The COVID-19 pandemic

[danbrotherston]

Pre-COVID when there were illegal marijuana dispensaries operating, by-law would use concrete highway barriers to block entrances to prevent re-occurrence.

Now when places are openly displaying non-compliance, and not just weed, but something lethal, we do nothing?  I don't get it.

Coke

The problem is that we decided one doesn't actually have to prove to anyone they have a medical problem to refuse wearing a mask, it's just your word against theirs. I'm perfectly healthy but if I wanted to just decide one day I don't want to wear any masks, I can just refuse to do so and call anyone who questions that discriminatory. It's ridiculous. I hope in the next pandemic where masks are demonstrated to be necessary we have the sense to not allow this. Make people who are truly exempt have some sort of documentation, it would be no harder to get than a doctors note for work or school.

I really don't think this is an issue, people who are not wearing a mask for political reasons aren't quite about it. They might claim a medical exemption, but it's in the midsts of screaming in your face about rights.

As for the issue being discussed here, it really isn't the same, a place openly advocating against masks or breaking the stay at home order is fundamentally different, they are openly and intentionally breaking the laws, and the fact we are treating them with kid gloves rather than taking this seriously is only the latest in enormous disappointments this pandemic.

[danbrotherston]

Some random COVID tidbits:

• Manitoba has placed an order for 2M vaccine doses from Providence Therapeutics of Calgary. Providence has just started phase 2 trials (the much-bigger phase 3 trial is still in the future) so approval is still well in the future. The company has also purchased land for a production site but apparently no construction has started yet. This will surely arrive after the Novavax production starts in Montreal.
  https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/...-1.5910312
  
  
• Reports from Israel (where the entire population is being monitored) show that the BioNTech-Pfizer vaccine has reduced infections by 93% including asymptomatic cases (the phase 3 trial only check for symptomatic cases)
  https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20210212_08/
  
  
• Some Russian scientists are not so much impressed with the phase 3 study of the Sputnik-V vaccine or the details that were published
  http://osdm.org/english/2021/02/07/comme...k-v-trial/
  
  
• A Finnish company, DSA, is about to go to production with a COVID breathalyzer device that can accurately detect an infection within two minutes
  https://dsa.fi/dsa-breathpass
  
  
• And Miami Heat is using dogs to detect COVID positive patrons with 92% accuracy
  https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertglatt...-new-mvps/
  

These detection options are great, and data showed that tracking and tracing was a huge benefit.  Of course, that's little help here, where we are not even using the tests that we do have...

I am still confused by these orders for vaccines which won't be ready until after we plan to be finished vaccinating everyone, it basically amounts to a donation to the COVAX program, which is great, but I feel like it's a little misleading.

As for a production facility, this has nothing to do with COVID-19 vaccines, it won't be ready till after the whole world is vaccinated, it's a good facility to build, but if we were actually prioritizing this, we'd be repurposing existing buildings under emergency measures.

[tomh009]

I am still confused by these orders for vaccines which won't be ready until after we plan to be finished vaccinating everyone, it basically amounts to a donation to the COVAX program, which is great, but I feel like it's a little misleading.

As for a production facility, this has nothing to do with COVID-19 vaccines, it won't be ready till after the whole world is vaccinated, it's a good facility to build, but if we were actually prioritizing this, we'd be repurposing existing buildings under emergency measures.

I personally believe that COVID-19 will not disappear this year, in spite of the vaccinations. There will be further variants -- we already have three major ones -- and at some point there will be a need for booster vaccinations to deal with those. Maybe not with the same level of urgency as now, but the need will nevertheless be there.

[ac3r]

The Lancet came and said the Russian vaccine appears to be highly effective: https://www.ibtimes.com/russias-sputnik-...dy-3135809

In Ontario, medical experts are saying we should expect to see a third wave of spread by April: https://outline.com/E9KuGx

[tomh009]

The Lancet came and said the Russian vaccine appears to be highly effective: https://www.ibtimes.com/russias-sputnik-...dy-3135809

Well, The Lancet didn't actually say that but they did review the Russian paper and approve it for publication. And the data in the paper looks pretty good. But not everyone agrees ...

[*]Some Russian scientists are not so much impressed with the phase 3 study of the Sputnik-V vaccine or the details that were published
http://osdm.org/english/2021/02/07/comme...k-v-trial/

[tomh009]

FRIDAY 2021-02-12

Waterloo Region reported 60 new cases today (15.0% of the active cases) and no additional ones for yesterday for a total of 65; 361 new cases for the week (+15), averaging 12.0% of active cases. 417 active cases, -41 in the last seven days.

An average of 1,776 tests per day for the past week, for a positivity rate of 2.90% for the week.

