Welcome Guest!
In order to take advantage of all the great features that Waterloo Region Connected has to offer, including participating in the lively discussions below, you're going to have to register. The good news is that it'll take less than a minute and you can get started enjoying Waterloo Region's best online community right away.
or Create an Account




Thread Rating:
  • 3 Vote(s) - 5 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
The COVID-19 pandemic
(07-08-2020, 06:10 PM)danbrotherston Wrote: First of all, this isn't necessarily true, you're assuming that believing people are lying is targeted at random, and there are fewer liars than non-liars. I think both are unlikely.

I expect the majority of people who claim an exemption to be lying. My basis for this belief is from my experience that masks provide very little impediment to breathing, therefore, one must have an extremely serious breathing problem to be unable to wear a mask. And number who would lie about having a medical reason, while still rare, I suspect is less rare.

I expect beliefs about people faking to be relatively well targeted, largely because people who choose not to wear a mask for reasons other than medical limitations, are unlikely to be quiet about those other beliefs, more, unlike someone with a severe breathing problem, is also likely to be very unafraid of the virus.

To be fair, I'm making a lot of assumptions, but we will see.

But I do think that it doesn't really matter, we only need 80% (My intuition is that the number is actually higher, but the study I've seen quote says 80%) to have an effective policy, and I still have hope that the asshole population in the region is pretty low, say under 5%.

Thank you for stating my assumptions. I should have done so better, and you have them right. Thank you also for helped me clarify my thoughts on the matter better.

I think it's impossible to set a universal bar of "legitimacy", but for the sake of the discussion can we agree on a doctor's note? I think they're relatively ease to get but that's actually not a problem for my position.

Anyway, whatever that bar is, it turns out that I think that if even one "legitimately" mask-less person gets credentialed in Waterloo Region within the next seven days, that act is more distasteful to me than thousands of assholes using the loophole to go inside places. I don't think there will be thousands who do, even out of the Region's full half million, especially after going out today when a _ton_ of people were masked compared to any time in the past 3 months.

There's going to be a couple of news stories about confrontations probably, and that cartoonist from Wilmot's going to have a take, but the argument is over in practice. The rest of the province is doing it, everyone here is doing it (I was out yesterday and today and the difference even between the two was notable), that culture war isn't one we're going to have at the same scale here. Our heat seems to be turning more towards police defunding. My take on our local Reddits even is that even they are mostly pro mask.

I just feel like everyone's going through too much actual shit for actually sick people to have to defend themselves over something that doesn't matter in practice in this very specific geographic area at this very specific point in time.
Reply


(07-08-2020, 08:33 PM)robdrimmie Wrote:
(07-08-2020, 06:10 PM)danbrotherston Wrote: First of all, this isn't necessarily true, you're assuming that believing people are lying is targeted at random, and there are fewer liars than non-liars. I think both are unlikely.

I expect the majority of people who claim an exemption to be lying. My basis for this belief is from my experience that masks provide very little impediment to breathing, therefore, one must have an extremely serious breathing problem to be unable to wear a mask. And number who would lie about having a medical reason, while still rare, I suspect is less rare.

I expect beliefs about people faking to be relatively well targeted, largely because people who choose not to wear a mask for reasons other than medical limitations, are unlikely to be quiet about those other beliefs, more, unlike someone with a severe breathing problem, is also likely to be very unafraid of the virus.

To be fair, I'm making a lot of assumptions, but we will see.

But I do think that it doesn't really matter, we only need 80% (My intuition is that the number is actually higher, but the study I've seen quote says 80%) to have an effective policy, and I still have hope that the asshole population in the region is pretty low, say under 5%.

Thank you for stating my assumptions. I should have done so better, and you have them right. Thank you also for helped me clarify my thoughts on the matter better.

I think it's impossible to set a universal bar of "legitimacy", but for the sake of the discussion can we agree on a doctor's note? I think they're relatively ease to get but that's actually not a problem for my position.

Anyway, whatever that bar is, it turns out that I think that if even one "legitimately" mask-less person gets credentialed in Waterloo Region within the next seven days, that act is more distasteful to me than thousands of assholes using the loophole to go inside places. I don't think there will be thousands who do, even out of the Region's full half million, especially after going out today when a _ton_ of people were masked compared to any time in the past 3 months.

