Housing shortfall, costs and affordability

[KaiserWilhelmsBust]

No, they benefitted from a time in life when housing was affordable.  Tell me how the guy who worked in a factory (And I dont mean Budds or Schnieders) back in the day benefitted from an exclusionary system yet managed to buy modest homes?  It was because you weren't taxed to death and your buying power of the dollar  was better.  Stop with the social injustice bs.

A major reason why new suburban housing was affordable was because it was subsidized by the future. We are all paying for it now with wild infrastructure costs eating up the budget. Imagine getting the rug pulled out on you multiple times from multiple angles at this point.

I look forward to the super loud moaning coming from that neighbourhood when their backyards finally start getting expropriated for ION phase 2.

Exactly! but won't someone please think of the deer ridge bootstrappers! (who bought their mcmansions for the price of a today's old, dumpy, starter home)

[plam]

No, they benefitted from a time in life when housing was affordable.  Tell me how the guy who worked in a factory (And I dont mean Budds or Schnieders) back in the day benefitted from an exclusionary system yet managed to buy modest homes?  It was because you weren't taxed to death and your buying power of the dollar  was better.  Stop with the social injustice bs.

It's certainly not taxes that have made house prices go up. It's our fellow citizens who keep on paying more and money for houses, aided by low interest rates. As KaiserWilhelmsBust points out, the average house price to average income ratio is way out of control and a lot higher than it used to be.

The modest salary working in a factory also used to be higher than it is now in terms of buying power. Rent and real estate are both more expensive. Food is probably cheaper.

[ZEBuilder]

By just looking at the minimum wage vs the cost of housing in Ontario you can see how absurd the cost really is.


2023 minimum wage: $15.50
2013 minimum wage: $10.25

2023 (January) average house cost: $798835
2013 average house cost: $391820

Minimum wage has gone up by 151% in 10 years meanwhile the cost of housing on average has gone up by 204%.

So if someone was working minimum wage in 2013 they would need to work for over 18 years to just pay for the average home, that's not even considering all of the other expenses like food, utilities etc. In 2023 that number jumps to 25 years. Obviously there's so many underlying reasons that cause the mess we're in now when it comes to housing affordability but NIMBYs like these people are half the problem. Take for example that Canada has the lowest housing stock of all the G7 countries (424 units per 1000 people) just to get to the average of 471 Canada needs to add over 1.8 million units. When you break it down based upon the 10 largest CMAs the worst for housing per 1000 people is Toronto with 360 per 1000 people, second on that list is KWC with 376 per 1000 people. So KWC is in a deficit of nearly 100 units per 1000 people in comparison to the G7 average. In comparison to Canada we need nearly 50 more units per 1000 people which means 32000 more units. For context Duke Tower has 494 units so we'd need to build 65 more to make up for the defecit KWC has to the rest of Canada which is completely insane. With our region being among the fastest growing CMAs in Canada (10.1%) (Oakville and Brampton while not their own CMAs are the only faster growing regions with a similar population) the number of units we need is only going to keep on growing. So all these NIMBYs just need to suck it up and deal with the fact that KWC is not a small city anymore otherwise they're just going to keep on screwing over the younger generation just like they've been doing by destroying other projects which would add much needed units (VPNA destroying the Mill and Queen development for example, the decrease in height of the buildings behind Block Line station)

Source for the housing stock information: https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/e...2021-.html

[mastermind]

By just looking at the minimum wage vs the cost of housing in Ontario you can see how absurd the cost really is.


2023 minimum wage: $15.50
2013 minimum wage: $10.25

2023 (January) average house cost: $798835
2013 average house cost: $391820

Minimum wage has gone up by 151% in 10 years meanwhile the cost of housing on average has gone up by 204%.

