Housing shortfall, costs and affordability

[tomh009]

And they're desperate enough that even though they are coming from middle class Indian society, coming here to line up hours in a line to put french fries into a cardboard sachet to max level rank up your PR hours (...)

Part-time work during studies--or even co-op placement in a qualifying technical job--won't count towards Canadian work experience for the PR application.

And when I went to university, there were certainly people working part-time, even fast food, to help fund their studies, so students looking for part-time work is not a new phenomenon.

[neonjoe]

The fact that McDonalds has a job fair means they have many open positions and the youth aren't applying for jobs at the locations directly with the Franchise.

Edit: this may be for the new location that they are building up by Costco Waterloo.

[plam]

If that's a non-sequitur you...um...what, even? Lol.

These unfortunate people were conned by people back in India, conned by John Tibbits and conned by Canada. Conestoga College is a bullshit PR mill on par with those who used to sell "degrees" like pharmaceutical assistant during daytime TV commercial breaks for Jerry Springer. 2022 saw 1 million immigrants dumped into Canada, the largest number seen in over half a century. We are importing so many people yet not ensuring anything else keeps up to support them, not that it should because those numbers are god damn absurd. 1 million people in 12 months.

It's god damn modern day slavery. The neoliberal Liberal and NDP coalition is desperate to import warm bodies they can make work the shittiest jobs because none of us want to anymore since the pay sucks. And they're desperate enough that even though they are coming from middle class Indian society, coming here to line up hours in a line to put french fries into a cardboard sachet to max level rank up your PR hours is superior than whatever goes on back in New Delhi.

And it fucks us the most, at the end of the day. As an Indigenous person I've seen this entire continent genocided, colonized and then basically raped for a couple centuries by modern day capitalists. Now they're doing it on a scale that is equal to industrial livestock farming. Reel them in with promises, use them and then make everyone live life like a battle royale deathmatch competing for whatever scraps are thrown our way. This is not in any shape or form sustainable. People whine about housing costs, how transit sucks, how we are eating up green space etc. Well that tends to happen when you let in hundreds upon hundreds of thousands of people a year and you keep voting for the same brain dead morons who perpetuate it.

Or just think about it this way: when is the last time you've seen hundreds of people camping in tents in public parks or wrapped around the block downtown Kitchener to flip burgers? Absolutely never. Something has changed, then, right?

There's a lot here but maybe just two points.

1. I was just reading about northern Maine and the problems they're having with having no people. Japan and rural China also. No immigration means that we'd be headed there too. I don't believe in perpetual growth, but I do know that having only old people is going to be tough.

2. I think Conestoga College is relatively legit. I'm sure it's not perfect. Maybe you mean the defunct Everest College or other private career colleges.

[nms]

Or just think about it this way: when is the last time you've seen hundreds of people camping in tents in public parks or wrapped around the block downtown Kitchener to flip burgers? Absolutely never. Something has changed, then, right?

Late 1929 to late-1939 was the last big period like that. By 1931, 22.3% of Canada's population was foreign born (this number was only *just* surpassed in the 2021 census when 23.0% were recorded as foreign born). Coincidentally, a rapid period of emigration occurred during from 1931 to 1941 when farming crashed out West and factories closed all over the place.  The 1930s were only bleak for those who lost their jobs or who were in really low-income/low-power jobs where there were always workers ready to step in if someone was fired.

As far as employment levels go, according to the 2021 census, the employment rate was 77% among recent immigrants, 81% among longer-term immigrants, and 84% among the Canadian born.  

As for international students and temporary foreign workers (again, per the 2021 census):

Temporary foreign workers and international students have become an integral part of the labour force
Canada is increasingly reliant on temporary foreign workers (TFWs) to fill labour shortage gaps. The number of TFWs (work permit holders on December 31 in each year) increased seven-fold from 111,000 in 2000 to 777,000 in 2021. The share of TFWs among all workers with T4 earnings rose from 2% in 2010 to 4% in 2019, and was particularly high in some of the lower-skilled sectors in 2019, such as agriculture (15%); accommodation and food services (10%); and administrative and support, waste management and remediation services (10%). TFWs were also overrepresented in some higher-skilled industries, such as professional, scientific, and technical services sector (6%); and information and cultural industries (5%).

Between 2000 and 2019, the number of international students with T4 earnings increased from 22,000 to 354,000, a result of both a higher number of international students and their rising labour force participation rate (from 18% to 50%). The increases were particularly large at the non-university postsecondary level, where the labour force participation rate rose from 7% to 58% and the number of participants rose from 3,000 to 173,000.

