The COVID-19 pandemic

[danbrotherston]

The COVID testing centre is extremely backed up, and they are now turning people away at the entrance.

I've heard that the centre is short staffed as compared with other times from someone who waited 2.5 hours in line.

[plam]

You've got to look at all of the data coming out of the US, EU, Canada, Asia, the WHO, the CDC et al. If you Google search "omicron mild" and you get a plethora of reports from countries all around the world stating that it doesn't appear to be any worse than what we've seen before and in some cases is having even less of an impact on people likely due to accrued natural immunity or vaccination, which is what we wanted all along.

OK, so maybe the risk of hospitalization in today's population is 80% less than it was before, but we're still in for bad times if the number of cases grows more than 5 times, as it seems likely to.

The number of hospitalizations in Quebec is currently 445, which is slightly more than double the number from a month ago today, although admittedly lower than the peaks we've seen before (1800 in May 2020, 1516 in January 2021). But it's still quite early.

https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-n...ecember-22

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 479.0
• Halton Region Public Health 233.9
• Toronto Public Health 204.9
• Ottawa Public Health 197.7
• Hastings Prince Edward Public Health 185.2
• York Region Public Health 171.2
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 168.6
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 168.0
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 167.2
• Durham Region Health Department 165.9
• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 156.6

• Brant County Health Unit 116.6
• Eastern Ontario Health Unit 112.6
• Algoma Public Health 107.5
• Peterborough Public Health 98.0
• Porcupine Health Unit 92.3
• Huron Perth Public Health 85.1
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 70.4
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 50.6
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 47.0
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 37.3

• TOTAL ONTARIO 165.8

[tomh009]

Data from South Africa appears to indicate lower severity for Omicron. Data from the UK, however, appears to indicate similar severity. Both conclusions are still preliminary, and it's not clear to me that the differences are controlled for other factors, such as the vaccination level of patients checked. I do expect we'll learn more in the coming weeks.

That said, the encouraging news from South Africa shows rapidly dropping new case counts nationally, and even more so in Gauteng province, the first hotspot for Omicron.

And the Hong Kong study (not yet peer-reviewed), indicating that Omicron infects the throat rapidly but lungs are affected less than Delta, would also indicate good news, if confirmed by other studies or a peer review.

But for all of that, we really don't know yet.

[tomh009]

This is not true. Data remains preliminary on all fronts, but evidence from the UK found no evidence that Omicron is less virulent than other variants.

Most people seem to interpret the Imperial College study as showing evidence that Omicron is no less severe than Delta, but when I look at the research paper, it doesn't seem to say that at all. Instead, the data for hospitalization is too limited to draw conclusions from. When they say that they found no evidence that Omicron is less virulent, that doesn't mean that they found evidence that it is equally or more virulent, simply that they couldn't confirm the hypothesis that it was less virulent.

Perhaps someone better versed in statistics can interpret their results better, though? https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperia...ort-49.pdf

In any case, this data is now one week old. I would expect they could draw far more meaningful conclusions now.

That's correct. And they say the hospitalization data is very limited (it's roughly 100 cases for Omicron) for statistically significant analysis. I expect that they will update their paper as more data becomes available.

[plam]

Data from South Africa appears to indicate lower severity for Omicron. Data from the UK, however, appears to indicate similar severity. Both conclusions are still preliminary, and it's not clear to me that the differences are controlled for other factors, such as the vaccination level of patients checked. I do expect we'll learn more in the coming weeks.

The older UK data said there was no evidence that omicron was milder (which doesn't mean that it is or it isn't). Today's data from the UK does seem to support milder, but the increased transmissibility is still going to cause problems, because it's not milder enough.

But for all of that, we really don't know yet.

Yeah, still work in progress.

[danbrotherston]

So as of 8:30 COVID Testing booking is full.

I'm guessing it's safe to say our testing numbers will no longer be reflective of results.

It also means I am unable to visit my family doctor.

Man, some serious problems in our healthcare system.

[ijmorlan]

So as of 8:30 COVID Testing booking is full.

I'm guessing it's safe to say our testing numbers will no longer be reflective of results.

It also means I am unable to visit my family doctor.

Man, some serious problems in our healthcare system.

