The COVID-19 pandemic

[danbrotherston]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-01-05 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Windsor-Essex	142	36.5	184	47.4	+18%
Peel	614	44.4	491	35.5	+25%
Lambton	62	47.3	45	34.7	+51%
York	213	19.2	294	26.5	+28%
Toronto	778	26.6	745	25.4	+18%
Niagara	101	22.6	101	22.6	+22%
Middlesex-London	151	37.3	90	22.2	+30%
Southwestern Ontario	35	17.5	44	22.2	+15%
Hamilton	151	26.1	124	21.4	+29%
Durham	172	26.6	127	19.6	+42%
Huron Perth	21	21.4	17	17.3	+41%
Halton	128	23.3	95	17.3	+25%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	46	16.9	47	17.1	+22%
Chatham-Kent	39	36.8	18	17.0	+57%
Eastern Ontario	45	22.2	34	17.0	+58%
Brant	29	21.3	21	15.7	+42%
Waterloo	129	20.9	91	14.7	+44%
Simcoe-Muskoka	72	13.3	57	10.6	+21%
Ottawa	126	12.7	95	9.5	+45%
Leeds, Grenville & Lanark	4	2.4	6	3.4	+13%
Thunder Bay	5	3.3	5	3.1	+9%

Good lord that's a grim picture.

Meanwhile our vaccine task force continues to blame the federal government for their failure to distribute the vaccine we have.

[panamaniac]

By "their" failure are you referring to the provincial or the national government?

[danbrotherston]

By "their" failure are you referring to the provincial or the national government?

"their" meaning the vaccine task force at the provincial level.

According to reporting, Hillier repeatedly said they weren't getting enough vaccines from the federal government, but they've only distributed 1/3rd of the vaccines they have received.

I've said it other places, but no wonder conservatives hate government so much, they have the most incompetent most corrupt governments, so of course they would have no faith in government.

[tomh009]

TUESDAY 2021-01-05

Waterloo Region reported 120 new cases today (17.8% of the active cases); 766 new cases for the week (+61), averaging 18.8% of active cases. 716 active cases, +193 in the last seven days.

An average of 1,736 tests reported for the past week. I am still suspicious of the numbers as we averaged 2,469/day on 25-28 December, then down to 709 for 29-31 December and then back up to 2,506 for 01-04 January. Doesn't make sense. Anyway, using their numbers, the positivity rate averaged 6.30% for those seven days.

Ontario reported 3,128 new cases today with a seven-day average of3,065 (+83). 2,015 recoveries and 51 deaths translated to an increase of 1,062 active cases and a new total of 25,840. +5,949 active cases for the week and 275 deaths (39 per day). 35,152 tests (this is the data for Sunday testing) for an ugly positivity rate of 8.90%. The positivity rate is averaging 6.41% for the past seven days, compared to 4.72% for the preceding seven.

352 patients in ICU (+19), and a total of 352 hospital beds in use (+48 for the week).

• 62 cases in Lambton: 47.3 per 100K
  
• 614 cases in Peel: 44.4 per 100K
  
• 151 cases in Middlesex-London: 37.3 per 100K
  
• 39 cases in Chatham-Kent: 36.8 per 100K
  
• 142 cases in Windsor-Essex: 36.5 per 100K
  
• 172 cases in Durham: 26.6 per 100K
  
• 778 cases in Toronto: 26.6 per 100K
  
• 151 cases in Hamilton: 26.1 per 100K
  
• 128 cases in Halton: 23.3 per 100K
  
• 101 cases in Niagara: 22.6 per 100K
  
• 45 cases in Eastern Ontario: 22.2 per 100K
  
• 21 cases in Huron Perth: 21.4 per 100K
  
• 29 cases in Brant: 21.3 per 100K
  
• 129 cases in Waterloo: 20.9 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 213 cases in York: 19.2 per 100K
  
• 35 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 17.5 per 100K
  
• 46 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 16.9 per 100K
  
• 72 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 13.3 per 100K
  
• 126 cases in Ottawa: 12.7 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Thunder Bay: 3.3 per 100K
  

Today's bonus chart shows the ICU bed usage totals, and as a percentage of all active cases in Ontario.

