ION Phase 2 - Cambridge's Light Rail Transit

[KevinT]

I honestly believe we as a society are close to new infrastructure never being built. The prices have been inflated like crazy for large scale construction projects, everyone needs to be consulted, everything needs to be studied to death. The fact that they are looking at a completely separate LRT for Cambridge and have a bus connect the 2 systems is crazy. I know they are even debating breaking phase 2 into a couple phases.

I do wonder though if continuous construction in multiple smaller phases may not be the way to go to keep costs down. Right now there is no 'local' institutional knowledge on how to build and maintain LRT systems, and so we end up farming out to consultants and massive one-off international consortiums. Can you imagine if 2 years after phase 1 had opened, we had extended it one stop to Freeport, then a few years later we tackled the Grand and got it to Pinebush, and then a few years later we extended it again to Dundas, etc.? All with semi-local trades that were also bouncing around to small chunks of Hamilton, Finch, and Hurontario? I bet there'd be value in that.

[Vojnik_Vahaj]

I honestly believe we as a society are close to new infrastructure never being built. The prices have been inflated like crazy for large scale construction projects, everyone needs to be consulted, everything needs to be studied to death. The fact that they are looking at a completely separate LRT for Cambridge and have a bus connect the 2 systems is crazy. I know they are even debating breaking phase 2 into a couple phases.

I do wonder though if continuous construction in multiple smaller phases may not be the way to go to keep costs down. Right now there is no 'local' institutional knowledge on how to build and maintain LRT systems, and so we end up farming out to consultants and massive one-off international consortiums. Can you imagine if 2 years after phase 1 had opened, we had extended it one stop to Freeport, then a few years later we tackled the Grand and got it to Pinebush, and then a few years later we extended it again to Dundas, etc.? All with semi-local trades that were also bouncing around to small chunks of Hamilton, Finch, and Hurontario? I bet there'd be value in that.

I remember watching and Alen Fisher video talking about how to lower costs.

[danbrotherston]

I honestly believe we as a society are close to new infrastructure never being built. The prices have been inflated like crazy for large scale construction projects, everyone needs to be consulted, everything needs to be studied to death. The fact that they are looking at a completely separate LRT for Cambridge and have a bus connect the 2 systems is crazy. I know they are even debating breaking phase 2 into a couple phases.

I do wonder though if continuous construction in multiple smaller phases may not be the way to go to keep costs down. Right now there is no 'local' institutional knowledge on how to build and maintain LRT systems, and so we end up farming out to consultants and massive one-off international consortiums. Can you imagine if 2 years after phase 1 had opened, we had extended it one stop to Freeport, then a few years later we tackled the Grand and got it to Pinebush, and then a few years later we extended it again to Dundas, etc.? All with semi-local trades that were also bouncing around to small chunks of Hamilton, Finch, and Hurontario? I bet there'd be value in that.

I agree with this in theory...but this should have been the strategy from the beginning. That being said, this only works if we actually have everyone on the same page and working together, and if the first phases go well...I don't think any of these are guarantees in the region.

That being said, I don't have a better option.

[KevinL]

The 'bouncing around to different projects' is something that could use centralized scheduling, probably from an entity like Metrolinx. Unfortunately that's not how this province works.

[Vojnik_Vahaj]

The 'bouncing around to different projects' is something that could use centralized scheduling, probably from an entity like Metrolinx. Unfortunately that's not how this province works.

Should be though. Down with stupid bureaucracy!

[coriander]

I honestly believe we as a society are close to new infrastructure never being built. The prices have been inflated like crazy for large scale construction projects, everyone needs to be consulted, everything needs to be studied to death. The fact that they are looking at a completely separate LRT for Cambridge and have a bus connect the 2 systems is crazy. I know they are even debating breaking phase 2 into a couple phases.

I do wonder though if continuous construction in multiple smaller phases may not be the way to go to keep costs down. Right now there is no 'local' institutional knowledge on how to build and maintain LRT systems, and so we end up farming out to consultants and massive one-off international consortiums. Can you imagine if 2 years after phase 1 had opened, we had extended it one stop to Freeport, then a few years later we tackled the Grand and got it to Pinebush, and then a few years later we extended it again to Dundas, etc.? All with semi-local trades that were also bouncing around to small chunks of Hamilton, Finch, and Hurontario? I bet there'd be value in that.

I think there's a bit of a misconception here. Indeed, an agency like GRT probably doesn't have the ability to independently pursue projects like these short extensions, and that's a shame. That the operating model seems to preclude that kind of thing doesn't help.
However, it's not like projects is done from a base of no experience. At a low level, many of the people I worked systems with on ECLRT, for instance, were coming from the Confederation Line, iON, etc, and I believe at a higher level too. Many subs were working multiple of HuLRT, ECLRT, FWLRT, but these were on the contractor side and not the client side.

It's definitely true that dependence on outside consulting & on the design-build scheme is strangely high, here. Metrolinx has higher staffing per service area resident than many Euro agencies which are capable of lots of internal engineering work and of management of large DBB expansion procurements. It's not like they're all planners, either; Metrolinx has a very large number of FTEs. Why it prefers various kinds of odd procurements and not designing big projects would be interesting to study.

