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The COVID-19 pandemic
(02-14-2021, 08:46 PM)tomh009 Wrote:
(02-14-2021, 08:41 PM)danbrotherston Wrote: I mean, I was just curious what the case numbers were when the first lockdown was lifted, and exactly how many days the lockdown lasted, as compared and contrasted with this lockdown.

Do you have the dates? I didn't record the lockdown start/stop dates. Sad

Me neither. I was going to say I remember the start but even that is only approximate.
Reply


(02-14-2021, 09:52 PM)danbrotherston Wrote:
(02-14-2021, 08:46 PM)tomh009 Wrote: Do you have the dates? I didn't record the lockdown start/stop dates. Sad

Me neither. I was going to say I remember the start but even that is only approximate.

Wikipedia to the rescue?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_p...in_Ontario

First state of emergency: 23 March 23 to 20 May
Second state of emergency: 14 January to 16 February (most of Ontario)

If we go with these dates, I have ...
  • 29 March 2020: 78 cases, peaking at 640 on 24 April, and 413 on 20 Mayb
  • 14 January 2021: 2,998 cases, peaking at 3,422 on 16 January, and currently down to 981
Based on these two, it looks like the second state of emergency was much more effective in bringing the number of new cases down -- it did have stronger restrictions. The first state of emergency was imposed early out of an abundance of caution but the restrictions were weak, and it actually finished with more daily cases than it started with.
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An excellent interview/summary of the WHO working group visit to Wuhan at the Science magazine:
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/02/...covid-19-s

And on risks of infection at schools, particularly without masks:
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/02/...s-covid-19
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Looks like the flu vaccine might lesson or eliminate symptoms in this one age group:

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/...020421.php

Further study I guess to see if those of other age groups receiving the flu shot are less likely to get seriously ill. There ia some science backing as to the why.
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10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-02-16 (posting this every two days).

RegionCases todayper 100K10-day averageper 100KWeekly trend
Peel
154
11.1
225
16.3
-25%
York
118
10.6
124
11.2
-3%
Toronto
320
10.9
327
11.2
-41%
Thunder Bay
9
6.0
16
10.7
+54%
Northwestern
15
17.1
8
9.2
+310%
Lambton
5
3.8
10
7.7
+32%
Windsor-Essex
5
1.3
28
7.3
+15%
Waterloo
31
5.0
44
7.1
-21%
Brant
13
9.6
10
7.0
-31%
Halton
44
8.0
37
6.8
-19%
Hamilton
37
6.4
38
6.5
-39%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph
12
4.4
17
6.4
-30%
Durham
37
5.7
41
6.3
+5%
Simcoe-Muskoka
24
4.4
32
5.8
-24%
Chatham-Kent
.0
6
5.7
-122%
Niagara
27
6.0
24
5.4
-11%
Middlesex-London
5
1.2
20
4.9
-62%
Ottawa
30
3.0
46
4.6
-5%
Huron Perth
1
1.0
4
4.2
+1%
Southwestern Ontario
6
3.0
7
3.5
-40%
Eastern Ontario
3
1.5
6
3.1
+110%
Ontario total
-24%
Reply
MONDAY 2021-02-15 (not reported by the province/region yesterday due to Family Day holiday)

Waterloo Region reported 35 new cases today (9.0% of the active cases) and one more for yesterday for a total of 38; 309 new cases for the week (-2), averaging 11.0% of active cases. 364 active cases, -73 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 964 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,051 (-43). 1,273 recoveries and 13 deaths translated to a drop of 322 active cases and a new total of 11,725. -2,606 active cases for the week and 168 deaths (24 per day). 30,355 tests for a positivity rate of 3.18%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.27% for the past seven days, compared to 3.09% for the preceding seven.