   

[tomh009]

WEDNESDAY 2021-01-06

Waterloo Region reported 132 new cases today (17.1% of the active cases); 829 new cases for the week (+63), averaging 18.5% of active cases. 811 active cases, +254 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

Ontario reported 3,266 new cases today with a seven-day average of 3,114 (+49). 3,005 recoveries and 37 deaths translated to an increase of 224 active cases and a new total of 26,064. +5,506 active cases for the week and 293 deaths (42 per day). 51,045 tests for a positivity rate of 6.40%. The positivity rate is averaging 6.26% for the past seven days, compared to 5.18% for the preceding seven.

361 patients in ICU (+9), and a total of 1463 hospital beds in use (+286 for the week).

• 208 cases in Windsor-Essex: 53.5 per 100K
  
• 192 cases in Niagara: 42.9 per 100K
  
• 523 cases in Peel: 37.8 per 100K
  
• 206 cases in Waterloo: 33.3 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 349 cases in York: 31.4 per 100K
  
• 127 cases in Middlesex-London: 31.4 per 100K
  
• 805 cases in Toronto: 27.5 per 100K
  
• 153 cases in Hamilton: 26.4 per 100K
  
• 64 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 23.5 per 100K
  
• 47 cases in Eastern Ontario: 23.2 per 100K
  
• 45 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 22.5 per 100K
  
• 145 cases in Durham: 22.5 per 100K
  
• 24 cases in Lambton: 18.3 per 100K
  
• 100 cases in Halton: 18.2 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Chatham-Kent: 13.2 per 100K
  
• 57 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 10.6 per 100K
  
• 94 cases in Ottawa: 9.4 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 6.9 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Thunder Bay: 6.7 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Huron Perth: 6.1 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Brant: 5.9 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 4.1 per 100K
  

Waterloo Region is reaching for the top now ...

[panamaniac]

K-W was clearly naughty over the holidays ...

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-01-07 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Windsor-Essex	208	53.5	188	48.4	+15%
Peel	568	41.1	500	36.2	+19%
Lambton	3	2.3	40	30.6	+9%
York	457	41.2	312	28.1	+28%
Toronto	891	30.4	762	26.0	+16%
Niagara	112	25.0	110	24.4	+27%
Middlesex-London	115	28.4	95	23.5	+28%
Hamilton	146	25.2	128	22.2	+24%
Southwestern Ontario	22	11.0	43	21.3	-4%
Durham	174	26.9	132	20.4	+33%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	90	33.1	52	19.0	+32%
Eastern Ontario	36	17.8	36	17.5	+41%
Waterloo	175	28.3	107	17.4	+47%
Halton	95	17.3	95	17.3	+16%
Chatham-Kent	19	17.9	18	16.7	+35%
Huron Perth	12	12.2	16	16.0	+10%
Brant	27	19.9	21	15.2	+22%
Simcoe-Muskoka	78	14.4	59	10.9	+20%
Ottawa	164	16.5	101	10.1	+38%
Leeds, Grenville & Lanark	10	5.9	6	3.7	+24%
Thunder Bay	7	4.7	5	3.5	+30%
Kingston Frontenac	4	2.0	6	3.1	+31%

[highlander]

They are called "congregate setting outbreaks". One with nine cases, the other with 16. And the second one is from the 29th, after the start of the shutdown, so it's a pretty easy guess who is doing the superspreading in Waterloo Region.

Sharing wine, bread and COVID-19 ...

I see the misunderstanding, from Public Health Ontario:

"Congregate living settings refer to a range of facilities where people (most or all of whom are not related) live or stay overnight and use shared spaces (e.g., common sleeping areas, bathrooms, kitchens) including:

Shelters
Group homes
Correctional facilities
Children or youth residential settings"

Does anyone know if there a list of the outbreaks in Waterloo Region since the beginning of the pandemic?

Not sure if anyone else is interested, but I answered my own question. On this page: https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/healt...egion.aspx you can "Filter outbreaks by status" and select "all outbreaks - active and over".