So if someone was working minimum wage in 2013 they would need to work for over 18 years to just pay for the average home, that's not even considering all of the other expenses like food, utilities etc. In 2023 that number jumps to 25 years. Obviously there's so many underlying reasons that cause the mess we're in now when it comes to housing affordability but NIMBYs like these people are half the problem. Take for example that Canada has the lowest housing stock of all the G7 countries (424 units per 1000 people) just to get to the average of 471 Canada needs to add over 1.8 million units. When you break it down based upon the 10 largest CMAs the worst for housing per 1000 people is Toronto with 360 per 1000 people, second on that list is KWC with 376 per 1000 people. So KWC is in a deficit of nearly 100 units per 1000 people in comparison to the G7 average. In comparison to Canada we need nearly 50 more units per 1000 people which means 32000 more units. For context Duke Tower has 494 units so we'd need to build 65 more to make up for the defecit KWC has to the rest of Canada which is completely insane. With our region being among the fastest growing CMAs in Canada (10.1%) (Oakville and Brampton while not their own CMAs are the only faster growing regions with a similar population) the number of units we need is only going to keep on growing. So all these NIMBYs just need to suck it up and deal with the fact that KWC is not a small city anymore otherwise they're just going to keep on screwing over the younger generation just like they've been doing by destroying other projects which would add much needed units (VPNA destroying the Mill and Queen development for example, the decrease in height of the buildings behind Block Line station)

Source for the housing stock information: https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/e...2021-.html

I agree with the numbers.  Everything I've read echoes what ZEBuilder said here, and if we really are that far behind in housing then maybe any unused giant parking lot is a great place for some.

[Joedelay Highhoe]

There's no way that Ontario can keep up with the demand for housing. Our province's greatest housing boom happened in the 70's. People who benefitted from that boom are fighting tooth and nail to prevent a similar housing boom now. Even if everyone agreed to Doug's target of 1.5 million homes in the next 10 years, nobody would agree on the steps necessary to reach that goal. We don't want to develop green spaces or farmland. We don't want to increase density. Developers are going to sit on their land and money until profit margins are better. We need a new housing boom and housing starts are declining.

I don't blame homeowners for their hard work, success, and sheer dumb luck, but I do blame those who fight against new developments like this. They are actively preventing younger generations from following the same path they took to success.

[Rainrider22]

I think we are all saying the same thing The buying power of your dollar was better amd homes were affordable. And those that want to call me names, that says enough to me about you..

I worked in a factory for 15 years, trust me, it wasn't good wages. Then owner of the company i worked for payed terribly for what he expected. But still, I could afford way more then than I can now in comparison.

[Joedelay Highhoe]

I think we are all saying the same thing  The buying power of your dollar was better amd homes were affordable.  And those that want to call me names,  that says enough to me about you..

I worked in a factory for 15 years, trust me,  it wasn't good wages.  Then owner of the company i worked for  payed terribly for what he expected.  But still,  I could afford way more then than I can now in comparison.

Yeah... I work in manufacturing now. I'm lucky enough to be part of the management team. I have a ton of responsibility and I am one of the company's top earners. Despite this I certainly couldn't afford a detached or semi-detached home in this region. I could maybe stretch my budget and pay 3K a month to buy a 1 bedroom condo in an older building, but honestly I'd be way better off getting a job south of the border. I figure I'll get evicted before I can find an affordable unit to buy, so most likely I'll be leaving this area instead of settling down here (to the great chagrin of my family/friends/employer).

All of the baby boomer factory workers at my plant own houses. Most of the younger people live with their parents and have no hope of ever moving out. I'm sure it was tough back then, but it's exponentially harder now.

Edit to add one thing: I am also way better-off than a young person graduating today. I was lucky. When I graduated in 2014, I could actually afford a 1 bedroom apartment. I paid-off $27K in student loans within 3 years. My little bro finished school in 2020 and he is relatively screwed! Can't find a crappy bachelor apartment for less than $1500, and there is so much competition in his field that he can't even get a decent paying job.

[bravado]

I think we are all saying the same thing  The buying power of your dollar was better amd homes were affordable.  And those that want to call me names,  that says enough to me about you..

