ION Phase 2 - Cambridge's Light Rail Transit

[Bytor]

This last part is getting close to the point, but isn't quite there.

Basically Bytor's assumption, which could be true or false depending on other factors, is that an LRT would have exactly the same ridership as a bus.

The problem in the region is that this assumption SHOULD be false. In addition to building the LRT we should be rezoning and redeveloping the city to make transit a focus over driving, to make stations accessible by bike and walking, to build high density developments near stations, etc. etc.

Not only am I not assuming that an "LRT would have exactly the same ridership as a bus", I'm also not assuming very much at all.

To think that I said that would be a fundamental misunderstanding of my point.

I'm pointing out what happens in the scenario where you put in an LRT too long before ridership has grown enough to make it cost-effective.

Ain't nothin' gonna turn a 4,000 riders a day bus route into a 7,000 riders a day LRT that first year after switch-over so that it's more cost effective than a bus route when it starts. Not zoning, not redevelopment, not any of that stuff you mentioned. Maybe you'll get 4,400 riders (1+10%) instead of the 4,160 (+4%) you would have expected without the LRT, but not a 59% increase in one year. Even to be at 7,000/day by the third year would still be an incredible (and highly unlikely) +17% for three years in a row. None of those policies you mention, even if adhered to most strenuously, would have that much of an effect that quickly.

Ridership on an LRT in the first year will not be dramatically higher, even with the bump that higher order service typically brings, as the data for the 200, 7 and 301 shows us. Fall 2019 ridership was only 6.5% over that of Fall 2018, and around that time GRT was averaging about 4% growth per year.

At 4% average growth it will take you about 12 years to growth from 4,400 riders to 7,000 riders. That's 12 years of wasting money that could have better been spent elsewhere on other routes.

It would be another fundamental misunderstanding to think that I said that the growth rate would never change.

Even if transit growth were accelerated to 7% (what GRT's average growth rate was prior to 2013) you're still talking about 7 years of wasting money.

The bigger that gap is between average weekday ridership and the threshold for an LRT to be more cost-effective than a bus route when an LRT starts service, the more money you'll be wasting each year and the more years it will take to get to and exceed that threshold.

THAT is my point.

The stuff you want to get done, all of which I agree with BTW, will at best only shorten how long you are wasting money if you put an LRT in too early.