The COVID-19 pandemic

[panamaniac]

Looks like we are now under a partial travel ban (frustratingly, the US is an exception, despite their completely uncontroled and unmonitored outbreak--the BC Heath Minister explicitly called this out as a problem...BC borders one of the hardest hit states).

Ontario is requesting Bars and Restaurants to shut down.

I'm pretty sure border closure to travelers from the US will be coming in a few days. My guess is they want to coordinate it with the US.

What they need to coordinate with the USA is ensuring that the travel ban does not prevent goods from crossing the border (what do you do with the truckers?).  Food, in particular, must be able to continue to be imported.

[tomh009]

I'm not sure whether 32 today is alarming or not. All sample sizes will be very small- only about eight thousand tests have been administered in Ontario. The actual number is much higher than 172, and it's been admitted that we don't know what it really is. Which makes sense, given that we're in a different phase now, not necessarily focused on tracing every single case, but keeping everyone more distant from one another to slow the spread.

Given that there is no sea change to the testing intensity or methodology, the percentage increase is still, I think, the best indicator as to whether the curve is flattening or not. Because we have no way of counting the undetected cases.

[Spokes]

Ontario is requesting Bars and Restaurants to shut down.

Unless they do take-out only. Expect to see the seating sections closed off in many restaurants and coffee shops.

Tim Hortons starting tomorrow

[jeffster]

Looks like we are now under a partial travel ban (frustratingly, the US is an exception, despite their completely uncontroled and unmonitored outbreak--the BC Heath Minister explicitly called this out as a problem...BC borders one of the hardest hit states).

Ontario is requesting Bars and Restaurants to shut down.

We sort of need commerce between these two countries. A ban on Americans entering and we're shit out of luck at getting so much of our food that truck drivers bring it.

[danbrotherston]

Looks like we are now under a partial travel ban (frustratingly, the US is an exception, despite their completely uncontroled and unmonitored outbreak--the BC Heath Minister explicitly called this out as a problem...BC borders one of the hardest hit states).

Ontario is requesting Bars and Restaurants to shut down.

We sort of need commerce between these two countries. A ban on Americans entering and we're shit out of luck at getting so much of our food that truck drivers bring it.

I am well aware of the level of trade with our largest trading partner, but that doesn't mean that we cannot prohibit all other travel...that's in fact exactly what we have done with every other country.

[MidTowner]

I'm not sure whether 32 today is alarming or not. All sample sizes will be very small- only about eight thousand tests have been administered in Ontario. The actual number is much higher than 172, and it's been admitted that we don't know what it really is. Which makes sense, given that we're in a different phase now, not necessarily focused on tracing every single case, but keeping everyone more distant from one another to slow the spread.

Given that there is no sea change to the testing intensity or methodology, the percentage increase is still, I think, the best indicator as to whether the curve is flattening or not. Because we have no way of counting the undetected cases.

There has, in fact, been a significant change to the methodology used to determine who is tested. In prior weeks, anyone who had traveled outside of the country with any level of symptoms would have been tested. That same person would not have been tested as of a few days ago- only those who are either health care workers, or will need medical treatment.

We are already missing many cases of infected, even those who might have in previous weeks been identified as "presumptive" cases before being tested. And that makes sense at this stage.

The number of deaths will be a reliable indicator, since it's not likely to be undercounted, and it gives both an indication of the number of cases broadly and whether we are flattening the curve enough. And that's still at 0 here in Ontario, thankfully.

[ac3r]

Doug Ford has declared a state of emergency across the entire province. This will include "the closure of restaurants and bars and prohibit gatherings of more than 50 people, including at indoor recreation centres, theatres and concert venues, until March 31".

Public health officials have also said that there is almost certainly community transmission happening, particularly in Toronto. Public health officials are also saying that we can expect to see COVID-19 cases rise exponentially, but we most likely won't see a huge spike in cases for at least two more weeks. They state that social distancing is going to help the community to lower cases, and that even with the inevitable spike in cases that will happen, it doesn't mean that tactic is not helping. Now, we just need to have everyone comply and avoid going out unless it's absolutely necessary.

They really need to close the border with the USA. Thousands of people cross daily for a myriad of reasons - travel, work, shopping etc - and with how chaotic and uncorrdinated their response efforts have been down there with their idiotic president and with the high number of cases and community transmission happening in American cities, these people are no doubt spreading the virus even further here. We can close the border to non-essential travel, allowing us to keep trade open.

[ijmorlan]

We sort of need commerce between these two countries. A ban on Americans entering and we're shit out of luck at getting so much of our food that truck drivers bring it.

I am well aware of the level of trade with our largest trading partner, but that doesn't mean that we cannot prohibit all other travel...that's in fact exactly what we have done with every other country.