Ontario reported 1,076 new cases today, with Toronto possibly still missing some data, with a seven-day average of 1,180 (-66). 1,415 recoveries and 18 deaths translated to a drop of 357 active cases and a new total of 12,496. -3,226 active cases for the week and 194 deaths (28 per day). 62,012 tests for a positivity rate of 1.74%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.58% for the past seven days, compared to 3.38% for the preceding seven.

295 patients in ICU (-4 today, -30 for the week). Total hospital population 763 (-280 for the week).

• 210 cases in Peel: 15.2 per 100K
  
• 22 cases in Thunder Bay: 14.7 per 100K
  
• 361 cases in Toronto: 12.3 per 100K
  
• 122 cases in York: 11.0 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Brant: 9.6 per 100K
  
• 59 cases in Waterloo: 9.5 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 11 cases in Lambton: 8.4 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 6.3 per 100K
  
• 31 cases in Halton: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 5.5 per 100K
  
• 52 cases in Ottawa: 5.2 per 100K
  
• 30 cases in Hamilton: 5.2 per 100K
  
• 31 cases in Durham: 4.8 per 100K
  
• 18 cases in Windsor-Essex: 4.6 per 100K
  
• 24 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Niagara: 3.8 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Eastern Ontario: 3.0 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 2.9 per 100K
  

[ac3r]

With today's announcement of changes, the stay-at-home order will be lifted and the region will be returning to a red zone classification: https://www.kitchenertoday.com/coronavir...rk-3423898

[jeffster]

I am still confused by these orders for vaccines which won't be ready until after we plan to be finished vaccinating everyone, it basically amounts to a donation to the COVAX program, which is great, but I feel like it's a little misleading.

As for a production facility, this has nothing to do with COVID-19 vaccines, it won't be ready till after the whole world is vaccinated, it's a good facility to build, but if we were actually prioritizing this, we'd be repurposing existing buildings under emergency measures.

I personally believe that COVID-19 will not disappear this year, in spite of the vaccinations. There will be further variants -- we already have three major ones -- and at some point there will be a need for booster vaccinations to deal with those. Maybe not with the same level of urgency as now, but the need will nevertheless be there.

This is the reason. We need this facility so we can rely on ourselves for yearly vaccinations against COVID-19. I suppose the upside (edit) to this, perhaps we finally will find the cure for the common cold.

But 100% we need this facility, even if it does nothing for us for this round of the disease.

[tomh009]

SATURDAY 2021-02-13

Waterloo Region reported 39 new cases today (9.4% of the active cases) and no additional ones for yesterday for a total of 56; 320 new cases for the week (-41), averaging 10.8% of active cases. 396 active cases, -88 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 1,300 new cases today; it's unclear whether the Toronto data has now been caught up. A seven-day average of 1,167 (-13). 1,434 recoveries and 19 deaths translated to a drop of 153 active cases and a new total of 12,343. -2,896 active cases for the week and 168 deaths (24 per day) -- this is now down by about half from January. 58,760 tests for a positivity rate of 2.21%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.58% for the past seven days, compared to 3.26% for the preceding seven.

287 patients in ICU (-8 today, -38 for the week). Total hospital population 786 (-235 for the week).

• 24 cases in Lambton: 18.3 per 100K
  
• 253 cases in Peel: 18.3 per 100K
  
• 23 cases in Thunder Bay: 15.3 per 100K
  
• 433 cases in Toronto: 14.8 per 100K
  
• 32 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 11.8 per 100K
  
• 45 cases in Windsor-Essex: 11.6 per 100K
  
• 116 cases in York: 10.5 per 100K
  
• 61 cases in Waterloo: 9.9 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 48 cases in Hamilton: 8.3 per 100K
  
• 33 cases in Niagara: 7.4 per 100K
  
• 47 cases in Durham: 7.3 per 100K
  
• 38 cases in Halton: 6.9 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Huron Perth: 6.1 per 100K
  
• 31 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Brant: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Eastern Ontario: 4.9 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Middlesex-London: 4.2 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 3.4 per 100K
  
• 29 cases in Ottawa: 2.9 per 100K
  

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-02-14 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Peel	209	15.1	250	18.1	-24%
Toronto	122	4.2	369	12.6	-52%
York	171	15.4	129	11.6	+9%
Thunder Bay	35	23.3	15	9.9	+160%
Halton	35	6.4	44	8.0	-59%
Waterloo	27	4.4	49	7.9	-20%
Northwestern	41	46.8	7	7.8	+2013%
Windsor-Essex	46	11.8	30	7.7	+28%
Chatham-Kent	1	.9	8	7.5	-82%
Hamilton	40	6.9	43	7.4	-30%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	15	5.5	19	6.9	+32%
Lambton	14	10.7	9	6.9	+218%
Brant	2	1.5	9	6.7	-66%
Niagara	19	4.2	29	6.5	-54%
Simcoe-Muskoka	31	5.7	34	6.2	-29%
Durham	35	5.4	40	6.1	-27%
Middlesex-London	33	8.2	24	5.9	-24%
Huron Perth	5	5.1	5	5.0	-23%
Ottawa	49	4.9	47	4.7	-14%
Southwestern Ontario	10	5.0	9	4.6	-44%
Eastern Ontario	7	3.5	7	3.5	+2%
Ontario total					-27%

The Toronto numbers are still fluctuating but I am now no longer expecting a major correction.

