The COVID-19 pandemic

[jgsz]

I have read estimates that COVID-19 could make 30% to 70% of the population sick.  That's a scary number.  

How will COVID-19 impact the Region of Waterloo?   

Does the stock market crash mean the end of the building boom in KW?

Will local businesses be able to absorb the economic impact?  I assume there will be bankruptcies.

Will the hospitals be overwhelmed?

Will there be financial help for people who can't go to work?   

Will social norms change permanently?

What will be the social and financial costs if schools have to close for longer than expected?

Etc. etc. etc...

[robdrimmie]

Can we edit the title to not be all caps? We are in weird fucking days I agree but seeing all caps every time I come to the site isn't going to help anything.

[jgsz]

Can we edit the title to not be all caps? We are in weird fucking days I agree but seeing all caps every time I come to the site isn't going to help anything.

Done.

[jeffster]

I have read estimates that COVID-19 could make 30% to 70% of the population sick.  That's a scary number.  

How will COVID-19 impact the Region of Waterloo?   

Does the stock market crash mean the end of the building boom in KW?

Will local businesses be able to absorb the economic impact?  I assume there will be bankruptcies.

Will the hospitals be overwhelmed?

Will there be financial help for people who can't go to work?   

Will social norms change permanently?

What will be the social and financial costs if schools have to close for longer than expected?

Etc. etc. etc...

Personally I think it is being blown out of proportion. BUT, if it is 30-70%...

1) I imagine many people will be laid off at least temporarily. A short term spike in unemployment - perhaps 10-20% rate.
2) Not sure if that would happen. Perhaps a 6 month slow-down.
3) I'd imagine some local businesses to hurt -- though I do expect government help.
4) Only of that 30-70% comes true.
5) I imagine that unemployment rules might change a bit, possible interest freeze and debt repayment freeze.
6) They shouldn't, but we're a fear based society, not reality based.
7) Schools will need to do more online. It's a shame that media demonized online learning so bad because of their hatred for Ford and Conservatives, but now the reality is that this might be the ONLY way to finish school this year, at least high school. But if this more than the 2 weeks additional of high school missed, online will be mandatory for kids that want or need summer jobs or heading off to University.

On the last point, I believe that government needs re-address the online learning they wanted and perhaps force it. The teachers hate it, but the teachers can't teach now. Good mess.

Either way, as I mentioned, this covid-19 I believe is blown out of proportion. It's not going to kill more people than seasonal flu. It's not going to be life altering for younglings (which is so unusual, as you know). Humans have a unique at creating crisis where it doesn't exist that actually level of crisis.

[Bytor]

I have read estimates that COVID-19 could make 30% to 70% of the population sick.  That's a scary number.  
…
Will the hospitals be overwhelmed?

4) Only of that 30-70% comes true.

Even if only 10%.


There are about 73,000 hospital beds in Canada. 13% are filled by people who should be in a different facility, like long term care, but cannot be move because there is no room. I can't find the utilised capacity, but in the USA it's something like over all 70% in use at any given time, but I suspect we're higher because of that 13% so say 85% utilisation up here. So ~11k free beds at at any one time

If the infection rate is the lower 35% being talked about, that's still ~12.3M people. If 3.4% is the overall death rate, that's ~417k deaths. All of those people would be needing acute hospital care before they die. If Italy's numbers are diagnostic, then 10% of people who catch coronavirus need hospitalisation and the 3.4% who die are part of that. So it's really 1.23M people who will require an acute care bed.

If it drags on for 4 months (18 weeks) and those serious cases need a bed for 2 weeks before they recover (or die), we're still at 12x more people needing acute care than we have beds.

At a year long it's still ~4x too many sick people for the beds we have.

Of course, that assumes people getting sick at a steady rate, which is unlikely to happen.

Redo with 10% getting infected, that's still ~350k needing hospitalisation. Spread over a 4 month/18 week period that's still ~39k needing an acute care bed, or 3.6 sick people per available bed.

[urbd]

Not sure if this has been posted already, but here's an excellent reddit post on covid-19 in Canada. Must read:

PSA Regarding COVID-19: A Warning

[jeffster]

Not sure if this has been posted already, but here's an excellent reddit post on covid-19 in Canada. Must read:

PSA Regarding COVID-19: A Warning

Very good article, thanks for sharing.

[jeffster]

4) Only of that 30-70% comes true.

Even if only 10%.


There are about 73,000 hospital beds in Canada. 13% are filled by people who should be in a different facility, like long term care, but cannot be move because there is no room. I can't find the utilised capacity, but in the USA it's something like over all 70% in use at any given time, but I suspect we're higher because of that 13% so say 85% utilisation up here. So ~11k free beds at at any one time

If the infection rate is the lower 35% being talked about, that's still ~12.3M people. If 3.4% is the overall death rate, that's ~417k deaths. All of those people would be needing acute hospital care before they die. If Italy's numbers are diagnostic, then 10% of people who catch coronavirus need hospitalisation and the 3.4% who die are part of that. So it's really 1.23M people who will require an acute care bed.

