10-23-2019, 02:49 PM
I don't think it's that straightforward to predict. A lot of voters flip between the Liberals and Conservatives, possibly more than vote strategically for Liberals. It's reasonable to believe that some of those voters would put Liberal and Conservative as 1-2 in some order and have third parties lower on the ballot. Similarly, I think a fair number of Green supporters would put the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals on a ballot, especially if they manage to put together a halfway reasonable plan for climate change.
A ranked ballot would also result in a changed political landscape. The Conservatives might not feel like they have to be so beholden to their base, and drift more to the center. A new social conservative party might emerge to their right. A lot of Green Party supporters are actually generally more conservative in the fiscal sense and wouldn't necessarily throw their support to the Liberals. I know that it apparently would favour the Liberals most of all, but I believe that's only really true if parties remain static and don't respond to the change, which is absurd.
A ranked ballot would also result in a changed political landscape. The Conservatives might not feel like they have to be so beholden to their base, and drift more to the center. A new social conservative party might emerge to their right. A lot of Green Party supporters are actually generally more conservative in the fiscal sense and wouldn't necessarily throw their support to the Liberals. I know that it apparently would favour the Liberals most of all, but I believe that's only really true if parties remain static and don't respond to the change, which is absurd.