[coriander]

We refuse to treat cost inflation seriously and it affects much more than just transit.

When Spain and Italy can build subways cheaper and faster than we can build at-grade light rail, the failure is with government who don’t take procurement and corruption and planning seriously.

If you don’t care about transit and whatnot, that’s cool - but a 10x cost in random train projects is also being matched by 10x increases in new schools and hospitals too. It’s absurd and the government is failing all of us when they rely on continuous consulting and engagement instead of just getting jobs done.

I really would like to see what the methodology for the cost assumption that makes headlines is. A lot of the time cost estimates are inflated multiple times by ridiculous contingency, calculating in year-spent dollars, adding random margin, and in the first place working off averages rather than real estimates. I beleive Marco Chitti has written about this problem in Quebec transit expansion cost estimates, which haunt the Montreal tramway plan as it did the REM de L'est.

[bravado]

https://www.cambridgetoday.ca/local-news...e-10074603

Spooner reminded council that Stage 2 to Cambridge remains in "initial business case mode" with a selection of options including do nothing, light rail transit as proposed, or a bus-rapid transit option.

"The plan for this year is to begin our public conversation in May, get some initial public feedback, and be here in Q4 with the costed initial business case looking for your support on an option in order to move to next steps," he said.

[ac3r]

Nice, so by the time they break ground it will cost us maybe 58 billion dollars and we'll be one foot in the grave.

[jeffster]

https://www.cambridgetoday.ca/local-news...e-10074603

Spooner reminded council that Stage 2 to Cambridge remains in "initial business case mode" with a selection of options including do nothing, light rail transit as proposed, or a bus-rapid transit option.

"The plan for this year is to begin our public conversation in May, get some initial public feedback, and be here in Q4 with the costed initial business case looking for your support on an option in order to move to next steps," he said.

Sounds like cold feet for the Ion through Cambridge. Residents should get a discount (and refund) for all monies put towards Ion in KW, much like the townships.

I have to wonder if a true dedicated bi-articulated bus system would be good. And by true - needs it's own space and protected (you see these in Australia). It would have guides for the bus wheels, so not like what Mississauga has with Mi-Way.

[ac3r]

I don't think dedicated bus rapid transit is really the answer. That is still incredibly costly to do if you build separate roads/bridges for it. BRT would also be quicker to hit capacity, so you'd just have to sink more money into it to add buses, drivers, constant maintenance since buses are heavy and would wear down the roads quickly, snow removal and much more.

Light rail is really the best answer for this region at present time. Maybe, though, we should consider pausing the idea of light rail in Cambridge for now. Even ignoring the cost, transit should not be seen as an economic tool before it's thought of as a transit tool which is already how the region thinks. Build it and the developers shall come isn't how transit systems should be considered. Since Cambridge is generally anti-development and anti-progress I don't see why they need an LRT yet anyway. Even if we built it, the council has proven they aren't ready to govern like they're part of a large and rapidly growing region. If they magically got an LRT next Thursday, think about how useless that actually would be if they don't look at the areas surrounding stations as somewhere to densify with new development.

Improving the connection between Fairway Mall and Cambridge would be a good start. It definitely needs more express buses. Add a lot more buses so the 302 isn't always packed, while also adding more trips to the 206 (or whatever it is). Increase the frequency of popular routes in Cambridge itself...maybe add some new routes. If and when Cambridge ever grows up, then maybe revisiting the light rail will make more sense. By then maybe inflation won't be so bad as well and the cost will go down. Plus, it would give more time to refine the route. The Cambridge line is so bad as it is now with so much of it running on streets.

[neonjoe]

I don't think dedicated bus rapid transit is really the answer. That is still incredibly costly to do if you build separate roads/bridges for it. BRT would also be quicker to hit capacity, so you'd just have to sink more money into it to add buses, drivers, constant maintenance since buses are heavy and would wear down the roads quickly, snow removal and much more.

Light rail is really the best answer for this region at present time. Maybe, though, we should consider pausing the idea of light rail in Cambridge for now. Even ignoring the cost, transit should not be seen as an economic tool before it's thought of as a transit tool which is already how the region thinks. Build it and the developers shall come isn't how transit systems should be considered. Since Cambridge is generally anti-development and anti-progress I don't see why they need an LRT yet anyway. Even if we built it, the council has proven they aren't ready to govern like they're part of a large and rapidly growing region. If they magically got an LRT next Thursday, think about how useless that actually would be if they don't look at the areas surrounding stations as somewhere to densify with new development.

Improving the connection between Fairway Mall and Cambridge would be a good start. It definitely needs more express buses. Add a lot more buses so the 302 isn't always packed, while also adding more trips to the 206 (or whatever it is). Increase the frequency of popular routes in Cambridge itself...maybe add some new routes. If and when Cambridge ever grows up, then maybe revisiting the light rail will make more sense. By then maybe inflation won't be so bad as well and the cost will go down. Plus, it would give more time to refine the route. The Cambridge line is so bad as it is now with so much of it running on streets.

