04-07-2023, 02:28 PM
(04-05-2023, 04:39 PM)Bytor Wrote:(04-04-2023, 10:20 PM)KevinL Wrote: It's the number (and length) of bridges involved, plus the overall rise in general expenses we've been seeing since the pandemic. I'm honestly not that surprised.
The length and the bridges of Stage 2 explain why the original cost estimate was $1.5B compared to the $818M of the slightly longer Stage 1, so that is still part of the current estimate.
However, even the inflation we've seen during the past 2 years doesn't turn $1.5B int 4.5B, a 3x increase. That would require 10 years of sustained 11.5% yearly inflation.
If you look at the chart on the previous page, you will see the route A option at $1.8M (top left figure), a roughly 20% increase from the pre-pandemic estimate. The preferred route is now C, though, which is $2.7B -- about 50% higher than A.
The cost escalation (over about 12 years) is about $1B, taking it to about $3.7B. And then a 20% contingency/buffer to allow for cost overruns. And that's how we end up at about $4.5B.