The COVID-19 pandemic

[panamaniac]

All provinces have “non-residents” (more than one might think). It would make no sense to deny them vaccines.

[tomh009]

After passing all non-tiny countries in terms of first vaccinations, Canada is now making rapid progress in the second vaccination race.

At the current pace, we will be at well over 50% of the total Canadian population fully vaccinated by the end of July. Not to mention 75% of the total population (over 85% of the eligible population) with the first shot.

   

[taylortbb]

At the current pace, we will be at well over 50% of the total Canadian population fully vaccinated by the end of July. Not to mention 75% of the total population (over 85% of the eligible population) with the first shot.

I'm not entirely convinced. We're seeing quite the slow down in first doses. I think we may hit effectively zero first doses before we get to 75% of the total population.

The current downward trend in first doses per day (7 day rolling average shown below) is looking pretty linear, at a decrease of 10k/doses/day/day. That would have us hitting 0 first doses/day around Canada day. I think in practice it won't hit quite zero, but we're only at 66% of the population with first doses and first doses are still slowing down rapidly, so getting to 75% will be tough.

If we implement domestic vaccination requirements, like concerts or restaurants checking vaccination status at the door, then it'll probably pick up. Most people aren't anti-vax, but a lot of the remaining people just don't care that much, and until they see some benefit in getting vaccinated won't bother.

   

[tomh009]

At the current pace, we will be at well over 50% of the total Canadian population fully vaccinated by the end of July. Not to mention 75% of the total population (over 85% of the eligible population) with the first shot.

I'm not entirely convinced. We're seeing quite the slow down in first doses. I think we may hit effectively zero first doses before we get to 75% of the total population.

The current downward trend in first doses per day (7 day rolling average shown below) is looking pretty linear, at a decrease of 10k/doses/day/day. That would have us hitting 0 first doses/day around Canada day. I think in practice it won't hit quite zero, but we're only at 66% of the population with first doses and first doses are still slowing down rapidly, so getting to 75% will be tough.

If we implement domestic vaccination requirements, like concerts or restaurants checking vaccination status at the door, then it'll probably pick up. Most people aren't anti-vax, but a lot of the remaining people just don't care that much, and until they see some benefit in getting vaccinated won't bother.

Yeah, let's soo how things go. More vaccine availability coming yet, easier access plus efforts to reach more people. I don't know that we are hitting the hesitancy barrier quite yet.

[jeffster]

Getting my second shot today, Moderna, as the Pharmasave on Ottawa and Strasburg. Anyone eligible should check out their website to book an appointment, took 2 days between signing up and getting shot.

[jeffster]

——snip—
I think the exact same thing could have happened just as easily anywhere, other cities don't have higher vaccination rates of those in the shelter system. We just got unlucky it was a delta outbreak.

I really don’t think this was “bad luck”. It was bad vaccine roll out management. But no one wants to admit that we screwed up. Too much pride here. Maybe because we’re so used to being on top of things, being great pioneers when it comes to things (Expressway, LRT, the investment that Kitchener made for its downtown, Cambridge for getting Toyota), that we can’t accept when we fail.

If we honestly can’t look at our situation, and understand where we could have done better, then that’s a pride issue. Now, I am not an expert in vaccine roll outs. But in my mind, my first thought would have been to have several locations, especially in hot zones, and have them in there until things start to wind down. Now, I had no idea Kitchener had two locations (not sure when they popped up), and 1 of them (and 2 in Waterloo) are being used for walk-ins coming up, but how helpful is this when they are all so far away from those that need to get vaccinated?

No need for pop-up temp clinics. Have some long-term clinics in areas that are hot (and have been since the beginning). It wouldn’t have been costly because you use city or region owned facilities. I am not sure why this wasn’t done (and before the vaccine roll out, I had assumed this is what they’d do, since recreational facilities were all closed).

[kps]

I'm not entirely convinced. We're seeing quite the slow down in first doses. I think we may hit effectively zero first doses before we get to 75% of the total population.

