The COVID-19 pandemic

[taylortbb]

Our break was later, but I have to believe that by that time it started, most people had already canceled due to COVID-19.

I wish I shared your faith in humanity. Anecdotal reports I read on Facebook and other social media was mostly people saying that everyone they knew went on March break as usual.

[tomh009]

Our break was later, but I have to believe that by that time it started, most people had already canceled due to COVID-19.

I wish I shared your faith in humanity. Anecdotal reports I read on Facebook and other social media was mostly people saying that everyone they knew went on March break as usual.

I don't have a lot of anecdotal data. But by March 14, when the break started, Italy was already on full lockdown, Trump had banned travel from Europe, and our federal government had asked people to do essential travel only.

Maybe everyone is stupid. Maybe. But I'd like to have some data rather than just anecdotal references.

[plam]

Quebec kept its restaurants open longer, but there are also differences in the timing/origins of returning travellers.  If the latter is a factor, Ontario might see a big jump next week, although one hopes not.

Quebec's spring break was over on the 8th, well more than two weeks ago, so the vast bulk of people should have returned a long time ago, and the infections should have been apparent already last week or before.

Our break was later, but I have to believe that by that time it started, most people had already canceled due to COVID-19.

Looking at the calendar, if people were back on March 8, they could have been incubating for a week (March 15) and then got tested towards the end of week 2 (March 22) so that we would see the results about now. The Quebec premier certainly advanced the early March Break hypothesis.

[tomh009]

Quebec's spring break was over on the 8th, well more than two weeks ago, so the vast bulk of people should have returned a long time ago, and the infections should have been apparent already last week or before.

Our break was later, but I have to believe that by that time it started, most people had already canceled due to COVID-19.

Looking at the calendar, if people were back on March 8, they could have been incubating for a week (March 15) and then got tested towards the end of week 2 (March 22) so that we would see the results about now. The Quebec premier certainly advanced the early March Break hypothesis.

Median incubation period is estimated to be five days, so even if everyone got infected on the very last day of the vacation, half of them should have become symptomatic by March 13. And it's hard to imagine that they would have waited two weeks for a test.

https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/27628...y-reported

Quebec is now doing only the quick test at the hospitals, not the central one, so there should not be much delay in the results.

[plam]

Looking at the calendar, if people were back on March 8, they could have been incubating for a week (March 15) and then got tested towards the end of week 2 (March 22) so that we would see the results about now. The Quebec premier certainly advanced the early March Break hypothesis.

Median incubation period is estimated to be five days, so even if everyone got infected on the very last day of the vacation, half of them should have become symptomatic by March 13. And it's hard to imagine that they would have waited two weeks for a test.

https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/27628...y-reported

Quebec is now doing only the quick test at the hospitals, not the central one, so there should not be much delay in the results.

OK, so March 13 is probably a good bet; everyone symptomatic should be showing by March 18. I see that around then they had 48 hour turnarounds on tests. So the most recent week's bump is strange. The recent Quebec growth rate has also apparently not been exponential:

https://twitter.com/fagstein/status/1243225370494722048
https://twitter.com/fagstein/status/1243...36/photo/1

I think we need a couple more days of data to tell for sure.

Something that is odd is the Quebec recovered number is 2 while the NZ recovered number (out of 280 cases) is 27. Perhaps different definitions.

[tomh009]

Median incubation period is estimated to be five days, so even if everyone got infected on the very last day of the vacation, half of them should have become symptomatic by March 13. And it's hard to imagine that they would have waited two weeks for a test.

https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/27628...y-reported

Quebec is now doing only the quick test at the hospitals, not the central one, so there should not be much delay in the results.

OK, so March 13 is probably a good bet; everyone symptomatic should be showing by March 18. I see that around then they had 48 hour turnarounds on tests. So the most recent week's bump is strange. The recent Quebec growth rate has also apparently not been exponential:

https://twitter.com/fagstein/status/1243225370494722048
https://twitter.com/fagstein/status/1243...36/photo/1

I think we need a couple more days of data to tell for sure.

Something that is odd is the Quebec recovered number is 2 while the NZ recovered number (out of 280 cases) is 27. Perhaps different definitions.

The last four days:
2020-03-23 ​​​ 628(+186%)
2020-03-24 ​​​ 1040(+66%)
2020-03-25 ​​​ 1339(+29%)
2020-03-26 ​​​ 1629(+22%)

The 23rd is where their process changed so a backlog was recorded. Number definitely not comparable.

