GGH Transportation and Growth Plan

[danbrotherston]

For a flight of fancy, (via BlogTO) here is what someone guesses that provincial transportation could look like in 2070. Of particular interest, the creator added a couple heavy rail routes up the CN & CP line from Cambridge to Kitchener plus 4-5 LRT routes while extending the original Ion route up to Elmira.

Low res image

[High res image here] (I'm sorry that I've never figured out how to post photos in WRC)

Side note: how many of us here will be posting to WRC in 2070?

With the currently observed increases in cost, that's going to cost something like 2-3 times the entire GDP of Earth...

But in all seriousness, drawing fantasy maps is all well and good, but we must control costs if we want to continue building any transit at all...

Frankly, I don't think Phase 2 is actually feasible at the new cost estimate...and bluntly...I don't even think it should happen at that cost.

[Bytor]

For a flight of fancy, (via BlogTO) here is what someone guesses that provincial transportation could look like in 2070. Of particular interest, the creator added a couple heavy rail routes up the CN & CP line from Cambridge to Kitchener plus 4-5 LRT routes while extending the original Ion route up to Elmira.

Low res image

[High res image here] (I'm sorry that I've never figured out how to post photos in WRC)

Side note: how many of us here will be posting to WRC in 2070?

So they put in an LRT to Elmira, but nothing to New Hamburg, Ayr, or Wellesley? Pfft!

[ac3r]

That map is quite the train foamer fantasy. You would need the density of Greater Osaka or something for that to exist. No chance, even by 2070. 3070, maybe haha.

[ac3r]

I don't even think it should happen at that cost.

I'm 99% sure it won't. Once that price tag got out to the public, any hope of an LRT line to Cambridge was lost. The only way it'd happen is if both the feds and province handed us blank cheques.

[nms]

Just tossing this out there as an option: what would it take for various entrepreneurs in the area to band together to finance something like ION Phase 2 (among other projects)? Is it even possible under our current funding models?

As a model from the past, the Berlin/Kitchener and Waterloo Street Railway operated as a private company between 1888 and 1907 before it was taken over by Berlin. While I know that more recent Canadian PPP transit projects haven't always worked (looking at you Ottawa and Crosstown!), what would it take to inspire local (non-government) transit investment without waiting for the upper levels of government to pitch in?

[ijmorlan]

Just tossing this out there as an option: what would it take for various entrepreneurs in the area to band together to finance something like ION Phase 2 (among other projects)?  Is it even possible under our current funding models?

As a model from the past, the Berlin/Kitchener and Waterloo Street Railway operated as a private company between 1888 and 1907 before it was taken over by Berlin.  While I know that more recent Canadian PPP transit projects haven't always worked (looking at you Ottawa and Crosstown!), what would it take to inspire local (non-government) transit investment without waiting for the upper levels of government to pitch in?

Transit operated as private companies before private automobiles running on publicly funded (i.e., free at the point of use) roads were available. If we started charging the full cost of road maintenance and construction to users of the roads (never mind how — this is a thought experiment), then it might be possible for public transit to be profitable again.

The problem is not borrowing a bunch of money. Government, especially the provincial and especially especially the federal government, can borrow huge amounts of money cheaply. The issue is that public transit, like roads that are free at the point of use, requires a massive ongoing subsidy in order to work. The positive externalities of good public transit could not be captured by a private owner.

[plam]

Just tossing this out there as an option: what would it take for various entrepreneurs in the area to band together to finance something like ION Phase 2 (among other projects)?  Is it even possible under our current funding models?

As a model from the past, the Berlin/Kitchener and Waterloo Street Railway operated as a private company between 1888 and 1907 before it was taken over by Berlin.  While I know that more recent Canadian PPP transit projects haven't always worked (looking at you Ottawa and Crosstown!), what would it take to inspire local (non-government) transit investment without waiting for the upper levels of government to pitch in?

