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Population and Housing
#16
I did not know that. So the Region allowed for no additional land for new greenfield housing?
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#17
Year-end population estimates computed by the region are in.
"The population estimate for year-end 2014 is 568,500. This represents an increase of 6,400 people or 1.14% over the population estimate for 2013 of 562,100."

http://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/region...5-0324.pdf (page 38).

In 2013 the region projected a population of 569,000 in 2014 so I would say that their model did pretty well again this year.
Everyone move to the back of the bus and we all get home faster.
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#18
(03-21-2015, 09:32 AM)ookpik Wrote: The article failed to mention the university student population. That currently numbers about 50,000 between UW and WLU. Presumably that number is growing at least as fast as the population as a whole. That's almost all apartments and mostly near the universities.

Given that elementary school populations are not rising dramatically, it stands to reason that the domestic university student population would eventually stop rising as well.  The universities claim that they already have enough residence stock for their needs.

WLU blamed part of their enrollment decline on the decline of applications to their arts programs.  The Ontario Society of Professional Engineers is reporting rising underemployment among engineers in Ontario so Waterloo could end up with the same situation soon enough.

At what point will Waterloo be overbuilt?  Can higher density buildings designed for the student lifestyle (eg 5 bedrooms to a unit; residence style amenities etc) be repurposed fast enough to attract other demographics? 
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#19
(03-23-2015, 11:25 AM)nms Wrote: Given that elementary school populations are not rising dramatically...
Valid points. Thanks. We need to pay more attention to demographics in making planning decisions for the next few decades.

I suppose one way to mitigate declining university enrollment would be to attract more international students. Apparently UW has already mined this opportunity with great results, but WLU has not. I can understand why foreign students might not be interested in liberal arts. Perhaps WLU's increased emphasis on business-related programs will be more effective. Anyway, just musing.
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#20
(03-23-2015, 11:25 AM)nms Wrote: Can higher density buildings designed for the student lifestyle (eg 5 bedrooms to a unit; residence style amenities etc) be repurposed fast enough to attract other demographics? 
I have trouble seeing the 5-bedroom stock converting any time in the near future. It's an interesting scenario we have here. In Toronto, they're having to force developers to build more 3-bedroom units to keep towers more family friendly. Here in Waterloo, we'll have this large interesting stock of, let's call it "4-bedroom + Den", that will now be around in perpetuity. Perhaps some of the low-rise ones on quieter streets might one day be converted to condominiums and sold off. I could see owner-occupancy as a possibility then.

This will only really happen once rents for 5-bedroom units start dropping, as they are currently at $2500~$3000/unit, which is more than a single-family-home mortgage.

As we see more 2/3 bedroom units come on-line at similar prices per bedroom to the 5-bedroom stock, we should see some downward price pressure.
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#21
(03-23-2015, 11:25 AM)nms Wrote:
(03-21-2015, 09:32 AM)ookpik Wrote: The article failed to mention the university student population. That currently numbers about 50,000 between UW and WLU. Presumably that number is growing at least as fast as the population as a whole. That's almost all apartments and mostly near the universities.

Given that elementary school populations are not rising dramatically, it stands to reason that the domestic university student population would eventually stop rising as well.  The universities claim that they already have enough residence stock for their needs.

WLU blamed part of their enrollment decline on the decline of applications to their arts programs.  The Ontario Society of Professional Engineers is reporting rising underemployment among engineers in Ontario so Waterloo could end up with the same situation soon enough.

At what point will Waterloo be overbuilt?  Can higher density buildings designed for the student lifestyle (eg 5 bedrooms to a unit; residence style amenities etc) be repurposed fast enough to attract other demographics? 

Elementary schools are actually VERY full.  It's high schools that have seen a dip in enrollment at the moment.
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#22
(03-24-2015, 06:45 AM)Spokes Wrote:
(03-23-2015, 11:25 AM)nms Wrote: Given that elementary school populations are not rising dramatically, it stands to reason that the domestic university student population would eventually stop rising as well.  The universities claim that they already have enough residence stock for their needs.

WLU blamed part of their enrollment decline on the decline of applications to their arts programs.  The Ontario Society of Professional Engineers is reporting rising underemployment among engineers in Ontario so Waterloo could end up with the same situation soon enough.

At what point will Waterloo be overbuilt?  Can higher density buildings designed for the student lifestyle (eg 5 bedrooms to a unit; residence style amenities etc) be repurposed fast enough to attract other demographics? 

Elementary schools are actually VERY full.  It's high schools that have seen a dip in enrollment at the moment.

They may be full, but the elementary population in the Region is dropping for now.  It's always been a challenge for school boards to manage their building resources as populations wax and wane in different neighbourhoods.  I know that when the school in my neighbourhood opened, it was designed for 400 children, peaked at 750, was predicted to drop below 300 and is now somewhere in the 500 student range.  

Between this current school year and next year, the Waterloo Catholic and Public Boards anticipate having ~1300 fewer students according to this Record article.  The same article notes that Catholic enrollment will continue to decline through 2018 while the Public Board anticipates a stabilization by 2017.

