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Waterloo Region reported only two cases today, continuing on a recent strong performance. The number of LTC facilities with active cases is still at two. The new case increase is 0.2% of the total cases to date and 2.0% of the current active caseload. 102 cases now active in the region, down seven, and down (only) eight in the past seven days. New cases averaging 5.0% of actives over the past seven days.
Only 173 people tested in the region, but with a low 1.2% positivity rate. Over the last seven days, we are averaging 312 tests per day and a 2.1% positivity rate.
Ontario reported 182 new cases, the lowest since March, for a seven-day average of 241 new cases. 302 recoveries and 11 deaths translate to a decrease of 131 active cases, now down to 3,041, and a weekly total change of -1,042. A record of 31,726 (!) tests today for a super-low 0.6% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging just 1.2% for the past seven days.
The new cases are 0.6% of the total and a very reasonable 6.0% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 6.7% of actives over the past seven days.
The hospital population dropped again, now to 527 (-11) while the ICU population was down to a new low, to 114 (-6).
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Was there ever any reporting done on bed usage?
I found some numbers total acute care and critical care beds in the Region, and the target (in normal times) is apparently 80% utilisation which would have meant roughly 150-160 acute beds free and 14-15 critical beds free on any random day, plus the 24 addition temporary critical care beds that were made from converted surgical suites.
Another CBC article talked about how people spend about 10 days on average in the hospital with Covid-19 unless they need a critical (ICU) care bed, for which it's 20 days on average.
That would mean we could handle up to 15-16 acute covid-19 hospitalisations per day (150 beds / 10 days per stay) or 1.9 critical admissions per day (32 beds / 20 days per stay). That's the point where all beds are always in use and as soon as somebody is discharged their bed is immediately filled by a new case.
Cancelling elective surgeries can help a bit, but it's surprising how much of that is just day surgery. For example, my complete shoulder replacement that should have happened in May takes 4+ hours to complete and I'll get sent home later that same day, and I'm not taking up an acute care bed during those few hours until I get discharged. That means the extra bed spaces gained from cancelling elective surgeries are not that many.
600,000 people in the Region, if 70% of people get infected over the course of a year, all evenly spaced out would be ~1,151 people per day. If 90% of the cases are not counted because of inadequate testing, that leaves ~115 per day.
Have I missed anything in trying work out our local capacity?
According to the Region, 5% of known cases have needed a critical care bed and 15% have needed an acute care bed. 15% of 115 is 17.25 new acute cases per day. 5% 115 is 5.8 new critical cases per day. If they really pushed I'm sure they could find ~20 extra beds for acute cases, but eventually they'd have 3x as many people needing ICU as they can handle.
But spread out nicely over year is something that we know isn;t going going to happen, so I think it's obvious we would be overwhelmed long before the peak if we did nothing.
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No reports from Waterloo Region on weekends now.
Ontario reported 266 new cases for a seven-day average of 224 new cases. 351 recoveries and only 9 deaths translate to a decrease of 94 active cases, now down to 2,947, below 3,000 the first time since April 6th. The weekly total change is -1,124. 27,456 tests today for a 1.0% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging just 1.1% for the past seven days.
The new cases are 0.8% of the total and 9.0% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 6.5% of actives over the past seven days.
The hospital population dropped again, now to 489 (-23) while the ICU population was down to another new low, to 110 (-4).
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No reports from Waterloo Region on weekends now.
Ontario reported 197 new cases for a seven-day average of 225 new cases. 423 recoveries and 12 deaths translate to a decrease of 238 active cases, now down to 2,709. The weekly total change is -1,230. 23,278 tests today for a 0.8% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 1.1% for the past seven days.
The new cases are 0.6% of the total and 7.3% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 6.9% of actives over the past seven days.
The hospital population dropped again, now to 438 (-51) and the ICU population is now down to 103 (-7).
Now averaging new cases in the low 200s for the last eight days, which is encouraging, and 12 straight days of decreases in active cases. If we can keep this up for another two weeks I might actually start feeling comfortable about the situation.