Transition to permanent residency
Temporary foreign workers and international students are transitioning to permanent residency in greater numbers. About 25% of TFWs who arrived in Canada in the late 2000s and early 2010s became permanent residents within five years after obtaining their first work permit, compared with the rate of 18% among those who arrived in the early 2000s. Lower-skilled TFWs tended to have higher rates of transition to permanent residency when compared with their higher-skilled counterparts, although the difference became small among those who arrived in the early 2010s.

One-third of international students who arrived in the late 2000s and early 2010s became permanent residents within 10 years of being in Canada. The transition rate reached 50% for international students at the graduate level and 60% for those with Canadian work experience.

In recent years, 40% to 60% of new economic immigrants were former TFWs or international students. In 2020, that number rose to 67% among principal applicants in the economic class. The increasing selection of economic immigrants from among temporary foreign workers—the two-step selection—is an important contributing factor for the improvement in the labour market outcomes of new immigrants in recent years.

[dtkvictim]

If that's a non-sequitur you...um...what, even? Lol.

I agree with the premise you brought up, but yes, I think it was a bit of a non-sequitur. I think the video can be taken as evidence of wage suppression and a point against the labour shortage. I do think our immigration rates, regardless of class (students, skilled labour, family reunion, etc.), is the single most controllable factor in our housing crisis but this isn't a video of people lining up for an open house, is it?

And it fucks us the most, at the end of the day. As an Indigenous person I've seen this entire continent genocided, colonized and then basically raped for a couple centuries by modern day capitalists. Now they're doing it on a scale that is equal to industrial livestock farming. Reel them in with promises, use them and then make everyone live life like a battle royale deathmatch competing for whatever scraps are thrown our way. This is not in any shape or form sustainable. People whine about housing costs, how transit sucks, how we are eating up green space etc. Well that tends to happen when you let in hundreds upon hundreds of thousands of people a year and you keep voting for the same brain dead morons who perpetuate it.

What, you don't think new immigrants care about the genocide and injustices committed against indigenous people? I'm sure, as Canadians, they are bound to feel responsible for their country's history and push for reconciliation and prosperity!

Or just think about it this way: when is the last time you've seen hundreds of people camping in tents in public parks or wrapped around the block downtown Kitchener to flip burgers? Absolutely never. Something has changed, then, right?

It's definitely not unexpected to appear in Kitchener though. I have another 10 such videos from Southern Ontario saved.

The fact that McDonalds has a job fair means they have many open positions and the youth aren't applying for jobs at the locations directly with the Franchise.

Edit: this may be for the new location that they are building up by Costco Waterloo.

I don't think this is true. A sibling of mine was hired at a McDonalds job fair 15 years ago; I think it's pretty standard for them. I remember going along, and I can tell you it didn't have lines with hundreds of people outside. I think plenty of Canadian born youth still apply, but there will be no upwards pressure on wages to keep up with cost of living with this many applicants, and Canadians will be hesitant to take jobs requiring them to live 15 to a house to make ends meet.

Not to mention I reject the idea that McDonalds is exclusively a part time supplementary income type job only for youths. I don't think anyone wants to work at McDonalds, but someone who needs to should be able to make ends meet.

2. I think Conestoga College is relatively legit. I'm sure it's not perfect. Maybe you mean the defunct Everest College or other private career colleges.

It's not so simple anymore. One of my closest friends recently finished his welding certificates at Conestoga, and he was very happy with the program and there is no reason to doubt its legitimacy, but there was also 0 international students in his welding classes (electives were different).

Programs that international students enroll in, like most at the downtown campus (which is exclusively for international students btw), are mostly no better than strip mall colleges. It's borderline criminal on the college's end. The diplomas/certificates/whatever that these students are receiving aren't good for any real jobs.

And somewhere between the two extremes: I've also hired and worked with multiple people from Conestoga's computer programming program. One was Canadian born and graduated over 10 years ago, and had a near university level of education. The other was an Indian international student graduate 2 years prior, and even accounting for the difference in years of experience it was clear that the level of education they received was very different. Despite being fond of the international student on a personal level, I wouldn't hire them again.

[tomh009]

And somewhere between the two extremes: I've also hired and worked with multiple people from Conestoga's computer programming program. One was Canadian born and graduated over 10 years ago, and had a near university level of education. The other was an Indian international student graduate 2 years prior, and even accounting for the difference in years of experience it was clear that the level of education they received was very different. Despite being fond of the international student on a personal level, I wouldn't hire them again.

I'm not super familiar with the Conestoga program, but my expectations are pretty low when it's a one-year "post-graduate diploma" in mobile development. Incoming students often have masters degrees and some work experience in their home countries, so I don't expect that most of them gain very much knowledge from this program. (Conestoga does have international students taking two- and three-year programs, too.)