Under normal circumstances, it would likely make sense to make an exception for the US, as a country similar in many ways, likely with similar levels of response to the situation. Under the current administration, however, we should be acting as if they are a tinpot dictatorship that can’t do anything right. As I’ve said before and as continues to be proven over and over again, there are only 2 kinds of Trump supporters: unindicted co-conspirators, and useful idiots.

[panamaniac]

We sort of need commerce between these two countries. A ban on Americans entering and we're shit out of luck at getting so much of our food that truck drivers bring it.

I am well aware of the level of trade with our largest trading partner, but that doesn't mean that we cannot prohibit all other travel...that's in fact exactly what we have done with every other country.

Actually, it means you can only do it as part of a negotiated agreement.   The GofC is walking on eggshells striving to ensure that a unilateral closure by the USA does not shut down our fresh food supply.

[danbrotherston]

I am well aware of the level of trade with our largest trading partner, but that doesn't mean that we cannot prohibit all other travel...that's in fact exactly what we have done with every other country.

Actually, it means you can only do it as part of a negotiated agreement.   The GofC is walking on eggshells striving to ensure that a unilateral closure by the USA does not shut down our fresh food supply.

We managed to reach that agreement with the rest of the world (or at least the rest of the G7).

@ijmorlan Yes, I agree, in theory the US should be similar to here, but it isn't, and it's not just Trump, plenty of GOPers are actively preaching people disobey medical professionals. It's scary. Few countries have had a worse response than the US.

[tomh009]

The encouraging thing about the nine cases in the region: they are almost all infections from travel, not community infections. So the virus may not be out of control yet in the region -- however, we won't really know for another week or two yet.

   

[taylortbb]

Actually, it means you can only do it as part of a negotiated agreement.   The GofC is walking on eggshells striving to ensure that a unilateral closure by the USA does not shut down our fresh food supply.

We managed to reach that agreement with the rest of the world (or at least the rest of the G7).

@ijmorlan Yes, I agree, in theory the US should be similar to here, but it isn't, and it's not just Trump, plenty of GOPers are actively preaching people disobey medical professionals. It's scary. Few countries have had a worse response than the US.

As you point out though, we're not dealing with a rational actor in the US. I would not put it past Trump to be like "You don't allow entry to US citizens? Well fuck you, total closure of Canada/US border, no movement of goods". Which would quickly create a massive humanitarian crisis due to a shortage in our fresh food supply. Would it be irrational? Yes. Would it inflict massive damage on the US too? Yes. But neither of those things have stopped any of Trump's previous trade wars.

When it comes to the rest of the G7 that's not an issue. We're not dependent on any of them, and they're not dependent on us. There will be no humanitarian crisis from UK citizens being unable to enter, even if they retaliated irrationally (which they probably wouldn't, because Boris is terrible but still not Trump).

[jeffster]

We sort of need commerce between these two countries. A ban on Americans entering and we're shit out of luck at getting so much of our food that truck drivers bring it.

I am well aware of the level of trade with our largest trading partner, but that doesn't mean that we cannot prohibit all other travel...that's in fact exactly what we have done with every other country.

Then you're also aware of who the President of the United States is. Trump can limit the borders to commerce only, if he wants. Let him make the next move, not Canada. Otherwise we will be in a world of hurt.

Trudeau, I believe, is being very smart in this decision. He knows we're dealing with an unstable dumb ass.

[MidTowner]

Hamilton has at least one confirmed case which can not be traced to someone traveling from out of the country. London has two known cases where the individuals were at work (one at the London Court House, one at London Health Sciences Centre) while contagious.

It would be naive to think that there are not at least some cases in the community here in Waterloo region. I'm personally glad for a lot of reasons that the provincial government is restricting things in stages, instead of moving right into the type of "lockdown" some places in Europe and now the States are in, but it's not too early to dramatically curtail the amount of interaction we all have with one another. It's definitely out there, and there are infections about to take place that will hopefully be prevented with our modified behaviour.

[tomh009]

Hamilton has at least one confirmed case which can not be traced to someone traveling from out of the country. London has two known cases where the individuals were at work (one at the London Court House, one at London Health Sciences Centre) while contagious.

It would be naive to think that there are not at least some cases in the community here in Waterloo region. I'm personally glad for a lot of reasons that the provincial government is restricting things in stages, instead of moving right into the type of "lockdown" some places in Europe and now the States are in, but it's not too early to dramatically curtail the amount of interaction we all have with one another. It's definitely out there, and there are infections about to take place that will hopefully be prevented with our modified behaviour.

You are absolutely correct: I expect there are some infected people out there in the community. But I still feel good that we have not yet run into any cases of community-infected people: that means the infected people are either self-isolating or that there are not very many of them (yet). Or both.