07-12-2023, 03:17 PM
Everybody seems to think that $4.5B is the final, absolute, no other answer possible, cost.
I keep pointing out that the number is from a study report that only need to be -25% to 50% accurate but people just ignore this even though $4.5B is far, far larger than any inflation we've seen from the pandemic or pre-pandemic infrastructure inflation, not to mention a ridiculously large contingency component because of that ridiculous inflation estimate.
So if you take that supposed $2.721B for the full Stage 2 as the 150%, you can see that it's really only $1.814B, a number that is far more in line with what StatCan says the inflation rate has been for construction. Add 3% a year for 5 years for a construction start in 2028 (as per the Region's own timeline in that study) and that's $2.1B and a 20% contingency is still only $2.5B.
So all the focus on the upper most, least likely range of teh cost estimate instead of the far more likely middle ground?
I keep pointing out that the number is from a study report that only need to be -25% to 50% accurate but people just ignore this even though $4.5B is far, far larger than any inflation we've seen from the pandemic or pre-pandemic infrastructure inflation, not to mention a ridiculously large contingency component because of that ridiculous inflation estimate.
So if you take that supposed $2.721B for the full Stage 2 as the 150%, you can see that it's really only $1.814B, a number that is far more in line with what StatCan says the inflation rate has been for construction. Add 3% a year for 5 years for a construction start in 2028 (as per the Region's own timeline in that study) and that's $2.1B and a 20% contingency is still only $2.5B.
So all the focus on the upper most, least likely range of teh cost estimate instead of the far more likely middle ground?