Comparing Israel's graph (which is very similar for the past month), we'd get to 70% in late July and top out around 72% in the fall.

   

[tomh009]

That's a very viable projection!

Let's check it again in two or three weeks as the new availability and booking situation stabilizes.

[jamincan]

Has anyone had any success using the new booking site from the region? I was in line to book an appointment initially, but the Captcha wasn't working (it would show a checkmark and then pop back to asking for a captcha). I then went back in line, got through after a few hours, and now it seems they're fully booked for the next month? Unfortunately the UI is terrible, and the only way to find out if a location is fully booked is to check every single day for availability for the next month. The fact that the web server seems to be connected with an old modem doesn't help things.

[jeffster]

Has anyone had any success using the new booking site from the region? I was in line to book an appointment initially, but the Captcha wasn't working (it would show a checkmark and then pop back to asking for a captcha). I then went back in line, got through after a few hours, and now it seems they're fully booked for the next month? Unfortunately the UI is terrible, and the only way to find out if a location is fully booked is to check every single day for availability for the next month. The fact that the web server seems to be connected with an old modem doesn't help things.

I tried and had issues with Captcha. I am guessing that my previously pre-registration is still there.

As for slowness, I guess it’s being hit hard. However, I did here from staff that I work with, they were able to book last night. Though all of them are late July.

That said, in other news, I got an email from PharmaSave on Ottawa and Strasburg, so as tonight, I will be fully vaccinated.

I think everyone needs to do the region a favour and avoid getting vaccinated through their system. Contact either your family doctor or sign up with a pharmacy (or 2 or 3). You’ll get your shot quicker, and you’ll leave more room for those that don’t have computer access. Hopefully the region informs the public on how they can book now.

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 per 100k

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 69.3
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 45.5
• Grey Bruce Health Unit 21.2
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 17.4
• Peel Public Health 17.3
• Toronto Public Health 14.3
• Niagara Region Public Health 14.2
• Lambton Public Health 13.7
• Public Health Sudbury & Districts 12.6
• York Region Public Health 12.2
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 11.9

• TOTAL ONTARIO 14.9

Waterloo Region trending in the right direction again. Hopefully this picks up. Probably within a few days, Porcupine (which I have excluded due to it’s small size and unique geography) will start entering the top 10. North Bay Parry Sound is trending in the wrong direction.

[ac3r]

There has been a mutation of the Delta Variant detected in both India and the United Kingdom, with Indian scientists dubbing it the Delta Plus variant: https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-why-...k-12339709

[clasher]

Has anyone had any success using the new booking site from the region? I was in line to book an appointment initially, but the Captcha wasn't working (it would show a checkmark and then pop back to asking for a captcha). I then went back in line, got through after a few hours, and now it seems they're fully booked for the next month? Unfortunately the UI is terrible, and the only way to find out if a location is fully booked is to check every single day for availability for the next month. The fact that the web server seems to be connected with an old modem doesn't help things.

I waited since 10:30ish this morning, the stupid countdown timer went from an hour down to 16 back 38 minutes and kept bouncing around for the last hour between 5 and 16 minutes. I got through a few minutes ago and found everything booked solid so I gave up. I'm about ready to go to the states to get it.

[urbanprotocol]

Has anyone had any success using the new booking site from the region? I was in line to book an appointment initially, but the Captcha wasn't working (it would show a checkmark and then pop back to asking for a captcha). I then went back in line, got through after a few hours, and now it seems they're fully booked for the next month? Unfortunately the UI is terrible, and the only way to find out if a location is fully booked is to check every single day for availability for the next month. The fact that the web server seems to be connected with an old modem doesn't help things.

After a couple hours of waiting this morning I got an appointment, but not until the 15th of July, and it's at the Cambridge location.

[neonjoe]

My wife called the Huron Crossing Pharmasave yesterday and got us appointments for our second doses the same day. It seems that these less well known pharmacies have a lot of supply. They weren't busy when we went in.