In my view, this kind of program is clearly designed (intentionally!) as a pathway to PR for international software developers looking to relocate to Canada. Maybe the "mobile development" program is intended to ensure that the students can also become competent mobile developers, but that is surely secondary. I surely would not hire based on that program (and we don't), but within those programs there are also some excellent people worthy of employment, the challenge is in identifying them--as with any candidates, domestic or foreign.

Experience ... I will hire a smart person over an experienced one every day of the week and twice on Sundays. Smart people will learn quickly, but experience doesn't guarantee that the person will get any smarter.

[KevinL]

There's a Reddit thread discussing the Conestoga situation. It doesn't look pretty.

[tomh009]

There's a Reddit thread discussing the Conestoga situation. It doesn't look pretty.

As several commenters point out, the colleges' actions to get more international students have been driven by the provincial funding having been frozen since 2018. That means the government funding is effectively almost 20% lower than it was five years ago; all post-secondary institutions (and colleges in particular) turned to international student enrolment to close that funding gap.

[dtkvictim]

I'm not super familiar with the Conestoga program, but my expectations are pretty low when it's a  one-year "post-graduate diploma" in mobile development. Incoming students often have masters degrees and some work experience in their home countries, so I don't expect that most of them gain very much knowledge from this program. (Conestoga does have international students taking two- and three-year programs, too.)

In my view, this kind of program is clearly designed (intentionally!) as a pathway to PR for international software developers looking to relocate to Canada. Maybe the "mobile development" program is intended to ensure that the students can also become competent mobile developers, but that is surely secondary. I surely would not hire based on that program (and we don't), but within those programs there are also some excellent people worthy of employment, the challenge is in identifying them--as with any candidates, domestic or foreign.

Experience ... I will hire a smart person over an experienced one every day of the week and twice on Sundays. Smart people will learn quickly, but experience doesn't guarantee that the person will get any smarter.

I believe they both took the two year "Computer Programming" course. I would be very skeptical of anything shorter than that as being in the same ballpark as bootcamps. The international student did have development experience back in India actually, so you might still be correct that it was a pathway to PR for them, but I don't think that's a good thing for our domestic industry. I have never worked with a single Indian contractor (located in India) that was anything but a burden, and we allegedly used some of the most expensive and highest quality contractors available. Meanwhile, every Indian national that I've worked with located in the US, which has very strong filtering for Indians, has been extremely competent. If our colleges are meant as a pathway for skilled workers to enter the country, they need to actually act as proper filters for skill.

Though regarding hiring, yes it's much more nuanced than just looking at credentials. Hiring well is very difficult and I've made many mistakes... People with decades more experience doing it still make mistakes. But colleges muddying the waters makes it so much more difficult to even get started with applicants. I agree regarding smart vs. experience, but that doesn't rule out a need for experienced people at certain times (but I wasn't trying to make that argument anyways, I was just trying to compare the education the two got, while keeping in mind that they have different levels of experience influencing how I evaluate them).

As several commenters point out, the colleges' actions to get more international students have been driven by the provincial funding having been frozen since 2018. That means the government funding is effectively almost 20% lower than it was five years ago; all post-secondary institutions (and colleges in particular) turned to international student enrolment to close that funding gap.

I'm sure that's a factor, and I don't agree with freezing funding, but it's not a complete argument. This same situation is occurring at basically every college in Canada, not just in Ontario. And at the end of the day, if international students are causing societal/economic/whatever issues, the buck stops with the federal government issuing visas.

[tomh009]

I have never worked with a single Indian contractor (located in India) that was anything but a burden, and we allegedly used some of the most expensive and highest quality contractors available. Meanwhile, every Indian national that I've worked with located in the US, which has very strong filtering for Indians, has been extremely competent.

One of the big challenges with Indian outsourcing companies is that, as a rule, they have very high turnover: they hire new grads at low salaries and people job-hop between companies to get to better jobs. And, yes, this applies to the expensive ones, too. So, you might have people working on your project that have five years of experience, but it's at five different companies, and they never had time to learn anything in depth. Anyway, we're a bit off the topic of housing now ...

As for filtering, I agree with you conceptually but I don't know how we could make that happen in practice. The colleges have an incentive to fill available spaces, and the student visas are available as long as the program qualifies. Maybe the provincial government would need to limit the number of spaces in those programs, which would then cause the college to filter for the best students?

Ideally the colleges should be rewarded for people good enough to get (real) employment and qualify for a PR, and penalized for ones that go home, but I don't know that there is a practicable scheme that could be implemented for that.

[Bytor]

Or just think about it this way: when is the last time you've seen hundreds of people camping in tents in public parks or wrapped around the block downtown Kitchener to flip burgers? Absolutely never. Something has changed, then, right?

