The COVID-19 pandemic

[kps]

 Every time I see a line-up at the LCBO or the Beer Store, the die-hard Presbyterian in me judges harshly.

For beer, there are at least two directories of breweries offering local delivery: https://www.beerfinder.ca/ and https://obdi.ca/

So you can stay home and get drunk and avoid funding the foreign corporations that own the Beer Store and control what we can buy.

[jeffster]

I’m thinking that a toilet paper run this week might not be a bad idea ...

Yeah, that's not a bad idea. I'm going after work tomorrow.

So I went after work today and bought two packages of Cashmere.

[tomh009]

TUESDAY 2020-11-17

Waterloo Region reported 52 new cases for today (14.5% of the active cases).  374 new cases for the week (+11), averaging 18.2% of active cases. 354 active cases (+122 in the last seven days).

An average of 1,700 tests per day for the past week for a positivity rate of 3.53%.

Ontario reported 1,249 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,423 (-26). 1,135 recoveries and 12 deaths translated to an increase of 102 active cases, and a current total of 12,932. +2,826 active cases for the week, and 123 deaths. 26,468 tests (mostly on a Sunday) resulted in a 4.72% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 3.85% for the past seven days.

ICU bed count is up to 127 (+2) and the total hospital bed occupancy is up to 529 (+107 for the week).

• 569 cases in Toronto: 19.6 per 100K population
  
• 256 cases in Peel: 17.0 per 100K
  
• 94 cases in York: 8.5 per 100K
  
• 58 cases in Halton: 10.4 per 100K
  
• 69 cases in Durham: 10.1 per 100K
  
• 35 cases in Hamilton: 7.1 per 100K
  
• 27 cases in Niagara: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Ottawa: 1.1 per 100K
  
• 42 cases in Waterloo: 6.5 per 100K (based on provincial reporting, one day behind the region)[/color]
  

Way to go Ottawa -- although it's only one day. GTA is at 1,011 cases.

[taylortbb]

From NYTimes, "Immunity to the Coronavirus May Last Years, New Data Hint". https://nyti.ms/38QmM8A

It's still early data, but the indicators are certainly looking very positive. Combined with the news about vaccine efficacy I think it really demonstrates why it's so important we implement strong measures now. Cvoid-19 deaths avoided through lockdowns are likely to be truly avoided, not just delayed.

[tomh009]

From NYTimes, "Immunity to the Coronavirus May Last Years, New Data Hint". https://nyti.ms/38QmM8A

It's still early data, but the indicators are certainly looking very positive. Combined with the news about vaccine efficacy I think it really demonstrates why it's so important we implement strong measures now. Cvoid-19 deaths avoided through lockdowns are likely to be truly avoided, not just delayed.

Maybe yes. But looking at the quotes from the article, there are no guarantees here.

Eight months after infection, most people who have recovered still have enough immune cells to fend off the virus and prevent illness, the new data show. A slow rate of decline in the short term suggests, happily, that these cells may persist in the body for a very, very long time to come.

The research, published online, has not been peer-reviewed nor published in a scientific journal. But it is the most comprehensive and long-ranging study of immune memory to the coronavirus to date.

Anyway, first we need to get control of the situation before we worry about how many years of immunity a vaccination will provide.

[taylortbb]

Maybe yes. But looking at the quotes from the article, there are no guarantees here.

Eight months after infection, most people who have recovered still have enough immune cells to fend off the virus and prevent illness, the new data show. A slow rate of decline in the short term suggests, happily, that these cells may persist in the body for a very, very long time to come.

The research, published online, has not been peer-reviewed nor published in a scientific journal. But it is the most comprehensive and long-ranging study of immune memory to the coronavirus to date.

I think that's a pretty standard disclaimer on any recent discovery. It's published by a reputable group of scientists that specialize in this, on bioRxiv which is the standard place for pre-prints to go before they're published in journals (which is a slow process). It's definitely less confirmed than an actual peer reviewed journal article, and of course there's no guarantees except in retrospect when it comes to immunity, but it's (IMO) by far the strongest datapoint we have on this issue so far.

