The COVID-19 pandemic

[Bjays93]

So ... Delta. It has definitely impacted our region, and most experts say it now accounts for a majority of our regional cases. And yet our regional case rates are slowly dropping as the vaccination numbers climb.

On the other hand, UK looks far worse. Their first-dose level is almost the same as for Canada, but the fully-vaccinated population is at 49% compared to Canada's 31% (although we are catching up). And yet, the new cases are strongly rising. Take a look at this chart:



Canada and US both have Delta though not as prevalent as the UK; Ireland also has a high percentage of Delta, but with lower vaccination levels to date than the UK (at 62% and 42% it's somewhat closer to Canadian numbers).

So, how are things getting out of control in the UK? What is the difference to our restrictions?

• Outdoor gatherings of up to 30 people
  
• Team sports are allowed
  
• Indoor gatherings of six unrelated people or two families
  
• Indoor (sit-down) service at bars, pubs and restaurants
  
• Schools, universities and colleges have in-person instruction
  
• Fitness facilities are open (though should stay in groups of no more than six)
  
• Theatres, movies and sports venues are open
  
• Religious services are open (though should stay in groups of no more than six)
  

However, masks still required in stores and on transit, and distancing is recommended.

It appears to me that their restrictions are now too loose to control Delta. But what is the right level? How much can we relax our restrictions without risking the UK scenario?

A key thing to look at is hospitalizations and ICU admissions. Keep in mind we dont try for net zero flu cases each year. Covid cases arent inherently bad, and if the vaccines are truly effective at preventing severe cases but the variant is still enough for people to get sick with mild symptoms that's ok. Its possible we may have to shift our viewpoint from any number of covid cases being bad. 20,000 cases doesn't have to be bad if it's all just mild cold like symptoms and vaccinated people get over it and dont have any lasting effects. 

I'm not saying this is the case but its definitely something to keep an eye on. Were never going to eradicate this disease and we will have to determine what an acceptable threshold for deaths is annually

[tomh009]

A key thing to look at is hospitalizations and ICU admissions. Keep in mind we dont try for net zero flu cases each year. Covid cases arent inherently bad, and if the vaccines are truly effective at preventing severe cases but the variant is still enough for people to get sick with mild symptoms that's ok. Its possible we may have to shift our viewpoint from any number of covid cases being bad. 20,000 cases doesn't have to be bad if it's all just mild cold like symptoms and vaccinated people get over it and dont have any lasting effects. 

I'm not saying this is the case but its definitely something to keep an eye on. Were never going to eradicate this disease and we will have to determine what an acceptable threshold for deaths is annually

NHS data says UK daily hospital admissions have gone up from 100/day at the beginning of May to 300/day now. So those, too, have increased strongly. NHS doesn't publish an ICU count but the number of patients on ventilators is up more than 50% over the same two-month period as the chart above (and up about 100% from mid-May).

So, NHS data, too, says that the UK situation is grim. Charts here if you would like to see details:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

[danbrotherston]

So ... Delta. It has definitely impacted our region, and most experts say it now accounts for a majority of our regional cases. And yet our regional case rates are slowly dropping as the vaccination numbers climb.

On the other hand, UK looks far worse. Their first-dose level is almost the same as for Canada, but the fully-vaccinated population is at 49% compared to Canada's 31% (although we are catching up). And yet, the new cases are strongly rising. Take a look at this chart:



Canada and US both have Delta though not as prevalent as the UK; Ireland also has a high percentage of Delta, but with lower vaccination levels to date than the UK (at 62% and 42% it's somewhat closer to Canadian numbers).

So, how are things getting out of control in the UK? What is the difference to our restrictions?

• Outdoor gatherings of up to 30 people
  
• Team sports are allowed
  
• Indoor gatherings of six unrelated people or two families
  
• Indoor (sit-down) service at bars, pubs and restaurants
  
• Schools, universities and colleges have in-person instruction
  
• Fitness facilities are open (though should stay in groups of no more than six)
  
• Theatres, movies and sports venues are open
  
• Religious services are open (though should stay in groups of no more than six)
  

However, masks still required in stores and on transit, and distancing is recommended.

It appears to me that their restrictions are now too loose to control Delta. But what is the right level? How much can we relax our restrictions without risking the UK scenario?

