dollars to research to find out where and when this bottle was created.

There are other factors too, which I won't mention here.

The current proposed cost isn't reasonable. And I'd be hell bent seeing my property taxes raise another $500/year to fund this now foolish project. I live on route 2 which is planned for cancellation. No transit options for me or any of my neighbours after that - just a 30 minute walk to the closest alternative route.

Damn, I get cranky thinking how bad our region is run.