Late 1929 to late-1939 was the last big period like that. By 1931, 22.3% of Canada's population was foreign born (this number was only *just* surpassed in the 2021 census when 23.0% were recorded as foreign born). Coincidentally, a rapid period of emigration occurred during from 1931 to 1941 when farming crashed out West and factories closed all over the place.  The 1930s were only bleak for those who lost their jobs or who were in really low-income/low-power jobs where there were always workers ready to step in if someone was fired.

As far as employment levels go, according to the 2021 census, the employment rate was 77% among recent immigrants, 81% among longer-term immigrants, and 84% among the Canadian born.  

As for international students and temporary foreign workers (again, per the 2021 census):

Temporary foreign workers and international students have become an integral part of the labour force
Canada is increasingly reliant on temporary foreign workers (TFWs) to fill labour shortage gaps. The number of TFWs (work permit holders on December 31 in each year) increased seven-fold from 111,000 in 2000 to 777,000 in 2021. The share of TFWs among all workers with T4 earnings rose from 2% in 2010 to 4% in 2019, and was particularly high in some of the lower-skilled sectors in 2019, such as agriculture (15%); accommodation and food services (10%); and administrative and support, waste management and remediation services (10%). TFWs were also overrepresented in some higher-skilled industries, such as professional, scientific, and technical services sector (6%); and information and cultural industries (5%).

Between 2000 and 2019, the number of international students with T4 earnings increased from 22,000 to 354,000, a result of both a higher number of international students and their rising labour force participation rate (from 18% to 50%). The increases were particularly large at the non-university postsecondary level, where the labour force participation rate rose from 7% to 58% and the number of participants rose from 3,000 to 173,000.

Transition to permanent residency
Temporary foreign workers and international students are transitioning to permanent residency in greater numbers. About 25% of TFWs who arrived in Canada in the late 2000s and early 2010s became permanent residents within five years after obtaining their first work permit, compared with the rate of 18% among those who arrived in the early 2000s. Lower-skilled TFWs tended to have higher rates of transition to permanent residency when compared with their higher-skilled counterparts, although the difference became small among those who arrived in the early 2010s.

One-third of international students who arrived in the late 2000s and early 2010s became permanent residents within 10 years of being in Canada. The transition rate reached 50% for international students at the graduate level and 60% for those with Canadian work experience.

In recent years, 40% to 60% of new economic immigrants were former TFWs or international students. In 2020, that number rose to 67% among principal applicants in the economic class. The increasing selection of economic immigrants from among temporary foreign workers—the two-step selection—is an important contributing factor for the improvement in the labour market outcomes of new immigrants in recent years.

On the other hand, lower numbers of immigrants are citizens 10 years after arrival. 

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-6...15-eng.htm

"Among those in Canada for five years, for example, the rate fell continuously from 68.1% in 1996 to 43.0% in 2016. Among immigrants in Canada for nine years, the rate fell from 84.1% in 2006 to 73.4% in 2016."

[tomh009]

"Among those in Canada for five years, for example, the rate fell continuously from 68.1% in 1996 to 43.0% in 2016. Among immigrants in Canada for nine years, the rate fell from 84.1% in 2006 to 73.4% in 2016."

International students are unlikely to be able to do that within five years, so that will explain some of the drop in numbers.

• At least one year in a study program 
  
• Almost one year of work before you can apply for PR (more if you don't find a job immediately)
  
• 6-12 months for PR processing
  
• Two years of PR status required to apply
  
• 18 months for citizenship processing
  

That's six years plus ... I don't see how any of the students would be able to get citizenship within five years, even if they are super qualified and keen on staying.

[plam]

"Among those in Canada for five years, for example, the rate fell continuously from 68.1% in 1996 to 43.0% in 2016. Among immigrants in Canada for nine years, the rate fell from 84.1% in 2006 to 73.4% in 2016."

International students are unlikely to be able to do that within five years, so that will explain some of the drop in numbers.

• At least one year in a study program 
  
• Almost one year of work before you can apply for PR (more if you don't find a job immediately)
  
• 6-12 months for PR processing
  
• Two years of PR status required to apply
  
• 18 months for citizenship processing
  

That's six years plus ... I don't see how any of the students would be able to get citizenship within five years, even if they are super qualified and keen on staying.

There's always the "get in a relationship with a citizen" approach. (Fun fact: NZ allows a person to sponsor one person per lifetime.)

[ac3r]

The feds to throw just under half a billion at the housing crisis: https://www.reuters.com/markets/canada-g...023-12-21/

I'm sure this will go to good use!

[tomh009]

Meanwhile, the Ontario government is focused on converting farmland into suburbia, with no density requirements. And they seem to have completely dropped the idea of eliminating exclusionary zoning.