I worked in a factory for 15 years, trust me,  it wasn't good wages.  Then owner of the company i worked for  payed terribly for what he expected.  But still,  I could afford way more then than I can now in comparison.

I just think it’s not the dollar’s fault. We have severely limited new higher density growth and the bill is coming due for low density builds at the same time, and we’re shocked that homes are unaffordable? The dollar + wages are only part of the problem in the macro. The micro happens in our planning departments and councils every day and generally dodges a lot of the blame.

(This doesn’t even begin to discuss the shocking waste and inability of the construction industry to become more efficient over time)

[tomh009]

Indeed. The buying power for many other things is significantly better than it was 20 years ago.

Zoning (for land availability) and inflexible building codes (for construction) are largely to blame for unreasonable housing costs. (The lack of affordable housing is another dimension, and is affected by housing prices in general as well as the lack of government funding for affordable housing construction.)

[mastermind]

(This doesn’t even begin to discuss the shocking waste and inability of the construction industry to become more efficient over time)

What are one or two things you think the construction industry could do to become less wasteful and more efficient

[bravado]

(This doesn’t even begin to discuss the shocking waste and inability of the construction industry to become more efficient over time)

What are one or two things you think the construction industry could do to become less wasteful and more efficient

I’m not an expert, I just know that process engineers in manufacturing have been driving remarkable efficiency gains for 70 years now - keeping prices low.

None of that professional introspection and investment applies in home building. Why do we still do it the same way for decades? An auto worker from the 70s wouldn’t recognize an auto plant today. 

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail...ity-puzzle

https://cmicglobal.com/resources/article...y-problem/

https://bfi.uchicago.edu/insight/finding...on-sector/

[plam]

What are one or two things you think the construction industry could do to become less wasteful and more efficient

I’m not an expert, I just know that process engineers in manufacturing have been driving remarkable efficiency gains for 70 years now - keeping prices low.

None of that professional introspection and investment applies in home building. Why do we still do it the same way for decades? An auto worker from the 70s wouldn’t recognize an auto plant today. 

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail...ity-puzzle

https://cmicglobal.com/resources/article...y-problem/

https://bfi.uchicago.edu/insight/finding...on-sector/

There are houses that are prefab, which probably helps. But probably it's because there's no real incentive to build houses cheaper when the house prices keep going up. (NZ complains about this problem but also the problem that house quality kind of sucks; I'd never heard people talking about warm and dry houses because that just goes without saying in most Canadian houses.)

[westwardloo]

What are one or two things you think the construction industry could do to become less wasteful and more efficient

I’m not an expert, I just know that process engineers in manufacturing have been driving remarkable efficiency gains for 70 years now - keeping prices low.

None of that professional introspection and investment applies in home building. Why do we still do it the same way for decades? An auto worker from the 70s wouldn’t recognize an auto plant today. 

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail...ity-puzzle

https://cmicglobal.com/resources/article...y-problem/

https://bfi.uchicago.edu/insight/finding...on-sector/

I get the point your making, but you could buy a brand new toyota corona for $1,950 in 1970.

[plam]

I’m not an expert, I just know that process engineers in manufacturing have been driving remarkable efficiency gains for 70 years now - keeping prices low.

None of that professional introspection and investment applies in home building. Why do we still do it the same way for decades? An auto worker from the 70s wouldn’t recognize an auto plant today. 

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail...ity-puzzle

https://cmicglobal.com/resources/article...y-problem/

https://bfi.uchicago.edu/insight/finding...on-sector/

I get the point your making, but you could buy a brand new toyota corona for $1,950 in 1970.

OK, that is $15k in 2023 dollars. It's a way worse car than you would get today in all possible respects. New cars are more expensive now but you also get what you're paying for.

[creative]

Why London is Filled with Empty Homes
https://www.alux.com/london-empty-homes/

A bit of a long read but worth it. I’m sure it’s relevant to Canada as well.