Agree 100%. When you aren't trying to cause a stir you are perfectly rational and balanced.

[bravado]

For some reason we keep telling Cambridge to go fuck themselves, and they seem to be cranky about it? Why won't those stupid suburban rubes pay 4x what we paid (with their money)? Are they stupid?

You guys should hear yourselves. It's almost as if Phase 1 had no opposition at all in enlightened KW a decade ago in your memories. Either way, failing to support city-building projects in Cambridge is just gonna drag the rest of you down over the years too. If Phase 2 isn't built, then good luck getting support for Phase 3 or whatever.

"why won't those idiots build a giant public project in the age of Doug Ford? It wasn't hard at all in KW when the Liberals ran everything and people didn't distrust government projects!"

It's hard enough trying to convince my neighbours that the city needs renewal, but having to fight condescending snobs with large engaged student + tech worker populations and have cities that weren't cobbled together by car-loving baby boomers next door makes it impossible.

[ac3r]

It's not really that we want Cambridge to F off (maybe sometimes hah...but that's just friendly city rivalry...!), but rather that there are numerous hurdles to overcome as well as a regressive attitude which most of the population has.

Most importantly, the projected cost is absolutely absurd for what they're proposing thus far. While it would have been high no matter what due to the infrastructure required with new bridges to cross the awkward geography of the Grand River Valley, it's still super costly. It's hard to sell the region a project that is projected to cost over 5 billion dollars. There are some apologists on this forum that say that number is way higher than it would really be, but that's just pulling shit copium out of their ass. We've never had a project cost that amount of money. Even the Conestoga Expressway cost just slightly over 16 million in 2023 dollars (might be closer to 17+ at this point) and that was an entire urban expressway that cut through the cities and took massive amounts of land appropriation, engineering and infrastructure development to complete. Asking the citizens of Waterloo Region to be willing to spend over 5 billion in an era where most people can afford groceries is a hard sell.

And the second major problem is Cambridge itself. Yeah it deserves rapid transit. They should have had it the day the LRT opened. But we're into 2025 now, dealing with the economic repercussions of the pandemic still, but also numerous wars around the world that have just driven costs way up and potentially more inflation as a result of tariffs. It's rather hard to reconcile the costs of a megaproject like the Cambridge LRT line when the council and seemingly the vast majority of people in Cambridge already oppose. Costs aside, hasn't Cambridge proven time and time again ever since this rapid urban growth kicked off that they still don't see themselves as a real city? They oppose nearly every major residential development that isn't a sprawling suburb or tiny townhouse project. How do we expect them to approve dense urban developments that would inevitably try to pop up around each station? We have to justify the 5 billion dollar price tag somehow and if the council struggles to approve anything, I can't see them approving anything up to and including skyscraper projects like Kitchener and Waterloo have been doing.

I genuinely don't believe we should green light the Cambridge line until we do a total shakeup of City of Cambridge council as well as departmental staff, so we know we have people in office who actually understand the value of a light rail line, want to see Cambridge improve and who want to further integrate Cambridge into the region as a whole. If we magic wand an LRT into existence tomorrow, it won't really do a whole lot of good other than waste money simply because the city and its people struggle to understand the importance of this. While yeah they got ripped off when they had to pay into it only to get nothing but an extra bus route, they've proven they aren't yet ready to act like a real city. Maybe an option is to just give em more buses (they always talk about how buses could do what an LRT does...why not let them demonstrate that, eh?) so that what they paid in taxes for the LRT at least goes to something. Or, we refund them and just put them on the back burner, waiting for the day there is an actual progressive city council and more citizens who can advocate for an LRT project. Because right now, a 5+ billion dollar price tag to build a transit line they seemingly don't even want and that the council wouldn't even know what to do with suggests that 5 billion could just be better allocated to the Kitchener-Wateroo line...or literally anything else. 5 billion goes a long way. Just 500 million put into GRT bus transit improvements in the City of Cambridge would do a lot of good.

[dunkalunk]

I remember back in 2008, when the region did the ranking of route options, on the Fairway to Eagle segment, the BRT options outperformed the LRT options


https://web.archive.org/web/20140412173358/http://rapidtransit.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/multimedialibrary/resources/pcc_handout_p2s2_evaluation_results.pdf


I do think considering BRT as an option has merit, especially since the Highway 8 and 401 corridors are already there and have bypass shoulders to make the connection quick.
I think prioritizing speeding up the existing connection between Fairway station and Pinebush via the River Rd Extension, dedicated ramps to Sportsworld and Pinebush with dedicated lanes and signal priority makes more sense than spending 2 billion dollars to cross Grand River, Speed River, and CP rail corridor in Preston on new elevated right-of-way.

The Highway 8 corridor from Fairway to Sportsworld can't really be urbanized; it runs through hidden valley and on pillars through a floodplain. Our LRVs also can't travel faster than 80km/h, meaning that traffic on Highway 8/401 will still be faster than light rail for getting into Cambridge. Allowing GO onto the ION corridor to a terminal at Sportsworld would also improve their connections.