ION Phase 2 - Cambridge's Light Rail Transit

[Bytor]

Yeah, it's like the old phrase 'don't measure the need for a bridge by counting the number of people swimming across the river'. There could be a LOT of latent demand unlocked.

And a 10 minute headway bus route would show you what that demand is quite handily since it's in or close to the zone of "just go to a bus stop and wait as it will be there soon" since the median wait time will be 5 minutes.

And that's exactly what we have in route 302, a 10 minute bus route.

If that route has not yet reached 4,000 riders a day, why do people think an LRT covering roughly the same route today would reach 7,000/day to be able to be cost competitive with a bus route?

Would a LRT increase ridership? Sure. Would it double the ridership from current? No, of course not.

[ijmorlan]

If that route has not yet reached 4,000 riders a day, why do people think an LRT covering roughly the same route today would reach 7,000/day to be able to be cost competitive with a bus route?

Would a LRT increase ridership? Sure. Would it double the ridership from current? No, of course not.

Because it’s well known that many more people will ride an LRT than will ride a bus. That being said, I don’t know that it would double quickly, but it’s believable that it could.

[dtkvictim]

Yeah, it's like the old phrase 'don't measure the need for a bridge by counting the number of people swimming across the river'. There could be a LOT of latent demand unlocked.

And a 10 minute headway bus route would show you what that demand is quite handily since it's in or close to the zone of "just go to a bus stop and wait as it will be there soon" since the median wait time will be 5 minutes.

And that's exactly what we have in route 302, a 10 minute bus route.

If that route has not yet reached 4,000 riders a day, why do people think an LRT covering roughly the same route today would reach 7,000/day to be able to be cost competitive with a bus route?

Would a LRT increase ridership? Sure. Would it double the ridership from current? No, of course not.

Does anyone have the 2019 statistics to show what impact phase 1 had on ridership?

Just anecdotally, I've taken maybe... 5 buses since the LRT launched. And I've taken the LRT for hundreds of trips. When I go somewhere that isn't on the LRT route, I walk or bike if practical, or otherwise I take an Uber/taxi. Buses just aren't in the same class of transportation for me, and it's not just about headways.

I'm sure you're probably right that ridership wouldn't double overnight, but I think it's a bigger difference than you are giving credit for. I have to imagine most of the people taking the 302 are highly captive, and there is a lot of voluntary ridership to be gained.

[SF22]

And a 10 minute headway bus route would show you what that demand is quite handily since it's in or close to the zone of "just go to a bus stop and wait as it will be there soon" since the median wait time will be 5 minutes.

And that's exactly what we have in route 302, a 10 minute bus route.

If that route has not yet reached 4,000 riders a day, why do people think an LRT covering roughly the same route today would reach 7,000/day to be able to be cost competitive with a bus route?

Would a LRT increase ridership? Sure. Would it double the ridership from current? No, of course not.

Does anyone have the 2019 statistics to show what impact phase 1 had on ridership?

Just anecdotally, I've taken maybe... 5 buses since the LRT launched. And I've taken the LRT for hundreds of trips. When I go somewhere that isn't on the LRT route, I walk or bike if practical, or otherwise I take an Uber/taxi. Buses just aren't in the same class of transportation for me, and it's not just about headways.

I'm sure you're probably right that ridership wouldn't double overnight, but I think it's a bigger difference than you are giving credit for. I have to imagine most of the people taking the 302 are highly captive, and there is a lot of voluntary ridership to be gained.

Agree with the bolded line above. The LRT is a smoother ride, feels more modern, and doesn't require potentially standing in line to pay my fare with the driver. When bringing my kid's stroller onboard, there is more space for us on the LRT than on a bus. If given the opportunity to take the bus vs the LRT, all other things being equal, I would choose the train every time.

[bravado]

Expecting buses to operate well and be a desirable option on Hespeler Road is like saying buses are a useful way to get down Fairway Rd. It’s an awful place and the LRT is the only way to cut through that mega-stroad.

[ijmorlan]

Expecting buses to operate well and be a desirable option on Hespeler Road is like saying buses are a useful way to get down Fairway Rd. It’s an awful place and the LRT is the only way to cut through that mega-stroad.

Of course it will help if they adopt more reasonable operating rules, starting with operating at a top speed 10km/h faster than the typical speed of motor vehicle traffic rather than piously sticking to the speed limit.

[neonjoe]

Our LRT system was built primarily as a catalyst for urban intensification. Intensifying the corridor will lead to more ridership.
A bus line has a far more difficult time changing development patterns.

[Bytor]

If that route has not yet reached 4,000 riders a day, why do people think an LRT covering roughly the same route today would reach 7,000/day to be able to be cost competitive with a bus route?

Would a LRT increase ridership? Sure. Would it double the ridership from current? No, of course not.

Because it’s well known that many more people will ride an LRT than will ride a bus. That being said, I don’t know that it would double quickly, but it’s believable that it could.

Eventually double it? Yes, in the 2028 time frame, sure. But this whole conversation has been about people griping that 2028 was way too long to wait for stage two and then talking like turning 301 into an LRT have bumped up the ridership immediately if not sooner in 2019.

In November 2015 the southern half of iXpress 200 was 72,844 boardings or about 2,780 per average weekday. In November 2016 was 3,030 per weekday. It was, roughly, 30% of the ridership of the total route during that time.

I don't have numbers for the southern half of iXpress 200 past April 2017, but if I had to guess, based on other numbers on growth from various Regional Council reports, I would guess ~3,400 in November 2017, and ~3,700 in November 2018.

Up until this point we're talking about 10% yearly growth for what would become the 302.

In November 2019, 302 was 114,313 boardings or almost 4,400 per weekday.

That was probably 18% growth from November 2018.

I could see up to 25% growth, or ~4,600/weekday, for of a Stage 2 built right away. Maybe 30% or ~4,800/weekday, but that's pushing as it would outstrip the growth percentage that did happen in K-W and would be incredibly out o character for Cambridge transit patterns.

TL;DR — thinking that the southern half as an LRT would have created such a huge bump in Cambridge transit ridership to have made it worthwhile (based on operational cost per ride compared to a bus route) is wishful thinking.

[Bob_McBob]

According to the staff update at the council meeting running right now, the latest cost estimate for the full Stage 2 route they're considering is around $4.5 billion. Is that the same route as the considerably lower $1.5 billion estimate from October 2021?

[Bob_McBob]

And Deutschmann was just trying to have what they're voting on today deferred until August because they "need more consultations".

[panamaniac]

According to the staff update at the council meeting running right now, the latest cost estimate for the full Stage 2 route they're considering is around $4.5 billion. Is that the same route as the considerably lower $1.5 billion estimate from October 2021?

Geez, $4.5B here, $4.5B there - pretty soon it could start to add up!

[ijmorlan]

$4.5G? So it’s planned to be a subway now? What is going on with construction costs?

[bravado]

$4.5G? So it’s planned to be a subway now? What is going on with construction costs?

Technically it’s study and delay costs, with some construction tacked on the hill in the end

[Bob_McBob]

The $4.5 billion is the escalated capital cost of building the preferred route from Fairway to Downtown in 2030-2035, including contingency. The estimated project cost right now is over $2.7 billion. Looking at these numbers, it's hard to believe Stage 2 will ever be built in any form, let alone what the region has been promising for so many years. I just don't believe this is going to happen anymore.

[KevinL]

It's the number (and length) of bridges involved, plus the overall rise in general expenses we've been seeing since the pandemic. I'm honestly not that surprised.