If it drags on for 4 months (18 weeks) and those serious cases need a bed for 2 weeks before they recover (or die), we're still at 12x more people needing acute care than we have beds.

At a year long it's still ~4x too many sick people for the beds we have.

Of course, that assumes people getting sick at a steady rate, which is unlikely to happen.

Redo with 10% getting infected, that's still ~350k needing hospitalisation. Spread over a 4 month/18 week period that's still ~39k needing an acute care bed, or 3.6 sick people per available bed.

I am thinking at this point, we may have to be pro-active and take the same measures that both China and Italy have taken to avoid mass illness.

Not sure if shutting everything down for a few weeks is the best idea, but I don't know of any other way.

[tomh009]

Not sure if this has been posted already, but here's an excellent reddit post on covid-19 in Canada. Must read:

PSA Regarding COVID-19: A Warning

Very good article, thanks for sharing.

Yes ... but everyone should keep 14 days of food at home? Really? That's how we get the hoarding panic that we are seeing now.

[ijmorlan]

Very good article, thanks for sharing.

Yes ... but everyone should keep 14 days of food at home? Really? That's how we get the hoarding panic that we are seeing now.

Ideally, everybody would have a month’s worth of food in cans at all times. Normally it would be used at a normal rate and rotated; during an event like this one would draw down ones supply and replenish it after.

I’m a bit amused by the lack of toilet paper. Costco has been out the last couple of times I went. I’m still OK but I hope I’m able to get some before it becomes urgent.

[jeffster]

Very good article, thanks for sharing.

Yes ... but everyone should keep 14 days of food at home? Really? That's how we get the hoarding panic that we are seeing now.

14 days isn't really that much. I think most people already have close to that anyway. We're good for a while if shopping is difficult.

I am just surprised how quickly things are deteriorating. Never seen anything like this in my lifetime.

[tomh009]

There is no shortage of toilet paper in Canada. It's just been relocated from store shelves to people's basements.

Everyone should have a month's worth of canned food at home? Seriously? Apart from the fact that a month requires a lot of space for people in apartments, condos and small houses, it's also a lot of food to eat. Our "canned food" consumption is pretty much limited to canned tomatoes and coconut milk. I don't think we are unique in not eating a ton of canned food.

Are you also stocking up on milk powder? Bottled water? Candles? Hand-cranked radios?

[jeffster]

There is no shortage of toilet paper in Canada. It's just been relocated from store shelves to people's basements.

Everyone should have a month's worth of canned food at home? Seriously? Apart from the fact that a month requires a lot of space for people in apartments, condos and small houses, it's also a lot of food to eat. Our "canned food" consumption is pretty much limited to canned tomatoes and coconut milk. I don't think we are unique in not eating a ton of canned food.

Are you also stocking up on milk powder? Bottled water? Candles? Hand-cranked radios?

Those are all good ideas. You can't find many things though - pasta, rice, powdered milk, all that stuff is gone. Having radios on hand is a good idea, I have a 9-volt one, and I guess I could buy some more 9-volt batteries. We have gas for cooking, hopefully that stays on.

We don't eat lots of canned meats -- but you can get soup, stew, chilli, as well as fruits and roots.

[tomh009]

All right then ... but I think this really isn't the zombie apocalypse, and I don't expect a collapse of the western civilization.

But I've been wrong before.

[ijmorlan]

There is no shortage of toilet paper in Canada. It's just been relocated from store shelves to people's basements.

Everyone should have a month's worth of canned food at home? Seriously? Apart from the fact that a month requires a lot of space for people in apartments, condos and small houses, it's also a lot of food to eat. Our "canned food" consumption is pretty much limited to canned tomatoes and coconut milk. I don't think we are unique in not eating a ton of canned food.

Are you also stocking up on milk powder? Bottled water? Candles? Hand-cranked radios?

It’s what B-P (of Scouting fame) meant when he advised to “Be Prepared”.

Which I am not, by the way, although I do have a certain amount of non-perishable food.

The bottled water thing is interesting. If municipal water unexpectedly fails for a significant period of time over a wide area, our civilization is probably over. So I’m not sure how important a pallet of bottled water would really be, although obviously it wouldn’t be a bad thing to have.

It’s not about being able to survive in a post-apocalyptic wasteland; only a tiny fraction of people can do that, and the fraction that can wouldn’t be much changed by widespread preparation. We are absolutely dependent on the economies of scale associated with our modern economy. But being able to just not go out for a few weeks could be very helpful in certain types of emergencies.