[tomh009]

SUNDAY 2021-02-14

Waterloo Region reported 37 new cases today (9.4% of the active cases) and one less for yesterday for a total of 37; 311 new cases for the week (-9), averaging 10.8% of active cases. 387 active cases, -75 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 981 new cases today with the Toronto data still fluctuation somewhat. A seven-day average of 1,094 (-73). 1,235 recoveries and 42 deaths translated to a drop of 296 active cases and a new total of 12,047. -2,752 active cases for the week and 188 deaths (27 per day). 48,701 tests for a positivity rate of 2.01%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.45% for the past seven days, compared to 3.19% for the preceding seven.

292 patients in ICU (+5 today, -43 for the week).

• 41 cases in Northwestern: 46.8 per 100K
  
• 35 cases in Thunder Bay: 23.3 per 100K
  
• 171 cases in York: 15.4 per 100K
  
• 209 cases in Peel: 15.1 per 100K
  
• 46 cases in Windsor-Essex: 11.8 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Lambton: 10.7 per 100K
  
• 33 cases in Middlesex-London: 8.2 per 100K
  
• 40 cases in Hamilton: 6.9 per 100K
  
• 35 cases in Halton: 6.4 per 100K
  
• 31 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 5.5 per 100K
  
• 35 cases in Durham: 5.4 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Huron Perth: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 5.0 per 100K
  
• 49 cases in Ottawa: 4.9 per 100K
  
• 27 cases in Waterloo: 4.4 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 19 cases in Niagara: 4.2 per 100K
  
• 122 cases in Toronto: 4.2 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Eastern Ontario: 3.5 per 100K
  

[danbrotherston]

SUNDAY 2021-02-14

Waterloo Region reported 37 new cases today (9.4% of the active cases) and one less for yesterday for a total of 37; 311 new cases for the week (-9), averaging 10.8% of active cases. 387 active cases, -75 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 981 new cases today with the Toronto data still fluctuation somewhat. A seven-day average of 1,094 (-73). 1,235 recoveries and 42 deaths translated to a drop of 296 active cases and a new total of 12,047. -2,752 active cases for the week and 188 deaths (27 per day). 48,701 tests for a positivity rate of 2.01%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.45% for the past seven days, compared to 3.19% for the preceding seven.

292 patients in ICU (+5 today, -43 for the week).

• 41 cases in Northwestern: 46.8 per 100K
  
• 35 cases in Thunder Bay: 23.3 per 100K
  
• 171 cases in York: 15.4 per 100K
  
• 209 cases in Peel: 15.1 per 100K
  
• 46 cases in Windsor-Essex: 11.8 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Lambton: 10.7 per 100K
  
• 33 cases in Middlesex-London: 8.2 per 100K
  
• 40 cases in Hamilton: 6.9 per 100K
  
• 35 cases in Halton: 6.4 per 100K
  
• 31 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 5.5 per 100K
  
• 35 cases in Durham: 5.4 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Huron Perth: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 5.0 per 100K
  
• 49 cases in Ottawa: 4.9 per 100K
  
• 27 cases in Waterloo: 4.4 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 19 cases in Niagara: 4.2 per 100K
  
• 122 cases in Toronto: 4.2 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Eastern Ontario: 3.5 per 100K
  

Do you have records and numbers for the cases and duration of the previous lockdown?

[tomh009]

Do you have records and numbers for the cases and duration of the previous lockdown?

I have recorded all the data since 2020-04-01 ... if you want a spreadsheet, send me a PM with what you need.

[danbrotherston]

Do you have records and numbers for the cases and duration of the previous lockdown?

I have recorded all the data since 2020-04-01 ... if you want a spreadsheet, send me a PM with what you need.

I mean, I was just curious what the case numbers were when the first lockdown was lifted, and exactly how many days the lockdown lasted, as compared and contrasted with this lockdown.

[tomh009]

I have recorded all the data since 2020-04-01 ... if you want a spreadsheet, send me a PM with what you need.

I mean, I was just curious what the case numbers were when the first lockdown was lifted, and exactly how many days the lockdown lasted, as compared and contrasted with this lockdown.

Do you have the dates? I didn't record the lockdown start/stop dates.