It’s interesting (to use a detached academic word) that the part of the solution that we didn’t necessarily know how to do or wouldn’t necessarily be able to do is going very well (vaccine development); but the part where we do know how to do it and should be able to do it (organizing testing, vaccine distribution, PPE distribution, etc.) is not going so well.

[danbrotherston]

So as of 8:30 COVID Testing booking is full.

I'm guessing it's safe to say our testing numbers will no longer be reflective of results.

It also means I am unable to visit my family doctor.

Man, some serious problems in our healthcare system.

It’s interesting (to use a detached academic word) that the part of the solution that we didn’t necessarily know how to do or wouldn’t necessarily be able to do is going very well (vaccine development); but the part where we do know how to do it and should be able to do it (organizing testing, vaccine distribution, PPE distribution, etc.) is not going so well.

Lol...science and technology are easy...systems and organization are hard.

Unfortunately that is the reality of our world.

[ac3r]

The logistics alone makes testing and PPE distribution quite a mammoth task when you're doing it on a global level. If you've worked in distribution in any regard that gets very apparent. But testing, for example, is compounded by the necessity for staff, supplies, microbiology lab capacity and so on. The human aspect makes things challenging. Just finding enough nurses and lab technicians to administer and process tests is hard because of our broken health care system that has been gutted for decades.

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 458.4
• Halton Region Public Health 257.6
• Toronto Public Health 237.7
• Ottawa Public Health 224.2
• Hastings Prince Edward Public Health 220.2
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 200.3
• Durham Region Health Department 199.2
• York Region Public Health 197.9
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 192.3
• Middlesex-London Health Unit 192.1

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 161.0

• Porcupine Health Unit 129.4
• Peterborough Public Health 123.7
• Brant County Health Unit 121.8
• Public Health Sudbury & Districts 121.6
• Algoma Public Health 119.7
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 93.7
• Huron Perth Public Health 91.6
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 76.4
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 65.5
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 46.0

• TOTAL ONTARIO 188.4

[ac3r]

This is not true. Data remains preliminary on all fronts, but evidence from the UK found no evidence that Omicron is less virulent than other variants.

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthc...021-12-20/

And just like that...

Based on cases in the U.K., a person with omicron is estimated to be 31% to 45% less likely to go to a hospital emergency department compared to someone with delta, “and 50 to 70% less likely to be admitted to hospital,” the agency said.

UK data suggests hospitalization is less likely with omicron: https://apnews.com/article/covid-omicron...296aa7e3c8

[plam]

This is not true. Data remains preliminary on all fronts, but evidence from the UK found no evidence that Omicron is less virulent than other variants.

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthc...021-12-20/

And just like that...

Based on cases in the U.K., a person with omicron is estimated to be 31% to 45% less likely to go to a hospital emergency department compared to someone with delta, “and 50 to 70% less likely to be admitted to hospital,” the agency said.

UK data suggests hospitalization is less likely with omicron: https://apnews.com/article/covid-omicron...296aa7e3c8

Again, not enough to matter, given increased transmissibility. I think many of us have been saying all along that even a 5-fold decrease doesn't matter if it's 10 times more transmissible.

But what seems to be happening is that those who already have immunity (whether through infection or through the vaccine) are less likely to be hospitalized. Those who haven't are equally likely as with Delta. Note that Delta is less likely to lead to hospitalization than Alpha.

[Bjays93]

Nearly 10k cases today. Merry Christmas everyone!

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 453.7
• Halton Region Public Health 346.6
• Toronto Public Health 292.1
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 264.5
• Hastings Prince Edward Public Health 260.0
• Ottawa Public Health 255.5
• Middlesex-London Health Unit 243.9
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 237.9
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 230.4
• York Region Public Health 229.6

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 194.7

• Chatham-Kent Public Health 158.0
• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 156.1
• Northwestern Health Unit 144.9
• Public Health Sudbury & Districts 135.7
• Algoma Public Health 125.8
• Huron Perth Public Health 118.8
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 118.6
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 88.6
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 79.2
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 63.4

• TOTAL ONTARIO 231.8

Infection rates are nearly identical for those vaccinated and those not vaccinated. On the positive side, vaccines will help keep you out of the hospital and/or getting more ill.