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Due to the weekend, Waterloo Region reported three days' worth of data today. A total of 23 cases, much more than recently. The only LTC facility with active cases is now Forest Heights Revera. The new case increase is 1.9% of the total cases to date (for the weekend) and 8.0% of the current active caseload. Only 89 cases now active in the region, down 12 over the weekend, and down 18 in the past seven days. New cases averaging 5.5% of actives over the past seven days.
An average of only 211 people tested in the region over the weekend, with a 3.6% positivity rate. Over the last seven days, we are averaging 309 tests per day and a 2.2% positivity rate.
Ontario reported 181 new cases, another new low, for a seven-day average of 216 new cases. 252 recoveries and only eight deaths translate to a decrease of 79 active cases, now down to 2,630, and a weekly total change of -1,288. 21,751 tests today for a low 0.8% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging just 1.0% for the past seven days.
The new cases are 0.6% of the total and 6.9% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 7.0% of actives over the past seven days.
The hospital population dropped again, now to 419 (-19) while the ICU population was up a notch, to 104 (-+1).
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(06-12-2020, 12:23 PM)Bytor Wrote: Was there ever any reporting done on bed usage?
I found some numbers total acute care and critical care beds in the Region, and the target (in normal times) is apparently 80% utilisation which would have meant roughly 150-160 acute beds free and 14-15 critical beds free on any random day, plus the 24 addition temporary critical care beds that were made from converted surgical suites.
92 ICU beds in Waterloo-Wellington.
There was a CBC article at the end of March that had some usage numbers (30 in ICU in Waterloo-Wellington) but some of the numbers and calculations weren't entirely clear and didn't match with other sources.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/c...-1.5514041
Anecdotally, my sister-on-law has reported that there have been a lot more empty beds than usual, so the normal 80% utilization really won't be applicable.
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(06-15-2020, 12:48 PM)tomh009 Wrote: Anecdotally, my sister-on-law has reported that there have been a lot more empty beds than usual, so the normal 80% utilization really won't be applicable.
A lot less flu than usual in NZ, for obvious reasons:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/artic...d=12339726
They did not report hospital bed usage.
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Waterloo Region reported eight new cases. Forest Heights Revera remains the only LTC facility with an outbreak. The new case increase is 0.7% of the total cases to date and 8.6% of the current active caseload. 93 cases now active in the region, up four but down two in the past seven days. New cases averaging 6.5% of actives over the past seven days.
Only 172 people tested in the region over the weekend, with a 4.7% positivity rate. Over the last seven days, we are averaging only 240 tests per day and a 2.9% positivity rate.
Ontario reported 184 new cases for a seven-day average of 209 new cases. 218 recoveries and 11 deaths translate to a decrease of 45 active cases, now down to 2,585, and a weekly total change of -1,212. 21,724 tests today for a low 0.8% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging just 0.9% for the past seven days.
The new cases are 0.6% of the total and 7.1% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 7.1% of actives over the past seven days.
The hospital population dropped again, now to 413 (-6) while the ICU population dropped below 100, to 98 (-6), for the first time since March.
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Waterloo Region reported only three new cases, for a seven-day average of 7.0. Forest Heights Revera remains the only LTC facility with an outbreak. The new case increase is 0.2% of the total cases to date and 3.5% of the current active caseload. 86 cases now active in the region, down seven and down 20 in the past seven days. New cases averaging 6.3% of actives over the past seven days.
Only 146 people tested in the region, albeit with a low 2.1% positivity rate. Over the last seven days, we are averaging only 200 tests per day and a 3.0% positivity rate.
Ontario reported 190 new cases for an encouraging seven-day average of 200 new cases. 353 recoveries and 12 deaths translate to a decrease of 175 active cases, now down to 2,410, and a weekly total change of -1,076. 24,205 tests today for a low 0.8% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging just 0.8% for the past seven days.
The new cases are 0.6% of the total and 7.9% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 7.2% of actives over the past seven days.
The hospital population dropped again, now to 383 (-30) while the ICU population dropped to 92 (-6).