There's going to be a couple of news stories about confrontations probably, and that cartoonist from Wilmot's going to have a take, but the argument is over in practice. The rest of the province is doing it, everyone here is doing it (I was out yesterday and today and the difference even between the two was notable), that culture war isn't one we're going to have at the same scale here. Our heat seems to be turning more towards police defunding. My take on our local Reddits even is that even they are mostly pro mask.

I just feel like everyone's going through too much actual shit for actually sick people to have to defend themselves over something that doesn't matter in practice in this very specific geographic area at this very specific point in time.

Yeah, I mean, a few thousand people in a region of half a million is a few percent at most, and even with my incredulity at models showing 80% is enough, I would think 95% is definitely enough.  I mean, masks aren't 100% obviously, but if they're anywhere close, it makes sense as transmission would drop precipitously. At a minimum, the biggest risks are going to be shifted to places where masks aren't worn--workplaces, parties, etc.

I think you're right, there will be lots of news of the few confrontations--it makes good headlines, but agree it will die down quickly. Popular opinion seems to be on the side of masks. It will end up more of a human psychology interest story than a human sociology one.

I do think the bylaw is basically having none of the "credentialling"..they aren't even going to attempt, which I think makes sense.  Responsive government is usually better policy, if 95% of people are wearing masks, I don't care that 4% are cheating.  But if we find that 70% of people are wearing masks, well, maybe we need to think about it.

A doctors note is certainly a reasonable standard, nobody but doctors should be setting that standard, and we have no better choice than trusting them. AFAIK it's already the standard for an accessible parking placard.

I hope you are right about the culture war in general however. Things here seem to be less in crisis, but no less...problematic I think.  One of the bigger issue I see in the states is that there is still no meaningful progress in most places.  Protests continue, but the media has moved on...people there (and here too) are ignored when they aren't violent.
Reply
Not our region, but the reporting has begun:

https://kitchener.ctvnews.ca/video?clipI...sc=UmQ7OYS

But I think the point is clear, people who are angry and irate enough to not wear a mask, even if they will lie about having a medical reason are going to expose themselves in other ways. In this case, not mentioned in the video, but you can see that social distancing is out the window, this person is in the managers face. The racism is just the cherry on top...but I don't think it's going to be uncommon...these sets of values go together.

I don't think many calm rational people who would be able to calmly lie about having a medical condition are going to care enough or bother to do so just to avoid wearing a mask.
Reply
Waterloo Region reported only two new cases today; the new case increase was 0.2% of the total cases to date and 3.4% of the current active caseload. New cases averaging 4.3% of actives over the past seven days. Active cases in the region were down by eight to 59, and down 26 in the past seven days, from 85 to 59.

Next testing data release is tomorrow.

Ontario reported 170 new cases today, for a seven-day average of 140 new cases. 172 recoveries and three deaths translated to a decrease of five active cases, for a new low of 1,668, after a weekly total change of -292. 26,326 tests for a 0.6% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 0.65% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.5% of the total and 10.2% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 7.8% of actives over the past seven days.

Hospital population stayed at 123 (+0) but the ICU population dropped to a new low of 31 (-4).
Reply
(07-09-2020, 10:03 AM)danbrotherston Wrote: Not our region, but the reporting has begun:

https://kitchener.ctvnews.ca/video?clipI...sc=UmQ7OYS

But I think the point is clear, people who are angry and irate enough to not wear a mask, even if they will lie about having a medical reason are going to expose themselves in other ways.  In this case, not mentioned in the video, but you can see that social distancing is out the window, this person is in the managers face.  The racism is just the cherry on top...but I don't think it's going to be uncommon...these sets of values go together.

I don't think many calm rational people who would be able to calmly lie about having a medical condition are going to care enough or bother to do so just to avoid wearing a mask.


It seems especially telling that this is happening at a T&T. They've had a Canada-wide mask policy enforced by security in stores for around two months now (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/t-...-1.5557515). This person was looking for a fight and because the store enforced a masking policy they got it and they got to spew their racist bullshit publicly.