Anyway, first we need to get control of the situation before we worry about how many years of immunity a vaccination will provide.

That's my point though. Public support for getting control of the situation depends on people believing that the measures are worth it, and without support there's no compliance, and no ability to get it under control. If it was a virus we'd never be able to vaccinate for, then we might as well accept the deaths it causes and open up. We can't borrow money and hunker down indefinitely. But if we know that effective vaccines are coming, and that they'll bring a permanent end to the pandemic, then the calculation is very different.

Most of the anti-lockdown opposition I seen online these days takes the form of "we'll never defeat the virus, might as well get on with our lives". Data on vaccine efficacy, and durability of immunity, totally undercut those arguments. The fact we can defeat it, and likely within the next year, justifies the massive deficits that putting our economy on pause will generate.

[panamaniac]

TUESDAY 2020-11-17

Waterloo Region reported 52 new cases for today (14.5% of the active cases).  374 new cases for the week (+11), averaging 18.2% of active cases. 354 active cases (+122 in the last seven days).

An average of 1,700 tests per day for the past week for a positivity rate of 3.53%.

Ontario reported 1,249 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,423 (-26). 1,135 recoveries and 12 deaths translated to an increase of 102 active cases, and a current total of 12,932. +2,826 active cases for the week, and 123 deaths. 26,468 tests (mostly on a Sunday) resulted in a 4.72% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 3.85% for the past seven days.

ICU bed count is up to 127 (+2) and the total hospital bed occupancy is up to 529 (+107 for the week).

• 569 cases in Toronto: 19.6 per 100K population
  
• 256 cases in Peel: 17.0 per 100K
  
• 94 cases in York: 8.5 per 100K
  
• 58 cases in Halton: 10.4 per 100K
  
• 69 cases in Durham: 10.1 per 100K
  
• 35 cases in Hamilton: 7.1 per 100K
  
• 27 cases in Niagara: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Ottawa: 1.1 per 100K
  
• 42 cases in Waterloo: 6.5 per 100K (based on provincial reporting, one day behind the region)[/color]
  

Way to go Ottawa -- although it's only one day. GTA is at 1,011 cases.

Eleven is amazing, but Ottawa has been trending down for a week or two now.  With luck, they can keep it going until the post-Christmas/New Year’s surge that I fear is inevitable.

[plam]

taylortbb, agree with pretty much every word in your post.

It's published by a reputable group of scientists that specialize in this, on bioRxiv which is the standard place for pre-prints to go before they're published in journals (which is a slow process). It's definitely less confirmed than an actual peer reviewed journal article, and of course there's no guarantees except in retrospect when it comes to immunity, but it's (IMO) by far the strongest datapoint we have on this issue so far.

Peer review is going faster these days and in any case is not actually a guarantee of truth (but is correlated)---ultimate responsibility still lies with the authors who are best placed to know whether what they are saying is actually true. In general as a reader of information one has to consider how many data points are in support of a claim, how strong they are, and specifically whether there are any meta-analyses.

Having said that, for immunity I am inclined to believe that most people develop long-lasting immunity.

Most of the anti-lockdown opposition I seen online these days takes the form of "we'll never defeat the virus, might as well get on with our lives". Data on vaccine efficacy, and durability of immunity, totally undercut those arguments. The fact we can defeat it, and likely within the next year, justifies the massive deficits that putting our economy on pause will generate.

I don't think it was actually viable to get on with our lives, but I hope that the game is slowly changing. But there's also an important point that people aren't necessarily motivated by data but rather by their feelings about various topics and who else is saying things.

[tomh009]

Way to go Ottawa -- although it's only one day. GTA is at 1,011 cases.

Eleven is amazing, but Ottawa has been trending down for a week or two now.  With luck, they can keep it going until the post-Christmas/New Year’s surge that I fear is inevitable.

Ottawa is still a bit bouncy (41-77-62-51-11 in the last five days, I think) but hopefully the 11 is a harbinger of better days to come.

