GO Transit

[taylortbb]

I don't think that it is right to say that they are 100% focused on commuters into downtown Toronto. I regularly take the GO bus/train to and from Richmond Hill and don't go anywhere near downtown.

100% was definitely rhetorical exaggeration, but I think the point is valid that Go is "focused" on the commuter market. It's not they don't offer other services, but their raison d'être remains commuters.

And few companies are going 100% remote. An outlook of 20-40% remote seems fairly typical from where I sit. But it's early days still.

20-40% remote is still 60-80% lower commuter volume. KW to Toronto is just too far, absent true HSR that could do it in under an hour I just don't think we're ever going to see significant commuter volume.

I'm actually on the whole fairly remote work skeptic, I personally want to be in the office 5 days/week (though I want flexibility to work remotely when desired). But I have a 10 min walk for a commute, for anyone with a two hour commute I think they'll take full advantage of remote as many days as possible, with a corresponding drop in ridership.

I think the pandemic will long term fundamentally alter Go travel patterns, with less commuter volume and more leisure volume. People heading into Toronto for the evening, rather than the full work day. At a minimum though, I think the logic is fundamentally faulty to predict the ridership of the 2pm train based on the 7am train. They serve entirely different markets, and aren't substitutes for each other.