293 patients in ICU (+1 today, -42 for the week).
  • 201 cases in Peel: 14.5 per 100K
  • 20 cases in Thunder Bay: 13.3 per 100K
  • 43 cases in Windsor-Essex: 11.1 per 100K
  • 66 cases in Durham: 10.2 per 100K
  • 12 cases in Brant: 8.8 per 100K
  • 251 cases in Toronto: 8.6 per 100K
  • 93 cases in York: 8.4 per 100K
  • 10 cases in Lambton: 7.6 per 100K
  • 66 cases in Ottawa: 6.6 per 100K
  • 13 cases in Eastern Ontario: 6.4 per 100K
  • 34 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 6.3 per 100K
  • 6 cases in Huron Perth: 6.1 per 100K
  • 37 cases in Waterloo: 6.0 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  • 30 cases in Halton: 5.5 per 100K
  • 23 cases in Niagara: 5.1 per 100K
  • 15 cases in Hamilton: 2.6 per 100K
  • 8 cases in Middlesex-London: 2.0 per 100K
  • 4 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 2.0 per 100K
Reply
TUESDAY 2021-02-16

Waterloo Region reported 25 new cases today (6.9% of the active cases) and none more for yesterday for a total of 35; 296 new cases for the week (-13), averaging 10.7% of active cases. 354 active cases, -53 in the last seven days.

An average of 1,853 tests per day for the past week for a positivity rate of 2.28%.

Ontario reported 904 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,035 (-16). 1,012 recoveries and 13 deaths translated to a drop of 121 active cases and a new total of 11,604. -2,344 active cases for the week and 164 deaths (23 per day). 27,005 tests for a positivity rate of 3.35%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.27% for the past seven days, compared to 2.89% for the preceding seven.

292 patients in ICU (-1 today, -26 for the week).
  • 15 cases in Northwestern: 17.1 per 100K
  • 154 cases in Peel: 11.1 per 100K
  • 320 cases in Toronto: 10.9 per 100K
  • 118 cases in York: 10.6 per 100K
  • 13 cases in Brant: 9.6 per 100K
  • 44 cases in Halton: 8.0 per 100K
  • 37 cases in Hamilton: 6.4 per 100K
  • 27 cases in Niagara: 6.0 per 100K
  • 9 cases in Thunder Bay: 6.0 per 100K
  • 37 cases in Durham: 5.7 per 100K
  • 31 cases in Waterloo: 5.0 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  • 24 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 4.4 per 100K
  • 12 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 4.4 per 100K
  • 5 cases in Lambton: 3.8 per 100K
  • 30 cases in Ottawa: 3.0 per 100K
  • 6 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 3.0 per 100K
Reply


(02-16-2021, 01:14 AM)jeffster Wrote: Looks like the flu vaccine might lesson or eliminate symptoms in this one age group:

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/...020421.php

Further study I guess to see if those of other age groups receiving the flu shot are less likely to get seriously ill. There ia some science backing as to the why.

Yeah, NZ is expecting a lot of uptake on the flu vaccine this year as well, although it'll be hard to predict how to formulate it since the flu is essentially not a thing this whole year.

The result is plausible though not super strongly supported by evidence. It's especially useful in this age group where COVID vaccines aren't approved yet. People should get their flu shots!
Reply
WEDNESDAY 2021-02-17

Waterloo Region reported 35 new cases today (9.9% of the active cases) and none more for yesterday for a total of 25; 296 new cases for the week (+0), averaging 10.9% of active cases. 322 active cases, -64 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

Ontario reported 847 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,004 (-31). 1,456 recoveries and 10 deaths translated to a drop of 619 active cases and a new total of 10,985. -2,275 active cases for the week and 133 deaths (19 per day). 33,977 tests for a positivity rate of 2.49%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.34% for the past seven days, compared to 2.83% for the preceding seven.

298 patients in ICU (+8 today, -15 for the week). Total hospital population of 719 (-229 for the week).
  • 170 cases in Peel: 12.3 per 100K
  • 131 cases in York: 11.8 per 100K
  • 44 cases in Windsor-Essex: 11.3 per 100K
  • 257 cases in Toronto: 8.8 per 100K
  • 11 cases in Brant: 8.1 per 100K
  • 10 cases in Thunder Bay: 6.7 per 100K
  • 53 cases in Ottawa: 5.3 per 100K
  • 29 cases in Hamilton: 5.0 per 100K
  • 26 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 4.8 per 100K
  • 30 cases in Durham: 4.6 per 100K
  • 11 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 4.0 per 100K
  • 4 cases in Lambton: 3.1 per 100K
  • 18 cases in Waterloo: 2.9 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  • 3 cases in Chatham-Kent: 2.8 per 100K
  • 10 cases in Niagara: 2.2 per 100K
  • 12 cases in Halton: 2.2 per 100K

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population
Reply
Canada has recorded a 64% drop in cases since January, which is really good even though there are multiple variants going around now: https://twitter.com/globeandmail/status/...7414670342