Provincially, the total school age population across all Boards in Ontario in 1994-95 (the oldest stats that I could find quickly, and the middle of the Baby Boom Echo) was 2,069,989.  The 2013-14 preliminary estimate of the school age population is 2,015,423, or about a 3% drop in the population.  To get an idea of where the school population might be heading in 10-15 years, there were 148,424 Grade 11 students in the 2013-14 school year compared with 125,717 kindergarten age students in the same period.  I excluded JK and Grade 12 numbers since I expect that there is under-enrollment in JK and over-enrollment in Grade 12 due to student victory laps.
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#23
St. Berndette's School (which now serves the downtown core's Catholic students in the Cedar Hill boundary) had their first increase in students in years due to the full-day JK program.
For the first time they had enough students to run 3 classrooms. They stuck with 2, but if they stay at current enrollment, it will be one of the first times in recent history that the 2010 JK starts will not have a split class from JK-8.
That is great news for downtown Kitchener, and I suspect Suddaby would boast the same enrollment bump.
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#24
St Bernadette's must have experienced at least a small enrollment increase after the Joy townhouse complex was completed. I think the Habitat for Humanity project on Kehl St would also be in their catchment area. That whole part of town has good potential for more infill and higher density housing, imo.
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#25
(05-01-2015, 03:21 PM)panamaniac Wrote: St Bernadette's must have experienced at least a small enrollment increase after the Joy townhouse complex was completed.  I think the Habitat for Humanity project on Kehl St would also be in their catchment area.  That whole part of town has good potential for more infill and higher density housing, imo.


I totally agree. Another Joy development would be great. My dream is for the old yard on Madison at the tracks to be transformed from the current homeless camp into something....BIG. With all of the homes south of Courtland and North of Mill boasting old trees, private yards, etc., a decent townhouse/condo development would really bring something to the area. Am guessing any development on the old Schneider's land would again be in general catchment...a quick search of 233 Borden S (corner of Borden/Courtland) shows attendance at St. Bernadette's.

I'll see if PoloGroup can make anything of the old Barra site.

Also, those businesses on Whitney...so out of place with how the new official plan is starting to take shape, no?
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#26
If you mean the old Robson Lang site on Madison, I'm afraid you may be in for a long wait - I am pretty sure that the site is badly contaminated.  As for Witney, I don't really agree.  It's a bit unsightly but there's still a good bit of employment along that strip.  Although, if Schneider Creek were ever re-naturalized down there, it might be an attractive area for new housing ......

Re the future redevelopment of the Schneider lands - if the culvert under the tracks were reopened, St Bernadettes (and Queen Elizabeth PS) would be in easy walking distance.  That's assuming they don't open new schools as part of the redevelopment.
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#27
Article about potential unit surplus in Waterloo student housing.
http://m.therecord.com/news-story/566747...ood-market
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#28
(06-11-2015, 10:38 PM)rangersfan Wrote: Article about potential unit surplus in Waterloo student housing.
http://m.therecord.com/news-story/566747...ood-market

I think the Town and Gown committee is ignoring the fact that there is a shortage of units for professionals as well. Building in Northdale frees up units elsewhere and so far thre is no surplus of rental units for professionals either.

Also just today WLU announced an increase of 700 students in this year enrollment. If they keep steady at this number this is new demand for 2800 beds.
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#29
Copy-pasting my thoughts on that article from elsewhere:

Well, for starters, these towers were fulfilling pent up demand from the past few decades. Students shouldn't *have* to look at places at Erb/F-H. And the towers currently being built are to a much more flexible standard than the first few. Instead of purely 5-bedroom units, they're now going to be 1/2/3-bed units that are much more appropriate for the general "Young Professional" crowd.
Also, supply glut? Sounds like an overdue correction in rent prices to me! $550 for a bed with 4 other roommates is madness.

The correction in rent prices is already happening, actually. I was paying $550 in 2007 in an old shared house (5 people) with a massive gas bill (+hydro, +internet) on top of that.
Now $550 gets you a room in a relatively new build apartment with most utilities/internet included.
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#30
Regarding the boomer market... The outer suburban neighbourhood of the GTA where I grew up had a lot of residents in their 50s-80s, and a lot of them have moved recently. There's basically three periods in their lives where it seems to be common for them to move.

Empty nesters - now they need less space, don't need to worry about schools (admittedly not as significant a concern as in the US), and might want to live somewhere closer to work, or family, or that will be more convenient for when they get old, more walkable, less yard/house maintenance. The neighbours I've had in this situation moved into relatively walkable inner suburban neighbourhoods, although not into apartments, one couple into a large townhouse, the other into a SFH. They're in their peak earning years, and were fairly wealthy even adjusting for age, still relatively healthy, so they still want and can afford a generous amount of space relative to the size of their household.

Retirement - No longer constrained to live near work, neighbours at this stage of their lives often move to places that would have been too far while they were still working. One couple moved to the US to be close to their children, another moved to a small beach town near Lake Erie where the cost of living is much lower and there is a different sense of community, less hectic, a bit more walkable. I also have relatives who moved to a ski resort town in Quebec, so again, a different type of community from the big metro area.

Very old age - Usually if the couple is >70 years old and has been living in that house for a long time, they'll be pretty attached to it and to the community, and if they had a good reason to move, they would have probably done so before the age of 70. Perhaps they would be willing to move to an apartment within the same neighbourhood, but often the neighbourhood's housing stock is homogeneous so that's not an option. Most of the residents in that neighbourhood that are in the 70-85 range have been living there for 20-60 years. It's usually only when their health really declines, especially if their spouse passes away, that they'll move to a retirement home or nursing home. Often this only happens at 85+. It's not unusual, especially for the men, to continue driving past the age of 80 out of pride, even though their driving ability is rapidly declining.

I think older people are generally looking for a more peaceful environment, in terms of crime, noise, traffic, privacy, especially those from the generation between the "Greatest Generation" and Baby Boomers. With the younger boomers, typically empty nesters that are still working, there seems to be more demand for the "big city" rather than "small town" feel, especially if it gets them closer to work. Both groups tend to want more space that young professionals, and especially in the case of the younger boomers, can afford the additional space too.
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