10-18-2021, 03:22 PM
(10-17-2021, 11:54 PM)ac3r Wrote: The most recent population projection, for example was done in something like 2015 and predicted ROW would hit 630'000 by 2030 - yet it's 2021 and we're well past that. We are the fastest growing region in the entire country and while that will definitely not always be true, we'll still continue to grow as a major city/region.
The projection is 730k by 2031. I do think we'll likely exceed that, but we're not going to be nearly as far off as you suggest. I'll also point out that while we're now the fastest growing metro in the country, we weren't back in 2015. Assuming that we'd become the fastest growing would have been a bold prediction in 2015.
(10-17-2021, 11:54 PM)ac3r Wrote: That's kind of one reason why I repeatedly complain about how bad the Region of Waterloo (both as a community and a government) shot itself in the foot when it came to the LRT. Light rail is a great technology, but it's very, very, very limited. Feel free to @RemindMe_OfThis but by like...2045 at the earliest, we're going to regret not burying the downtown sections of our LRT, for example - just to get underground infrastructure built in place. I post about this on this forum and tend to get shot down by "oh it's too expensive" or "well there's a creek nearby" - like, sorry, what? Look at the big picture. Maybe we underestimated the growth of our region - after all, initial studies for this started in about 2004 - but we should have predicted the growth we'd see...even if it meant overestimating, which we obviously needed to do.
The population targets we're supposed to plan for have the force of provincial law under the Places To Grow Act. The region can't just decide we're going to plan for more people.
Even if we could, you're totally ignoring political reality. The choice wasn't underground ION vs surface ION, it was surface ION vs no ION. It doesn't matter how much that's the wrong choice under any logical system, we live in a democracy and in 2011 most people preferred the no ION option. Sure, we now have a massive amount of development which will strain the ION system in the future, but in 2011 there was no way to know that would happen. Even on the predecessors to this forum, where people love tall buildings, the thought of 30+ floors in KW was a fantasy. Now we're talking 40-50 (and maybe even more), when just 18 months ago the tallest building in Kitchener was 19 floors.
Around 2016 the region very suddenly flipped on net migration of the 25-34 demographic. It used to be a new outflow, and it became quite a significant net inflow. The exact reasons are hard to say, but it coincided with Shopify and Google really ramping up their hiring, while the wave of post-BlackBerry startups started to take off. Suddenly we were a destination, and that's also when we started moving up the fastest growing ranks. But there's no way anyone could have seen that coming with any certainty back in 2008. In 2008 there wasn't a lot going on here other than BlackBerry, a lot of hype but not (yet) a lot of action.
(10-17-2021, 11:54 PM)ac3r Wrote: The fact of the matter is ROW is going to grow, grow, grow and it's going to need infrastructure to keep up with that. Surface light rail is most definitely not going to suffice within 30ish years, so then we need to invest in something heavy and long term. [...] Running dual LRVs is not really a long term solution either.
Yeah, maybe it was too early for us to develop a subway system here (it was considered, researched and rejected), but maybe we should have saved our money in the meantime. Ottawa - who are a lot larger than us - started off with the Transitway, a BRT. They then progressed to a small LRT system about 15 years later. Roughly 15 years later after that, they opened up a proper "light metro" (yes the technology is "light rail" but the infrastructure is not) - that is, a rapid transit system that doesn't stop at fucking stoplights 3 seconds after departing Queen Station like ours does...lol...and it runs underground in the downtown core. It is what it is: rapid transit. That sort of long term strategizing is what you need when you're dealing with a city/region that is projected - not only mathematically/socially projected to grow by tens of thousands a year - to keep and keep growing. If you want to get cars off the road now - and in 25 years - you need to plan for it.
Look at Calgary vs Ottawa. Both built rapid transit systems at around 500k people, similar to when we started to build ION. Calgary chose surface LRT, Ottawa chose BRT. Only one of them has required replacement since. Calgary has an immensely successful LRT system, highest ridership in North America, yet they manage to do it with surface LRT. Meanwhile the Ottawa BRT has been an overcapacity disaster for 15+ years. Calgary has also been far more successful at directing development along the LRT, whereas people don't want to live next to the smelly noisy Ottawa BRT.
The Ottawa BRT also saddled Ottawa with incredibly high operating costs. The C-Train on the other hand expanded to 4 car trains, giving it the capacity to grow past 300k daily riders using surface infrastructure.
BRT would have been a huge disaster here. It wouldn't have directed development towards it like ION did, and it would have run in to capacity issues much sooner. Eventually we may need to tunnel the central section of ION, but that'll come after 3 car trains, 4 minute headways, and improved signal priority.