From this article: https://www.insauga.com/mississauga-pass...mask-bylaw
Quote:While Rogers said that it will be incumbent upon businesses to enforce mandatory mask policies, he did say that operators will not be permitted to ask for proof of a medical condition or even ask what medical condition might preclude someone from wearing a mask or face covering.

Also note that the bylaw in Mississauga isn't even in effect until July 10.

I agree this asshole is a liar, it's exactly as Bytor described. This sort of incident is exactly why I think that we need to just let them be, at least for a bit. No one at the store needed that in their lives, especially not the staff who were targeted by the anti-Chinese racism and while this sort of massive public shame might change this particular asshole's stance, now a bunch of other assholes may think they need to make a point too. I don't know what the balance to strike on reporting these issues and the risk of inciting more of them, but it's a concern to me.

I don't mean to ignore your previous message, it's just that I agree with you pretty much entirely. Our culture conflict is definitely hot but I don't think that masks will be an inflection point. Everything I'm saying is absolutely predicated on the hope that we achieve very high compliance. If we don't additional enforcement will absolutely be necessary.
Reply
Does anyone know why the COVID SHEILD app wasn't released as scheduled last week (Jul 2), and if there is a new release date? I know the province said they were delaying it, but I've heard nothing since.

Coke
Reply
(07-09-2020, 10:53 AM)tomh009 Wrote: Ontario reported 170 new cases today, for a seven-day average of 140 new cases. 172 recoveries and three deaths translated to a decrease of five active cases, for a new low of 1,668, after a weekly total change of -292. 26,326 tests for a 0.6% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 0.65% for the past seven days.

More pandemonium in Windsor today: 86 of the 170 new cases were in Windsor-Essex, mostly among farm workers (probably mostly temporary).

On the good news front:
  • 20 regions had no new cases at all
  • 10 regions (including Waterloo) had 1-5 cases
Reply


(07-09-2020, 03:03 PM)tomh009 Wrote:
(07-09-2020, 10:53 AM)tomh009 Wrote: Ontario reported 170 new cases today, for a seven-day average of 140 new cases. 172 recoveries and three deaths translated to a decrease of five active cases, for a new low of 1,668, after a weekly total change of -292. 26,326 tests for a 0.6% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 0.65% for the past seven days.

More pandemonium in Windsor today: 86 of the 170 new cases were in Windsor-Essex, mostly among farm workers (probably mostly temporary).

On the good news front:
  • 20 regions had no new cases at all
  • 10 regions (including Waterloo) had 1-5 cases


Wondering how Windsor is always bouncing up and down like this. And 86 is over 1/2 of the cases. That's insane. You have to wonder if it's related, at all, to the border crossing.
Reply
(07-09-2020, 06:55 PM)jeffster Wrote:
(07-09-2020, 03:03 PM)tomh009 Wrote: More pandemonium in Windsor today: 86 of the 170 new cases were in Windsor-Essex, mostly among farm workers (probably mostly temporary).

On the good news front:
  • 20 regions had no new cases at all
  • 10 regions (including Waterloo) had 1-5 cases


Wondering how Windsor is always bouncing up and down like this. And 86 is over 1/2 of the cases. That's insane. You have to wonder if it's related, at all, to the border crossing.

Not likely, given the spikes, I would guess that it is groups of farm workers who are getting tested all a the same time.

This is proving to be a really big problem. Frankly, it makes me even more uncomfortable with the farm worker situation.
Reply
Waterloo Region again reported only two new cases today; the new case increase was 0.2% of the total cases to date and 3.8% of the current active caseload. New cases averaging 4.3% of actives over the past seven days. Active cases in the region were down by six to 53, and down 29 in the past seven days, from 82 to 53.

1,896 tests over the past three days, or an average of 631 per day. Test positivity averaged 0.4% over those three days. Next testing data update will be on Tuesday.

Ontario reported 116 new cases today, for a seven-day average of 133 new cases. 178 recoveries and seven deaths translated to a decrease of 69 active cases, for a new low of 1,599, after a weekly total change of -345. 27,484 tests for a 0.4% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 0.6% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.3% of the total and 7.3% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 7.6% of actives over the past seven days.

