The COVID-19 pandemic

[tomh009]

Another 385 cases (confirmed + presumed) in Quebec today. It seems things are getting a bit out of hand there.

[danbrotherston]

Last week I read that Covid-19, like all viruses, are anti-urban.  They prey on large concentrations of people.  And that got me thinking about all kinds of nightmare scenarios of the repercussions.

Today I read an article in the New York Times that gave some hope for the future.  

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/upsho...e=Homepage

It is a good read.

COVID-19 isn't anti-urban or anti-density, it's anti-corrupt/incompetent government and also anti-travel and anti-individualism. This is why one of the most sprawling suburban nations in the world is almost certainly going to have the most severe outbreak. Humans are social creatures, regardless of whether we live in cities or suburbs, or even small towns, we socialize, that's the vector of transmission. The density only means that transportation and travel are easier (yes easier), which means it is harder to limit outbreaks. But when rural and suburban areas have access to transportation (as ineffective, wasteful, and frustrating as cars may be, they do provide transportation), then I doubt it makes a big difference.

Some of the most dense places on Earth, Japan, Singapore, South Korea have some of the smallest outbreak growth, because they have effective government, which people trust, and a strong cultural imparative to protecting the community.

I also disagree with the article, none of the things described, food delivery, teleworking, etc., are about density, they are about travel. Again, something cities make easier.

[tomh009]

Nationally 207 positive tests of 8900, or about 2.32%.

So what is the real number of people with it then ?

It's an excellent question, to which no one knows the real answer.

Given that the people being tested are either those exhibiting symptoms or otherwise in high-risk groups (travel etc), I think it's likely that the percentage of the general population that is infected is significantly less than 2.32%. However, even a 0.1% infection rate would translate to roughly 38,000 people and 1% to 380,000 people.

[panamaniac]

Another 385 cases (confirmed + presumed) in Quebec today. It seems things are getting a bit out of hand there.

Or they're getting their test results back more quickly.

[tomh009]

Another 385 cases (confirmed + presumed) in Quebec today. It seems things are getting a bit out of hand there.

Or they're getting their test results back more quickly.

They changed their methodology yesterday to not require verification of hospital tests at the central Quebec lab, that's why there was a big jump yesterday: they reported all the positive test results from hospitals that were waiting for central lab confirmation. Could it be that they cleared only half the backlog yesterday? It's possible but sounds unlikely.

But let's see what tomorrow brings, whether it's back to the usual number or 3-400 positives again. I don't see any obvious reason why Quebec should be that much worse than Ontario (nearly twice the cases but just over half the population).

[tomh009]

Gotta say I'm surprised by that.

I’m more surprised that LCBO, the Beer Store, and weed shops are “essential”.

Here are Legault's comments on why the SAQ remains open in Quebec.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21src1Wwr_c

[tomh009]

A lot of new cases -- 15 -- reported by the Waterloo Region since Friday, or five per day. However, 13 of the 15 are presumptive, so not yet confirmed by positive tests.

Of the 15 cases:

• Five from travel
  
• Two from close contact
  
• Six from community
  
• Two TBD
  

Currently eight of the 30 total cases are hospitalized.

Ontario reported a total of 78 cases this morning. Vast majority are either travel or close contact -- or still TBD.

Nationally 201 positives of the 9618 test results for the 24h until Sunday evening, or 2.09%.

Back to normal today (as no change in methodology) so there are two new cases reported in the region, both presumptive. Currently nine people hospitalized in the region.

85 new cases reported in Ontario.

Nationally 207 positive tests of 8900, or about 2.32%.

Waterloo Region now up to 58 cases, up 26 from yesterday. 22 of the 26 are presumptive. Most are "close contact", so only one of them is currently identified as a community transmission. In total there are now 25 confirmed cases and 23 presumptive ones. 11 people hospitalized.

A total of 100 new cases in Ontario for a total of 688.

Overall in Canada, about 18,500 new tests with 663 positives (a big hit from Quebec) for a positive test rate of 3.57%.

[jeffster]

I’m more surprised that LCBO, the Beer Store, and weed shops are “essential”.

Here are Legault's comments on why the SAQ remains open in Quebec.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21src1Wwr_c

Yeah, he nailed it. There is no valid reason to shut down these LCBO, the Beer Store and the Wine Shop.

[tomh009]

Another 385 cases (confirmed + presumed) in Quebec today. It seems things are getting a bit out of hand there.

Quebec now has 1100 new positives over the last three days. That's 35% of all positives in Canada to date. Quebec has nearly twice the cases of Ontario, in spite of roughly half the population and half the number of people tested.

What's the difference between Ontario and Quebec? Are the restrictions and guidelines not quite similar? Are people behaving differently?

[panamaniac]

Quebec kept its restaurants open longer, but there are also differences in the timing/origins of returning travellers. If the latter is a factor, Ontario might see a big jump next week, although one hopes not.

[ijmorlan]

I wonder what all this will do to other infections? I guess we’re a bit late for flu season but it seems to me that what we’re doing for COVID-19 should reduce infections from all contagions.

[danbrotherston]

I wonder what all this will do to other infections? I guess we’re a bit late for flu season but it seems to me that what we’re doing for COVID-19 should reduce infections from all contagions.

that has been my theory, but I’d be interested to see data on it.

[neonjoe]

Quebec is counting presumptive cases in their reported totals not just positive test cases. Thats why we saw the huge jump in that first day,

Our region is also now clouting presumptive cases in their tally (but they are listed with an asterisks).

[tomh009]

Back to normal today (as no change in methodology) so there are two new cases reported in the region, both presumptive. Currently nine people hospitalized in the region.

85 new cases reported in Ontario.

Nationally 207 positive tests of 8900, or about 2.32%.

Waterloo Region now up to 58 cases, up 26 from yesterday. 22 of the 26 are presumptive. Most are "close contact", so only one of them is currently identified as a community transmission. In total there are now 25 confirmed cases and 23 presumptive ones. 11 people hospitalized.

A total of 100 new cases in Ontario for a total of 688.

Overall in Canada, about 18,500 new tests with 663 positives (a big hit from Quebec) for a positive test rate of 3.57%.

170 new cases in Ontario today, for a total of 858, or about a 25% increase. Quebec has almost 300 new cases again.

No Waterloo Region update today.

Nationally 16,978 tests over the last 24 hours, which is a good level of testing compared to other countries (but we still need more). Unfortunately 534 new positives, or 3.15%. We are trending back up again.

[tomh009]

Quebec kept its restaurants open longer, but there are also differences in the timing/origins of returning travellers.  If the latter is a factor, Ontario might see a big jump next week, although one hopes not.

Quebec's spring break was over on the 8th, well more than two weeks ago, so the vast bulk of people should have returned a long time ago, and the infections should have been apparent already last week or before.

Our break was later, but I have to believe that by that time it started, most people had already canceled due to COVID-19.