[tomh009]

THURSDAY 2021-01-07

Waterloo Region reported 173 (!) new cases today (21.0% of the active cases); 766 new cases for the week (+109), averaging 20.0% of active cases. 891 active cases, +362 in the last seven days.

No need to go looking for dumpster fires beyond our own region.

Ontario reported 3,519 new cases today with a seven-day average of3,141 (+27). 2,776 recoveries and 89 (!) deaths translated to an increase of 654 active cases and a new total of 26,718. +5,101 active cases for the week and 326 deaths (47 per day). 65,772 tests (finally back in the normal range) for a positivity rate of 5.35%. The positivity rate is averaging 6.28% for the past seven days, compared to 5.38% for the preceding seven.

If I were to look for a silver lining in today's provincial numbers, it is that there were "only" 250 more cases than yesterday, in spite of 15,000 more tests, implying an incremental positivity of only 1.7% for those additional tests. Hmmm. Better than nothing, I suppose.

363 patients in ICU (+2), and a total of 1472 hospital beds in use (+237 for the week).

• 208 cases in Windsor-Essex: 53.5 per 100K
  
• 457 cases in York: 41.2 per 100K
  
• 568 cases in Peel: 41.1 per 100K
  
• 90 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 33.1 per 100K
  
• 891 cases in Toronto: 30.4 per 100K
  
• 115 cases in Middlesex-London: 28.4 per 100K
  
• 175 cases in Waterloo: 28.3 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 174 cases in Durham: 26.9 per 100K
  
• 146 cases in Hamilton: 25.2 per 100K
  
• 112 cases in Niagara: 25.0 per 100K
  
• 27 cases in Brant: 19.9 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Chatham-Kent: 17.9 per 100K
  
• 36 cases in Eastern Ontario: 17.8 per 100K
  
• 95 cases in Halton: 17.3 per 100K
  
• 164 cases in Ottawa: 16.5 per 100K
  
• 78 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 14.4 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Huron Perth: 12.2 per 100K
  
• 22 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 11.0 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 5.9 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Thunder Bay: 4.7 per 100K
  

Today's bonus chart shows the Waterloo new cases, plus those cases as % of the provincial new cases. Our population is about 4% of the Ontario total.

   

[plam]

This is ridiculous. I wrote to my MPP, who happens to be Catherine Fife, advocating for the Canadian Shield strategy at https://covidstrategicchoices.ca/. Writing to opposition MPPs may be slightly less impactful than to backbench government MPPs but here we are.

[Rainrider22]

Interesting, accept is lacks insight as to who is paying for it....

[danbrotherston]

Interesting, accept is lacks insight as to who is paying for it....

Not sure what you mean?

Also, all policies have a cost, for example the current policy is being paid for with the blood of long term care residents and the suffering of healthcare workers.  And if you want an economic cost, our economy suffers more under a policy of viral spread.

[jeffster]

By "their" failure are you referring to the provincial or the national government?

"their" meaning the vaccine task force at the provincial level.

According to reporting, Hillier repeatedly said they weren't getting enough vaccines from the federal government, but they've only distributed 1/3rd of the vaccines they have received.

I've said it other places, but no wonder conservatives hate government so much, they have the most incompetent most corrupt governments, so of course they would have no faith in government.

It's a Federal issue, not provincial.

https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/ontario-runnin...-1.5255440

General Hillier admitted (my gawd) to the errors they made in holding back, back in December, but the issue is that we are running out vaccine. Meanwhile, Israel is on track to vaccinating their entire population by the end of January.

Meanwhile, all Canadians have to pound sand for at least another 6 months because the Federal government has no ability to procure the vaccine in a timely fashion.

[jeffster]

K-W was clearly naughty over the holidays ...

Lockdowns don't work. And the more you lockdown, the worse it gets. Quebec and California are good examples.

[tomh009]

K-W was clearly naughty over the holidays ...

Lockdowns don't work. And the more you lockdown, the worse it gets. Quebec and California are good examples.

And France?