Hospital population dropped to 117 (-6) but the ICU population popped up to 34 (+3).
Reply
Phase 3, come on down!?
Reply
Whatever that means. Smile

An increase in the use of masks should make this much less risky.
Reply
(07-07-2020, 09:20 PM)tomh009 Wrote: Masks now mandatory in almost all of southern Ontario (except York, Niagara and Halton regions):
  • Toronto
  • Durham
  • Waterloo
  • Peel
  • Kingston
  • Windsor-Essex County
  • Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph
  • Lennox and Addington County
  • Frontenac County
  • Middlesex-London (on public transit and where physical distancing is not possible)
  • Prescott-Russell
  • Leeds and Grenville
  • Lanark
  • Renfrew County
  • United Counties of Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry
  • Sudbury-Manitoulin
  • Nipissing District

York regional council also unanimously approved a mask bylaw. The only gaps in southern Ontario are now York (debate postponed to next council meeting) and Halton (Halton Hills, Milton and Oakville councils are all pushing the region to approve a mask bylaw).
Reply


(07-09-2020, 07:29 PM)danbrotherston Wrote:
(07-09-2020, 06:55 PM)jeffster Wrote: Wondering how Windsor is always bouncing up and down like this. And 86 is over 1/2 of the cases. That's insane. You have to wonder if it's related, at all, to the border crossing.

Not likely, given the spikes, I would guess that it is groups of farm workers who are getting tested all a the same time.

This is proving to be a really big problem. Frankly, it makes me even more uncomfortable with the farm worker situation.

Yes, this is true. Issue is that it seems cheaper to ship these workers from poor nations to Canada, house them, feed them, and pay them whatever, than hire Canadians to do the same job. Farm work is hard, no doubt though. And I am guessing that not many would do this for minimum wage or even close to it. Perhaps the government needs to look at incentives for farmers and farm workers to make hiring local for enticing.

Now as it stands, it looks to be way more expensive to have migrant workers. I am sure some would be upset if we stopped such programs, being that it’s lost opportunities for those from other countries. But it’s probably time to think about doing it local again.
Reply
(07-10-2020, 12:33 PM)jeffster Wrote:
(07-09-2020, 07:29 PM)danbrotherston Wrote: Not likely, given the spikes, I would guess that it is groups of farm workers who are getting tested all a the same time.

This is proving to be a really big problem. Frankly, it makes me even more uncomfortable with the farm worker situation.

Yes, this is true. Issue is that it seems cheaper to ship these workers from poor nations to Canada, house them, feed them, and pay them whatever, than hire Canadians to do the same job. Farm work is hard, no doubt though. And I am guessing that not many would do this for minimum wage or even close to it. Perhaps the government needs to look at incentives for farmers and farm workers to make hiring local for enticing.

Now as it stands, it looks to be way more expensive to have migrant workers. I am sure some would be upset if we stopped such programs, being that it’s lost opportunities for those from other countries. But it’s probably time to think about doing it local again.

Yeah, there are a number of different factors. Our agricultural industry must continue to be competitive. I don't think it's reasonable to have cheaper imports decimate our farms because labor is cheaper elsewhere, but tariffs also have problems.

And whether our relationship with the migrant workers is abusive or not might depend on who you ask, this year, probably a long stronger of a consensus, but one thing is clear, we (Canada, the farm owners, whatever) have all the power in the relationship with these workers, and that in itself is a problem.

Even just switching is a huge issue. I'm sure they could pay enough for Canadians to do the work, (it would certainly drive up the price of produce), but this is not something that can be done in a day, or a week, or even a month, the entire system is setup for one labor force, they have no recruiting tools to quickly ramp up others.

And I'm not totally sure it would even solve anything. If they managed to find enough Canadians willing to do back breaking labor for low pay, and house them in dorms, we'd still be in a situation with a power imbalance in the relationship and living conditions which would result in spreading of this virus.
Reply
« Next Oldest | Next Newest »



Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)

About Waterloo Region Connected

Launched in August 2014, Waterloo Region Connected is an online community that brings together all the things that make Waterloo Region great. Waterloo Region Connected provides user-driven content fueled by a lively discussion forum covering topics like urban development, transportation projects, heritage issues, businesses and other issues of interest to those in Kitchener, Waterloo, Cambridge and the four Townships - North Dumfries, Wellesley, Wilmot, and Woolwich.

              User Links