Quebec City, Chaudiere, Monteregie and Estrie regions did not appear to clear their backlogs until the 24th, which accounts for maybe 150 cases. If we shift those to the 23rd we get this:
2020-03-23 ​​​ 778(+258%)
2020-03-24 ​​​ 1040(+34%)
2020-03-25 ​​​ 1339(+29%)
2020-03-26 ​​​ 1629(+22%)

This seems a bit more sensible, and the last three days are in the 20-30% range, which is definitely not good. They are running more tests (almost 20,000 in the last two days) but the positive test rate is fairly high at about 3%. But we'll know better after the weekend.

By comparison, Ontario has run only about 5,000 tests in those same two days. But I do believe all Ontario testing still needs to go through confirmation at the central lab.

[panamaniac]

Has there been any explanation as to why Ontario is having such difficulty in producing timely test results?

[tomh009]

As I understand it, it's simply a bandwidth issue.

The "quick tests" can be done in the field but their accuracy varies and is always less. The central labs can do the high-confidence test but need specialized equipment and trained staff, which is not easy to ramp up. I do believe this is a challenge all over the world.

[jgsz]

There are now 69 cases in Waterloo Region.

https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/healt...egion.aspx

[tomh009]

There are now 69 cases in Waterloo Region.

https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/healt...egion.aspx

Yes. An increase of 11 over Wednesday, or about 10% per day. Less bad than Ontario or Canada overall.

11 people hospitalized, one resolved.

[tomh009]

The 23rd is where their process changed so a backlog was recorded. Number definitely not comparable.

Quebec City, Chaudiere, Monteregie and Estrie regions did not appear to clear their backlogs until the 24th, which accounts for maybe 150 cases. If we shift those to the 23rd we get this:
2020-03-23 778(+258%)
2020-03-24 1040(+34%)
2020-03-25 1339(+29%)
2020-03-26 1629(+22%)

This seems a bit more sensible, and the last three days are in the 20-30% range, which is definitely not good. They are running more tests (almost 20,000 in the last two days) but the positive test rate is fairly high at about 3%. But we'll know better after the weekend.

Today's update to the Quebec series:
2020-03-23 778 (+258%)
2020-03-24 1040 (+34%)
2020-03-25 1339 (+29%)
2020-03-26 1629 (+22%)
2020-03-27 2021 (+24%)

Ontario added 135 cases (16%) today.

[tomh009]

Today's update to the Quebec series:
2020-03-23 778 (+258%)
2020-03-24 1040 (+34%)
2020-03-25 1339 (+29%)
2020-03-26 1629 (+22%)
2020-03-27 2021 (+24%)

Ontario added 135 cases (16%) today.

The Saturday update to the Quebec series:
2020-03-23 778 (+258%)
2020-03-24 1040 (+34%)
2020-03-25 1339 (+29%)
2020-03-26 1629 (+22%)
2020-03-27 2021 (+24%)
2020-03-28 2498 (+24%)

Ontario added 124 cases (12%) today. No reporting from the Waterloo Region on the weekend.

[tomh009]

The Saturday update to the Quebec series:
2020-03-23 778 (+258%)
2020-03-24 1040 (+34%)
2020-03-25 1339 (+29%)
2020-03-26 1629 (+22%)
2020-03-27 2021 (+24%)
2020-03-28 2498 (+24%)

Ontario added 124 cases (12%) today. No reporting from the Waterloo Region on the weekend.

The best day in a while for Quebec, at 13% (albeit still nearly 350 cases):
2020-03-23 778 (+258%)
2020-03-24 1040 (+34%)
2020-03-25 1339 (+29%)
2020-03-26 1629 (+22%)
2020-03-27 2021 (+24%)
2020-03-28 2498 (+24%)
2020-03-29 2840 (+13%)
That's pretty close to the average number of cases for the last six days, but improved as a growth rate.

212 new cases (19%) in Ontario added today. No reporting from the Waterloo Region on the weekend.

A total of about 23,000 tests completed in Canada in the last 24 hours, with roughly 2.2% positives. The backlog appears to be about 20,000, or a bit less than one day.

[jgsz]

There are 103 positive and presumptive cases in Waterloo Region. On Friday there were 69 cases.

https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/healt...egion.aspx

[MidTowner]

Suspected, confirmed COVID-19 patients filling roughly 1 in 4 Ontario ICU beds

Apparently here in Waterloo the figure is 40%, the highest in the province.

Of the 434 cases in ICU province wide, only 92 are confirmed. The number has increased from 138 to 434 from March 21 to March 28.