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Waterloo Region reported five new cases, for a seven-day average of 5.7. Forest Heights Revera remains the only LTC facility with an outbreak. The new case increase is 0.4% of the total cases to date and 5.8% of the current active caseload. 86 cases active in the region, down 19 in the past seven days. New cases averaging 6.1% of actives over the past seven days.
Only 145 people tested in the region, with a 3.4% positivity rate. Over the last seven days, we are averaging only 181 tests per day and a 3.1% positivity rate.
Ontario reported 173 new cases for an encouraging seven-day average of 196 new cases. 220 recoveries and only three deaths translate to a decrease of 50 active cases, now down to 2,360, and a weekly total change of -812. 25,278 tests today for a low 0.7% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging just 0.8% for the past seven days.
The new cases are 0.5% of the total and 7.3% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 7.2% of actives over the past seven days.
The hospital population dropped again, now to 351 (-32) while the ICU population dropped to 84 (-8).
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Waterloo Region reported three new cases, for a seven-day average of 5.9. Two more LTC outbreaks marked as active, although both have only one case each. The new case increase is 0.2% of the total cases to date and 3.9% of the current active caseload. 76 cases active in the region, down 22 in the past seven days. New cases averaging 6.4% of actives over the past seven days.
The region reported 25,991 tests to date, 2,241 more than yesterday so I think they have changed something in the tracking process, and can't determine a positivity rate this time.
Ontario reported 178 new cases for an encouraging seven-day average of 196 new cases. 246 220 recoveries and eleven three deaths translate to a decrease of 79 active cases, now down to 2,281, and a weekly total change of -760. 27,225 tests today for a low 0.7% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging just 0.8% for the past seven days.
The new cases are 0.5% of the total and 7.8% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 7.6% of actives over the past seven days.
The hospital population dropped again, now to 331 (-20) while the ICU population dropped to 82 (-2).
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No report from the Waterloo Region on Saturday or Sunday.
Ontario reported a somewhat-higher 206 new cases for an encouraging seven-day average of 187 new cases. 218 recoveries and 31 deaths translate to a decrease of 43 active cases, now down to 2,238, and a weekly total change of -709. 27,387 tests today for a low 0.8% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging just 0.8% for the past seven days.
The new cases are 0.6% of the total and 9.2% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 7.6% of actives over the past seven days.
The hospital population inched up slightly, to 333 (+2) while the ICU population dropped to 80 (-2).
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(06-19-2020, 11:04 AM)tomh009 Wrote: Ontario reported 178 new cases for an encouraging seven-day average of 196 new cases. 220 recoveries and only three deaths translate to a decrease of 79 active cases, now down to 2,281, and a weekly total change of -760. 27,225 tests today for a low 0.7% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging just 0.8% for the past seven days. Shouldn't it be a decrease of 45 active cases, since with 223 cases no longer active from both deaths and recovered and 178 new the difference is only 45 instead of 79
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(06-20-2020, 06:27 PM)ZEBuilder Wrote: (06-19-2020, 11:04 AM)tomh009 Wrote: Ontario reported 178 new cases for an encouraging seven-day average of 196 new cases. 220 recoveries and only three deaths translate to a decrease of 79 active cases, now down to 2,281, and a weekly total change of -760. 27,225 tests today for a low 0.7% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging just 0.8% for the past seven days.
Shouldn't it be a decrease of 45 active cases, since with 223 cases no longer active from both deaths and recovered and 178 new the difference is only 45 instead of 79
Sorry about that, my mistake in transcribing numbers: there were actually 246 recoveries and 11 deaths, so the drop in actives is correct. Have revised the original post now.
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No report from the Waterloo Region on Saturday or Sunday.
Ontario reported a fairly low 175 new cases for an encouraging seven-day average of 184 new cases. 251 recoveries and 11 deaths translate to a decrease of 87 active cases, now down to 2,151, and a weekly total change of -558. 23,408 tests today for a low 0.7% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging just 0.75% for the past seven days.
The new cases are 0.5% of the total and 8.1% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 7.8% of actives over the past seven days.
The hospital population dropped to 286 (-47) but the ICU population is up to 86 (+6).
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