The COVID-19 pandemic

[tomh009]

Waterloo Region reported 12 new cases today, a 1.2% increase on the total and 3.8% of active cases. There are now 317 active cases, given 550 recoveries and 108 deaths.

Ontario new-case count dropped down to 258 today, lower than at any time since March, a 1.2% increase on the total and 7.4% of active cases. 359 recovered and 33 dead for a net decrease of 134 active cases. There are now under 3,500 (3,492, to be precise) active cases, given 16,204 recoveries and 1,798 deaths.

492,487 tests to date with 17,249 for the day. Only 1.5% of the daily tests were positive, and 2.2% over the past seven days. 1026 cases currently hospitalized (+6) and the ICU count is now down to 184 (-5).

Quebec added 755 cases today, a touch more than yesterday, for a 1.9% increase. They reported 308,035 people tested to date, only about 5,100 in the last 24h, so 14.8% of the tests were positive. 190 cases currently in ICU (+4).

[panamaniac]

Very good news on the new case front. The numbers have seemed frustratingly sticky the past couple of weeks.

[tomh009]

Waterloo Region reported ten new cases yesterday, a 1.0% increase on the total and 3.1% of active cases. There are now 318 active cases, given 559 recoveries and 108 deaths.

Ontario new-case count up to 428 today, a 2.0% increase on the total and 9.6% of active cases. 437 recovered and 27 dead for a net decrease of 36 active cases, a total drop of 612 (15%) for the past seven days. There are now 3,456 active cases, given 16,641 recoveries and 1,825 deaths.

510,841 tests to date with 18,354 for the day. 2.3% of the daily tests were positive, and 2.1% over the past seven days. 986 cases currently hospitalized (-40) and 179 in the ICU (-5).

Quebec added 695 cases today, the first count under 700 in about three weeks, for a 1.7% increase. They reported 316,050 people tested to date, about 8,000 in the last 24h, so 8.7% of the tests were positive; the seven-day positivity rate is still over 15%. 191 cases currently in ICU (+1).

[ZEBuilder]

Yesterday's super low number of new cases was caused by a data glitch. There were 87 cases not accounted for because of the glitch. The extra 87 were added onto today's number so it is 87 cases larger, if the glitch didn't occur there would have been 345 cases yesterday instead of the 258 recorded, and 341 today instead of the 428 recorded.
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/mobile/ontari...-1.4940918

[tomh009]

Yesterday's super low number of new cases was caused by a data glitch. There were 87 cases not accounted for because of the glitch. The extra 87 were added onto today's number so it is 87 cases larger, if the glitch didn't occur there would have been 345 cases yesterday instead of the 258 recorded, and 341 today instead of the 428 recorded.
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/mobile/ontari...-1.4940918

Thanks! I'm actually happier to see a stable count around 340 -- and a stable positivity rate of about 2.0% with around 18,000 tests per day. New cases as a percentage of active cases is remaining under 10%.

[taylortbb]

The Record has some interesting (and concerning) analysis of the local testing situation, https://www.therecord.com/news/waterloo-...y-far.html .

Especially:

Waterloo Region has the lowest testing rate for COVID-19 in Ontario by far. But when people are tested here, they test positive more often than almost anywhere else.
[...]
The study found that this region tested 5,198 people by April 30. That’s a rate of 871 tests per 100,000 residents.

This per-capita rate falls 21 per cent below the next lowest testing rate across 34 public health units. No other health unit has a rate below 1,100 tests.

Hamilton has almost the same population as this region. It tested 11,182 people for a rate of 1,896 tests per 100,000 people, more than double the COVID testing rate in this region.

[panamaniac]

Why is this?

[taylortbb]

Why is this?

Based on my personal experience, even when you're in a priority testing group getting tested here is a bureaucratic nightmare. Everyone thinks it's up to someone else to order Covid-19 tests, so I got bounced around dozens of people, including repeated wrong info from Waterloo Region public health. Other places don't require quite so many hoops before they'll test you.

[tomh009]

The Record has some interesting (and concerning) analysis of the local testing situation, https://www.therecord.com/news/waterloo-...y-far.html .

Especially:

Waterloo Region has the lowest testing rate for COVID-19 in Ontario by far. But when people are tested here, they test positive more often than almost anywhere else.
[...]
The study found that this region tested 5,198 people by April 30. That’s a rate of 871 tests per 100,000 residents.

This per-capita rate falls 21 per cent below the next lowest testing rate across 34 public health units. No other health unit has a rate below 1,100 tests.

Hamilton has almost the same population as this region. It tested 11,182 people for a rate of 1,896 tests per 100,000 people, more than double the COVID testing rate in this region.

Analysis? I read the article, and I was complaining to my wife that there was no analysis. All the author (our favourite Record writer, Jeff Outhit) did was publish the ICES dashboard data for the number of tests and the positivity. And the data is now two weeks old, half an eternity given how fast things change.
https://www.ices.on.ca/DAS/AHRQ/COVID-19-Dashboard

The full study actually has a lot more detail and could have been used as a basis for an in-depth article of what's going on in the Waterloo-Welligton public health unit.
https://www.ices.on.ca/Publications/Atla...in-Ontario

There is no question that the number of tests is low. But why is that? Where is the bottleneck? Is it because our public health had to focus on testing at LTC facilities? Was there any attempt to contact public health to get their reasons?

The positivity rate is quite high at 9.6%, but with the low number of tests one expects it to be higher. Adjusting for the amount of testing, I think the positivity is mid-pack for the Ontario regions. And the high number of cases in LTC certainly contributes to the high positivity.

I would really love some proper analysis.

[JoeKW]

Tom Galloway said that 3000 tests weren't counted so the region isn't doing as poorly as it looks.

[panamaniac]

Tom Galloway said that 3000 tests weren't counted so the region isn't doing as poorly as it looks.

Why would one not count 3,000 tests?   Sounds like a hot mess.  Who is accountable?

[ac3r]

I am curious who those 3000 tests belong to. I know they were testing LTC home residents and staff, so perhaps that number includes those people? But I don't see why they would not count them.

[robdrimmie]

More unfortunate information about local testing challenges. Some swabs lost before the tests and one person who had to be swabbed three times (across several days) because of it. Apparently local labs are overwhelmed, so many regional tests have to be shipped elsewhere.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener...-1.5570615

[panamaniac]

Shocking to think that, in a Region this size, simple medical tests need to be sent to out of town labs to be processed. One hopes lessons will be learned ....

[tomh009]

Shocking to think that, in a Region this size, simple medical tests need to be sent to out of town labs to be processed.  One hopes lessons will be learned ....

It's not really that simple a test, compared to most medical testing as it's checking for the viral RNA. Until now, there has been no need to have this level of RNA testing capacity.