ION - Waterloo Region's Light Rail Transit

[Canard]

As for Ion's opening day, perhaps it is time for a poll? Based on current progress:
1) on time
2) early
3) late
4) really late

I'm anticipating 3 ("late") by about 6 months.   More below.

I don’t believe an opening date has been published so even if one were to estimate an opening date based on progress it would be hard to say whether it was an early or late date.

I've always heard "Fall 2017" or "Late 2017" from any of the official project team, regional Government or GrandLinq folks.  (CTV, public consultations, newspaper, etc)

All I’ve heard (from non-rumour sources) is that the LRVs are to be delivered starting in approximately July of this year and should all be on the property before the end of this year; and the system is supposed to be completed in 2017.

That's the project schedule, yeah - all 14 trains on-site by the end of 2016.  I've heard rumblings that we're on track (ha!) to get one train on time, this fall, for testing on the spur... but that subsequent trains will be delayed (perhaps significantly).  I don't think we'll have all 14 trains until well into 2017.  I'm guessing that a big part of that comes down to Toronto's FLEXITY Outlook order being so woefully behind schedule.  The optics of keeping 14 trains for Waterloo on-time but delaying a significantly larger order for Toronto even further are terrible.  Slipping one in there for us so we have something to play with doesn't look so bad.  We can probably limp along at opening with 4 trains minimum to start in "service preview" mode.

As for my "late" prediction above... most modern Light Rail systems need somewhere around 6-9 months of system testing before they ever open to the public.  We can start Waterloo Spur testing likely this fall (contingent on yard track, catenary, and power connections going in this summer), but trains can't continue past Victoria until the grade separation is done... scheduled to be complete late 2016.  So if that goes late at all, add 9 months onto that and you're already at the end of 2017.  It doesn't allow for a single misstep anywhere else.  They haven't really even touched Duke or Victoria and with all the trouble they had on Charles between Victoria and Benton, I'm imagining more of the same, there.

So, yeah, it sucks, but I think mid-2018 is more the timeframe we'll be looking at.  9 months late wouldn't be at all unusual.  Many Light Rail systems have opened 5-10 years late around the world.

He hasn't exactly established his claimed status, has he. It's easy to go online and claim you know something, and then not share any information.

I should know better - we have kids that do this all the time in roller coaster forums. "The Dippin' Dots guy told me we're getting a B&M Launched Wing Coaster with 8 inversions at Wonderland for 2017!!"

There's an old saying in the coaster forums regarding insider information and rumours: Those who talk, don't know, and those who known, don't talk...