A key thing to look at is hospitalizations and ICU admissions. Keep in mind we dont try for net zero flu cases each year. Covid cases arent inherently bad, and if the vaccines are truly effective at preventing severe cases but the variant is still enough for people to get sick with mild symptoms that's ok. Its possible we may have to shift our viewpoint from any number of covid cases being bad. 20,000 cases doesn't have to be bad if it's all just mild cold like symptoms and vaccinated people get over it and dont have any lasting effects. 

I'm not saying this is the case but its definitely something to keep an eye on. Were never going to eradicate this disease and we will have to determine what an acceptable threshold for deaths is annually

COVID cases ARE inherently bad. There is no benefit to being sick whatsoever. At a minimum, you can spread it to others who may get more sick. Even typically, most people will feel sick, and this will negatively impact their lives (and yes, also their productivity, for those who only care about economics).

COVID cases which don't result in hospitalization have less harms than those which do, but that doesn't mean they aren't "inherently bad"

You are arguing that eliminating all cases may be too expensive, and that might be the case right now, but other places have achieved and it is beneficial.

Whether it is possible now to eradicate the disease, that's a matter of fact to be determined, the vaccine might be effective enough if widely available enough.

As for "acceptable deaths"...no, none are acceptable. There is no number of deaths greater than zero that we will be like "okay, that's few enough people, we're going to stop trying to improve our response to this."

[jeffster]

A key thing to look at is hospitalizations and ICU admissions. Keep in mind we dont try for net zero flu cases each year. Covid cases arent inherently bad, and if the vaccines are truly effective at preventing severe cases but the variant is still enough for people to get sick with mild symptoms that's ok. Its possible we may have to shift our viewpoint from any number of covid cases being bad. 20,000 cases doesn't have to be bad if it's all just mild cold like symptoms and vaccinated people get over it and dont have any lasting effects. 

I'm not saying this is the case but its definitely something to keep an eye on. Were never going to eradicate this disease and we will have to determine what an acceptable threshold for deaths is annually

NHS data says UK daily hospital admissions have gone up from 100/day at the beginning of May to 300/day now. So those, too, have increased strongly. NHS doesn't publish an ICU count but the number of patients on ventilators is up more than 50% over the same two-month period as the chart above (and up about 100% from mid-May).

So, NHS data, too, says that the UK situation is grim. Charts here if you would like to see details:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

Most who are in the hospital are those without a vaccination. I believe that 2-doses plus 4 weeks of mRNA vaccines will keep most out of the hospital. The delta variant itself hasn’t proved worse medically for patients, but rather it seems much more contagious.

The UK, and indeed the USA also, and Canada, will need to figure out a way to get more vaccines into arms. Really critical that we reach 80% of the entire population, which might only happen if 6m to 11y are able to get a shot (most like Pfizer). If approved for those under 12, immunization can be completed at school in a short time.

So everyone in my household now vaccinated, though one is still waiting for their second shot.

[jeffster]

COVID cases ARE inherently bad. There is no benefit to being sick whatsoever. At a minimum, you can spread it to others who may get more sick. Even typically, most people will feel sick, and this will negatively impact their lives (and yes, also their productivity, for those who only care about economics).

COVID cases which don't result in hospitalization have less harms than those which do, but that doesn't mean they aren't "inherently bad"

You are arguing that eliminating all cases may be too expensive, and that might be the case right now, but other places have achieved and it is beneficial.

Whether it is possible now to eradicate the disease, that's a matter of fact to be determined, the vaccine might be effective enough if widely available enough.

As for "acceptable deaths"...no, none are acceptable. There is no number of deaths greater than zero that we will be like "okay, that's few enough people, we're going to stop trying to improve our response to this."

I agree that there are no ‘acceptable deaths’ — but we are going to have to accept that Covid is going to be with us for a long time, probably forever, and there will be deaths from here on in. This is the same for flu, which kills close to 10,000 Canadians per year, pneumonia and other respiratory illnesses.

Best we can do is continue to find solutions to get as many people vaccinated — but as long as some aren’t reached and others refuse to get a vaccine, this is going to continue to happen long into the future. It is, what it is.

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Grey Bruce Health Unit 114.2
• Porcupine Health Unit 85.1
• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 58.7
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 30.1
• Lambton Public Health 16.8
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 15.4
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 14.9
• Niagara Region Public Health 13.5
• Toronto Public Health 11.3
• Peterborough Public Health 10.1

• TOTAL ONTARIO 12.2

Grey Bruce continues to struggle at reaching certain segments of the population, in this case, many in the Saugeen reserve area.