[tomh009]

WEDNESDAY 2020-11-18

Waterloo Region reported 37 new cases for today (10.5% of the active cases).  364 new cases for the week (-10), averaging 16.9% of active cases. 367 active cases (+117 in the last seven days).

Next testing report on Friday.

Ontario reported 1,417 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,422 (-1). 1,495 recoveries and 32 (!) deaths translated to a drop of 110 active cases, and a current total of 12,822. +2,191 active cases for the week, and 140 deaths. 33,440 tests resulted in a 4.24% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 3.90% for the past seven days.

ICU bed count is flat at 127 (+0) and the total hospital bed occupancy is up to 535 (+111 for the week).

• 463 cases in Peel: 30.9 per 100K population
  
• 410 cases in Toronto: 14.1 per 100K
  
• 178 cases in York: 16.1 per 100K
  
• 63 cases in Halton: 11.5 per 100K
  
• 46 cases in Hamilton: 9.2 per 100K
  
• 40 cases in Durham: 6.1 per 100K
  
• 27 cases in Niagara: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka
  
• 23 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph
  
• 22 cases in Ottawa: 2.2 per 100K
  
• 54 cases in Waterloo: 8.3 per 100K (based on provincial reporting, one day behind the region)[/color]
  

A second good day in Ottawa, but the GTA is up to 1,117 cases.

[ZEBuilder]

WEDNESDAY 2020-11-18

Ontario reported 1,417 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,422 (-1). 1,495 recoveries and 32 (!) deaths translated to a drop of 110 active cases, and a current total of 12,822.

this is the first major drop in active cases in a long time, i'd guess about a month?

[ac3r]

So Peel finally overtook Toronto. I'm not too surprised, though, as it has been hard hit the last few days. People in Brampton are spreading it like crazy. It's almost guaranteed to climb in a week or two thanks to Diwali...I know the police laid one charge due to a massive gathering to celebrate it but I'm sure it wasn't the only one going on, especially in private places.

[tomh009]

THURSDAY 2020-11-19

Waterloo Region reported 26 new cases -- the lowest figure in two weeks -- for today (7.1% of the active cases).  341 new cases for the week (-23), averaging 15.1% of active cases. 349 active cases (+80 in the last seven days).

Next testing report on Friday.

Ontario reported 1,210 new cases -- also a two-week low -- today with a seven-day average of 1,370 (-52). 1,376 recoveries and 28 deaths translated to a drop of 194 active cases, and a current total of 12,628. +1,357 active cases for the week, and 150 deaths (deaths lag infections, as do ICU admissions, and we are now seeing the impact of the surge of infections on the death counts). 41,838 tests resulted in a 2.89% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 3.74% for the past seven days.

ICU bed count is up to 146 (+19) but the total hospital bed occupancy dropped to 526 (+95 for the week).

• 361 cases in Peel: 24.0 per 100K population
  
• 346 cases in Toronto: 11.9 per 100K
  
• 143 cases in York: 9.6 per 100K
  
• 57 cases in Durham: 8.9 per 100K
  
• 37 cases in Hamilton: 7.4 per 100K
  
• 37 cases in Ottawa: 3.7 per 100K
  
• 35 cases in Halton: 20.8 per 100K
  
• 21 cases in Niagara: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 27 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka
  
• 24 cases in Windsor-Essex
  
• 28 cases in Waterloo: 4.3 per 100K (based on provincial reporting, one day behind the region)[/color]
  

Ottawa is up a bit but still not bad; the GTA is at 937 cases.

[ac3r]

COVID-19 cases in Canada could rise to 60,000 per day by end of year, Dr. Tam warns: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/a...d-of-year/

[tomh009]

COVID-19 cases in Canada could rise to 60,000 per day by end of year, Dr. Tam warns: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/a...d-of-year/

I wonder what data (until what date) was used for the projections. In the last week the number of cases in most provinces has been more stable. Still high, but the number of cases isn't getting inexorably higher each day. If this pattern holds, we should be able to avoid the kinds of numbers the projection is highlighting.

It's all about human behaviour at this point: if people smarten up and minimize their contacts, we can turn this trend around. But that's a big "if" at the moment.