04-05-2023, 04:56 PM
(04-05-2023, 04:39 PM)Bytor Wrote:(04-04-2023, 10:20 PM)KevinL Wrote: It's the number (and length) of bridges involved, plus the overall rise in general expenses we've been seeing since the pandemic. I'm honestly not that surprised.
The length and the bridges of Stage 2 explain why the original cost estimate was $1.5B compared to the $818M of the slightly longer Stage 1, so that is still part of the current estimate.
However, even the inflation we've seen during the past 2 years doesn't turn $1.5B int 4.5B, a 3x increase. That would require 10 years of sustained 11.5% yearly inflation.
Construction inflation was running around 6% annually before the pandemic, and has increased significantly since. It's hard to know where it will land over the next 10 years, but that's actually not a totally unbelievable number.
What that says about our society is another problem. Our inability to build things (housing, transit, etc) is reaching a crisis point. If we don't change course we've got a real issue.