2019 Federal Election

[MidTowner]

I believe the Liberals have the possibility of campaigning to younger voters with the same type of more progressive rhetoric they used in 2015; and to older, more moderate voters with their actual record of governance since.

Amongst my group of friends, the Liberals have pretty much destroyed their chances - they did that as soon as they cancelled electoral reform. That's not to say strategic voting won't be a factor, but I still expect to see a lot of younger people swinging back to the NDP or Green Party.

I know a lot of people who say that, too. I question how many of them will vote NDP in the face of a Tory victory. Especially given that, those of my friends plugged in enough to be interested or passionate about issues like electoral reform will be aware that, in many ridings, the choice will be between sending a Conservative or a Liberal to Ottawa.

One disadvantage the Liberals definitely have is that the Singh will not be tempted to try to move to the right of the Liberals as Mulcair did in 2015. With no credible expectation of forming government, they will not give the Liberals the opportunity to outflank them on the left on any issue, and will make it much harder for progressives to vote Trudeau than last time.

All that said, I think that both the NDP and the Tories will present as relatively more extreme than they have in recent elections, given the Liberals plenty of opportunity to capture most centrists, which describes most Canadians.