[tomh009]

You are arguing that eliminating all cases may be too expensive, and that might be the case right now, but other places have achieved and it is beneficial.

Australia, New Zealand and Taiwan did achieve near-zero cases for quite some time ... but we have now seen that it was not sustainable, even with very tightly controlled borders. Or are there other countries that I am missing?

[danbrotherston]

You are arguing that eliminating all cases may be too expensive, and that might be the case right now, but other places have achieved and it is beneficial.

Australia, New Zealand and Taiwan did achieve near-zero cases for quite some time ... but we have now seen that it was not sustainable, even with very tightly controlled borders. Or are there other countries that I am missing?

Those are the ones I'm referring too.

The point is that policies can achieve COVID zero. If the whole world had implemented the same policies, we wouldn't have COVID. Same if our vaccination rate was extremely high.

These are all choices.

But jeffster is right, chances are this will end up endemic, as a result of the choices we made.

[tomh009]

THURSDAY 2021-07-01 (delayed data due to Canada Day)

Waterloo Region reported 43 new cases for today (9.8% of the active cases) and zero more for yesterday for 58; 358 new cases for the week (-15 from yesterday, -48 from last week), averaging 10.6% of active cases. 425 active cases, -99 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

9,605 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 9,375 (previous week was 8,037). 63.45% of total regional population vaccinated (+0.18% from yesterday, +2.60% from 7 days ago), 27.34% fully vaccinated (+1.41% from yesterday, +9.56% from 7 days ago).

Ontario reported 284 new cases today with a seven-day average of 254 (-1). 269 recoveries and 19 deaths translated to a decrease of four active cases and a new total of 2,253. -685 active cases for the week and 88 deaths (13 per day). 26,929 tests with a positivity rate of 1.05%. The positivity rate is averaging 1.13% for the past seven days, compared to 1.34% for the preceding seven. 196 patients in ICU (-13 today, -53 for the week).

New case variants reported today (these are substantially delayed so they do not match the new case numbers):

• Alpha (B.1.1.7): 232
  
• Beta (B.1.351): 22
  
• Delta (B.1.617): 38
  
• Gamma (P.1): 51
  

267,687 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 241,001 (previous week was 196,970). 67.63% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.16% from yesterday, +1.21% from 7 days ago), 34.32% fully vaccinated (+1.66% from yesterday, +10.25% from 7 days ago).

• 56 cases in Waterloo: 9.1 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 4 cases in Chatham-Kent: 3.8 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 3.7 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Halton: 3.1 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Huron Perth: 3.1 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Lambton: 2.3 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Niagara: 2.0 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Middlesex-London: 1.7 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Hamilton: 1.7 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 1.5 per 100K
  
• 41 cases in Toronto: 1.4 per 100K
  
• 1 cases in Northwestern: 1.1 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Durham: 1.1 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Windsor-Essex: 1.0 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Peel: 1.0 per 100K
  

[tomh009]

FRIDAY 2021-07-02

Waterloo Region reported 35 new cases for today (8.2% of the active cases) and zero more for yesterday for 43; 356 new cases for the week (-2 from yesterday, -30 from last week), averaging 10.8% of active cases. 405 active cases, -104 in the last seven days. The seven-day average is down from mid-month's 66 to 51 now.

An average of 849 tests/day for the past seven days for a positivity rate of 5.99%, up slightly (but on a lower test count) from the previous week's 5.71%.

7,127 doses of vaccine administered (on Canada Day), with a seven-day average at 8,907 (previous week was 8,240). 63.58% of total regional population vaccinated (+0.13% from yesterday, +2.54% from 7 days ago), 28.38% fully vaccinated (+1.04% from yesterday, +9.14% from 7 days ago).

Ontario reported 200 new cases today with a seven-day average of 246 (-8). 269 recoveries and nine deaths translated to a decrease of 78 active cases and a new total of 2,175. -724 active cases for the week and 95 deaths (14 per day). 25,161 tests with a positivity rate of 0.79%. The positivity rate is averaging 1.11% for the past seven days, compared to 1.29% for the preceding seven. 190 patients in ICU (-6 today, -41 for the week).

