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Population and Housing
#46
It would be interested to see the actual study. Does the 32,000 beds include all forms of 'student' housing in the area, or just the private beds? Is it possible that the surplus are actually the lower end units that have not been taken off the market (ie reverted back to single-family housing)? Similarly, I would wonder what will happen to some of the apartments that were cheaply built in the last decade but that may not be as well-maintained as they could be. That could skew supply.
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#47
I've been tracking student housing for over 25 years. At no point in time has there been a surplus in housing in that time period. To the contrary, we lived in a state of dire shortages. This makes the current more balanced situation look like an oversupply, but only because after a prolong drought the first rain feels like a deluge.

Back in 1990 prices were around $250-275 per room and they slowly moved up to $450-500 per room. Then the Luxe and other high end developments happened and prices jumped overnight to $500-750 per room. This took place at a time when there was no inflation, so this was a rather steep increase. Since then things have remained pretty much around that range, with not-as-desirable lower-priced units around $450 and anything nice and new at $550 and over.

Until the last two weeks that is, when, first, we saw the return of the sub-$400 units. I hadn't seen anything listed in that range outside of Summer sublets in over a decade, yet today Kijiji has a decent supply of Fall'2015 units going for under $400. High end developments have started offering selective one month's free rent, which amounts to a discount from $650-750 down to $600-700.

We should expect most of the jump to $750 to be given back over the next two years, since there is nothing justifying such a sharp increase. In other words, if construction is allowed to continue at this pace, as it should, I expect prices to pull back to a $450-500 per rent, with the upper end units going from $525-575, down from $650-750.
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#48
Article from CBC stating Waterloo Region's population is 511,000.
Why is there such a considerable difference compared to the signs one passes by to enter Waterloo Region that have stated 564K over the past few years?

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/kitch...-1.3442142
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#49
For example the region's website has the population estimated at 568K at the end of 2014.
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#50
Statistics Canada does not include the 50,000+ temporary residents in its counts the region does because it stop needs to provide services to that population. They publish an annual report that goes in to the differences I'll try to find the link. The other difference is that statcan's estimate is as of July 1 each year the region's is as of December 31.
Everyone move to the back of the bus and we all get home faster.
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#51
Those numbers are for the KCW CMA which doesn't include Wellesley and Wilmot.
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#52
(02-11-2016, 10:03 AM)jamincan Wrote: Those numbers are for the KCW CMA which doesn't include Wellesley and Wilmot.

That's 30,000 people difference right there.
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#53
Perfect this is the information I am trying to obtain, thanks.
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#54
Does the KCW CMA include Woolwich (the most populous of the townships) and North Dumfries?
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#55
(02-11-2016, 12:02 PM)Elmira Guy Wrote: Does the KCW CMA include Woolwich (the most populous of the townships) and North Dumfries?

Yes.

https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/nhs-enm/2011...m=&TABID=3
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#56
I imagine that Wilmot and Wellesley Townships have got to be very close to being incorporated into the KCW CMA. We'll see what happens with the next census.
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#57
It's time again, for the quarterly "oh no there's too much housing" article!


Waterloo facing sizable glut of student housing
http://www.therecord.com/news-story/6342...t-housing/

Quote:WATERLOO — The oversupply of student housing in this city is far worse than previously thought, says an expert who tracks the investment real estate market.

One of the new student apartment buildings in the university town already is in power of sale proceedings, Karl Innanen, managing director of the Waterloo Region office of Colliers International, said Wednesday.

Currently, there is an oversupply of nearly 1,200 beds, but when new developments that are in the works are included, the surplus increases to 8,321 beds, Innanen said during the commercial real estate firm's presentation of its annual report on market trends.

Innanen said the Colliers analysis does not take into account increases in the student population because the University of Waterloo, Wilfrid Laurier University and Conestoga College are forecasting low single-digit growth in enrolment.

That rate of increase won't be nearly enough to absorb the extra beds, he said.

There are 41,440 university and college students in Waterloo, Colliers said. When you take away students who commute to campuses, that number drops to 31,429. The Waterloo skyline is dotted with construction cranes for student apartment buildings. When those buildings are completed, the supply of beds will overshoot the market by 20 per cent, said Innanen.

"I think the student market was overbuilt because people got overzealous and there was no discipline," he said in an interview. "Unfortunately, it was a rampant supply of brand new, nice buildings."

How unfortunate.

More in the article.
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#58
(02-25-2016, 12:07 PM)Markster Wrote: It's time again, for the quarterly "oh no there's too much housing" article!

Rental prices certainly do not support this conclusion, neither do the line ups for Icon 133.
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#59
So they become apartments for large families who don't want/can't afford a house. What a tragedy!
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#60
(02-25-2016, 08:06 PM)DHLawrence Wrote: So they become apartments for large families who don't want/can't afford a house. What a tragedy!

Not at $3,000 a month they don't.  Somebody's going to take a bath.
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