It is also predicted that 14.5 million Canadians should be vaccinated by June: https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronaviru...-1.5314048

I'll be curious to see how the vaccinations work. I'm Indigenous so I'm able to get vaccinated soon as Indigenous adults are included in the next phase which should be soon. How I go about doing that will remain to be seen as they were planning on using that software for things, but I don't know if that means I'll be stuck refreshing a webpage for hours on end to book an appointment.
Reply
(02-17-2021, 03:26 PM)tomh009 Wrote: WEDNESDAY 2021-02-17

Waterloo Region reported 35 new cases today (9.9% of the active cases) and none more for yesterday for a total of 25; 296 new cases for the week (+0), averaging 10.9% of active cases. 322 active cases, -64 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

Ontario reported 847 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,004 (-31). 1,456 recoveries and 10 deaths translated to a drop of 619 active cases and a new total of 10,985. -2,275 active cases for the week and 133 deaths (19 per day). 33,977 tests for a positivity rate of 2.49%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.34% for the past seven days, compared to 2.83% for the preceding seven.

298 patients in ICU (+8 today, -15 for the week). Total hospital population of 719 (-229 for the week).
  • 170 cases in Peel: 12.3 per 100K
  • 131 cases in York: 11.8 per 100K
  • 44 cases in Windsor-Essex: 11.3 per 100K
  • 257 cases in Toronto: 8.8 per 100K
  • 11 cases in Brant: 8.1 per 100K
  • 10 cases in Thunder Bay: 6.7 per 100K
  • 53 cases in Ottawa: 5.3 per 100K
  • 29 cases in Hamilton: 5.0 per 100K
  • 26 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 4.8 per 100K
  • 30 cases in Durham: 4.6 per 100K
  • 11 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 4.0 per 100K
  • 4 cases in Lambton: 3.1 per 100K
  • 18 cases in Waterloo: 2.9 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  • 3 cases in Chatham-Kent: 2.8 per 100K
  • 10 cases in Niagara: 2.2 per 100K
  • 12 cases in Halton: 2.2 per 100K

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population

Should Niagara be labeled in Purple since they are still in lockdown?

Coke
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tomh009, it would be useful to incorporate any numbers that are out there on the VOCs particularly B117. But I guess those numbers aren't being released daily?
Reply
(02-18-2021, 02:16 PM)plam Wrote: tomh009, it would be useful to incorporate any numbers that are out there on the VOCs particularly B117. But I guess those numbers aren't being released daily?

Cumulative cases, as of today:
  • Lineage B.1.1.7 (UK variant): 348
  • Lineage B.1.351 (South African variant): 10
  • Lineage P.1 (Brazilian variant): 1
The UK variant accounts for about 1.5% of the cases for the past week, not very high.

I don't know how reliable these are, though -- is this being done for all the daily tests?
Reply


(02-18-2021, 12:07 PM)Coke6pk Wrote: Should Niagara be labeled in Purple since they are still in lockdown?

Thanks for the reminder, Coke, I went through and updated all of them.
Reply
10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-02-18 (posting this every two days).

RegionCases todayper 100K10-day averageper 100KWeekly trend
Peel
142
10.3
204
14.8
-32%
York
122
11.0
124
11.2
-1%
Northwestern
25
28.5
10
11.0
+268%
Thunder Bay
21
14.0
16
10.6
+66%
Toronto
376
12.8
297
10.1
-4%
Windsor-Essex
41
10.5
31
7.9
+57%
Lambton
15
11.5
10
7.7
+30%
Waterloo
43
7.0
41
6.6
-31%
Halton
27
4.9
32
5.8
-23%
Hamilton
49
8.5
33
5.8
+35%
Brant
4
2.9
8
5.7
+29%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph
10
3.7
15
5.7
-43%
Simcoe-Muskoka
45
8.3
30
5.6
+24%
Durham
19
2.9
34
5.3
+16%
Ottawa
37
3.7
44
4.5
+9%
Niagara
6
1.3
20
4.4
-30%
Middlesex-London
20
4.9
16
4.0
-46%
Huron Perth
1
1.0
4
3.6
-49%
Chatham-Kent
.0
4
3.5
-128%
Eastern Ontario
8
3.9
7
3.4
+19%
Southwestern Ontario
4
2.0
6
2.8
-40%
Ontario total
-9%
Reply
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