Transit operated as private companies before private automobiles running on publicly funded (i.e., free at the point of use) roads were available. If we started charging the full cost of road maintenance and construction to users of the roads (never mind how — this is a thought experiment), then it might be possible for public transit to be profitable again.

The problem is not borrowing a bunch of money. Government, especially the provincial and especially especially the federal government, can borrow huge amounts of money cheaply. The issue is that public transit, like roads that are free at the point of use, requires a massive ongoing subsidy in order to work. The positive externalities of good public transit could not be captured by a private owner.

I was reading about Japan, which of course is a totally different context. But highways (tolled) and trains are both privately owned there. The trains are profitable due to land development by JR, which owns the stations, in addition to not-very-cheap fares.

[ac3r]

Just tossing this out there as an option: what would it take for various entrepreneurs in the area to band together to finance something like ION Phase 2 (among other projects)?  Is it even possible under our current funding models?

It's possible, but Waterloo Region isn't significant enough for any company to want to sink billions of dollars into.

[danbrotherston]

Just tossing this out there as an option: what would it take for various entrepreneurs in the area to band together to finance something like ION Phase 2 (among other projects)?  Is it even possible under our current funding models?

As a model from the past, the Berlin/Kitchener and Waterloo Street Railway operated as a private company between 1888 and 1907 before it was taken over by Berlin.  While I know that more recent Canadian PPP transit projects haven't always worked (looking at you Ottawa and Crosstown!), what would it take to inspire local (non-government) transit investment without waiting for the upper levels of government to pitch in?

100% impossible. There simply do not exist people who both have the kind of money this is taking who would also donate it with no strings attached.

Even the most altruistic billionaires still seek to retain control.

That being said, I don't think it should be done...the ION does not make sense at this cost...nor should we proceed forward when we have this fundamental financing problem...it will only make future plans harder.

[nms]

Given that the Caisse Populaire is getting involved with transit projects in Quebec, are the public pensions in Ontario an option?

Or does someone go through the $4.5 Billion estimate and find out why it's so big? Or has inflation just introduced a step-function increase in spending and we can look forward to a decade of infrastructure drought while governments figure out to make big things happen?

[ac3r]

I don't really see how it can be inflation. While I understand it's a complex project, the bare bones of it are pretty basic, especially with the bridges/viaducts they're saying will cost so much. It's essentially just concrete and steel required to build those. Even the tracks on the roads etc aren't complex...again, just concrete, the rails, ballast etc. You can build a 40 floor building for millions, so how is it that some bridges made of the same materials is costing billions?

The most expensive things should presumably be the LRVs themselves, the signaling technology, the electric wires, substations, internet networking and so on. But even that should still be within reason...we built 19km worth of our first LRT line here for less than 1 billion and that included the basic stuff like construction of the actual LRT line but also all the equipment/technology needed to run on it. The Cambridge line is to be around a similar distance. So what is suddenly costing billions more? I really cannot see it being the construction of bridges...it just doesn't seem like that should cost so much to construct.

[Bytor]

Given that the Caisse Populaire is getting involved with transit projects in Quebec, are the public pensions in Ontario an option? 

Or does someone go through the $4.5 Billion estimate and find out why it's so big?  Or has inflation just introduced a step-function increase in spending and we can look forward to a decade of infrastructure drought while governments figure out to make big things happen?

According to the latest construction inflation numbers from StatCan non-residential construction costs are only only up 34% since 2017, not 4x or 300%. The $2.72B quoted minus escalation to 2035 and contingency is still 100% inflation or 3-4x  more than what it actually has been. 

[clasher]

I'd imagine there's at least twice as many consultants and engineers involved than on a private sector job.

[danbrotherston]

I'd imagine there's at least twice as many consultants and engineers involved than on a private sector job.

"Private sector job"...

Erm...what does that mean...the ION was built by the private sector...there's no evidence to suggest that a different model would be chosen for Phase 2...

[clasher]

Ion was still funded by the gov't, vs. something like a condo building or a steel mill that's just one company building it.