New case variants reported today (these are substantially delayed so they do not match the new case numbers):

• Alpha (B.1.1.7): 157
  
• Beta (B.1.351): 28
  
• Delta (B.1.617): 48
  
• Gamma (P.1): 33
  

145,674 doses of vaccine administered (on Canada Day), with a seven-day average at 226,613 (previous week was 202,078). 67.71% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.08% from yesterday, +1.10% from 7 days ago), 35.23% fully vaccinated (+0.91% from yesterday, +9.68% from 7 days ago).

• 41 cases in Waterloo: 6.6 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 14 cases in Middlesex-London: 3.5 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Halton: 2.2 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Huron Perth: 2.0 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Lambton: 1.5 per 100K
  
• 21 cases in Peel: 1.5 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 1.5 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 1.5 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 1.5 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Hamilton: 1.4 per 100K
  
• 1 cases in Northwestern: 1.1 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Eastern Ontario: 1.0 per 100K
  

[Bjays93]

Sorry I should reiterate. Continual on and off restrictions and distancing and lockdowns are not viable long term.

If, and this is a big if, we get to the point where covid is presenting itself more like a normal flu or sickness to those who have been vaccinated, while we should still looks at ways to reduce cases, it has to be done in ways that do not involve distancing and closing of things etc. 

I have be pro lockdown all the way along, my comment and post history speaks for itself, but these sort of aggressive anti epidemic tactics have not been used in modern history any other time and should this subside to more normal levels such tactics should not continue to be used. That was merely my point.

[tomh009]

Sorry I should reiterate. Continual on and off restrictions and distancing and lockdowns are not viable long term.

If, and this is a big if, we get to the point where covid is presenting itself more like a normal flu or sickness to those who have been vaccinated, while we should still looks at ways to reduce cases, it has to be done in ways that do not involve distancing and closing of things etc. 

I have be pro lockdown all the way along, my comment and post history speaks for itself, but these sort of aggressive anti epidemic tactics have not been used in modern history any other time and should this subside to more normal levels such tactics should not continue to be used. That was merely my point.

There is a big difference between a full lockdown and masking up in the grocery store, though, as an example. The "new normal" will surely not be the same as the old normal.

And my point regarding the UK cases and Delta is pretty much exactly that: the latest virus variants are aggressive, and even with high levels of vaccination we may need to take some additional measures to control the spread.

Now, the UK is at "only" 50% fully vaccinated. If we can get to, say, 70% or 75% vaccination rate (of total population) it'll be a better situation. But UK's current infection rate is roughly equivalent to 4,000 cases/day in Ontario, about what we saw at the peak of the third wave a couple of months ago. I sure don't want to go back to those levels. (Even Israel is seeing double Canada's current infection rate, in spite of 60% fully vaccinated population.)

[ZEBuilder]

THURSDAY 2021-07-01
Ontario reported 284 new cases today with a seven-day average of 254 (-1). 269 recoveries and 19 deaths translated to a decrease of four active cases and a new total of 2,253.

FRIDAY 2021-07-02
Ontario reported 200 new cases today with a seven-day average of 246 (-8). 269 recoveries and nine deaths translated to a decrease of 78 active cases and a new total of 2,175.

For Thursday the province actually had a increase of 8 active cases, which is the first increase in active cases since April, you have 269 recoveries whereas the provincal report has 257 which is what creates the difference.

Then for Friday it's another difference in recoveries with the provincal report saying 281 recoveries instead of the 269 recoveries you have which makes the decrease change to 90 instead of 78.

As always thank you for providing these updates as they're extremely useful to get a picture of the current situation.

[tomh009]

The web site didn't show the Thursday number separately so I assigned half to each day. Not a big difference in the end.

I liked the old version of the Ontario web site better, it was much quicker to find the numbers. And they would show the past two days separately in a case like this. Ah well, I supposed we can't stop progress!

[ZEBuilder]

The web site didn't show the Thursday number separately so I assigned half to each day. Not a big difference in the end.

I liked the old version of the Ontario web site better, it was much quicker to find the numbers. And they would show the past two days separately in a case like this. Ah well, I supposed we can't stop progress!

That's rather interesting as it shows both days separately for me, which is the reason I said the data was incorrect, so would it be safe to assume that the provincal website is only different for some people, so something like a rolling update?