Housing shortfall, costs and affordability

[jwilliamson]

1500 units may be more that the City is prepared to contemplate;

Why we're in a housing crisis in a nutshell: council might be concerned that a project is going to provide too many homes.

[ac3r]

1500 units may be more that the City is prepared to contemplate;

Why we're in a housing crisis in a nutshell: council might be concerned that a project is going to provide too many homes.

The morons on council cancelled the Victoria and Park project that was going to add a few hundred. If they vote against this given the situation Canada is in, then they don't deserve to be on the council.

And sadly it's election time soon and many are going to keep their seats...

[ijmorlan]

1500 units may be more that the City is prepared to contemplate;

Why we're in a housing crisis in a nutshell: council might be concerned that a project is going to provide too many homes.

And right in an ideal location for accessing transit. If anything, they should go the other way and set an absolutely massive minimum density for new developments within some distance of LRT stops. There isn’t much space right next to LRT stops; it shouldn’t be wasted on low-traffic uses.

[jeffster]

You’d think if council held their same standard as Vic Park project this would also be rejected by default. 6 floors shorter yes but seems similar in size being 6 towers here. Also way outside the downtown core compared. Will be interesting to see their reaction to this although we might not have the neighbourhood associations coming for blood this time

Very different neighbourhoods (i.e. the residential component of Mill/Ottawa is lower middle/working class).  Proposal is literally at an ion station.  There may be issues (1500 units may be more that the City is prepared to contemplate; the affordable component seems weak and a public housing component would be a good addition), but I can't see neighbourhood complaints being decisive in this case.

1500 units is peanuts compared what is needed. I can't remember the exact number, but Kitchener is about 40,000+ units behind of what is needed. It would take 20 massive projects like this just to start to clear the backlog of what is needed.

[panamaniac]

Very different neighbourhoods (i.e. the residential component of Mill/Ottawa is lower middle/working class).  Proposal is literally at an ion station.  There may be issues (1500 units may be more that the City is prepared to contemplate; the affordable component seems weak and a public housing component would be a good addition), but I can't see neighbourhood complaints being decisive in this case.

1500 units is peanuts compared what is needed. I can't remember the exact number, but Kitchener is about 40,000+ units behind of what is needed. It would take 20 massive projects like this just to start to clear the backlog of what is needed.

Where did the 40,000+ number come from?   That seems high even for Kitchener CMA, let alone Kitchener.

[taylortbb]

1500 units is peanuts compared what is needed. I can't remember the exact number, but Kitchener is about 40,000+ units behind of what is needed. It would take 20 massive projects like this just to start to clear the backlog of what is needed.

Where did the 40,000+ number come from?   That seems high even for Kitchener CMA, let alone Kitchener.

I don't know where jeffster got the number, but it seems about right to me for the CMA. The Scotiabank study said that Canada needed about 2M more housing units to bring us up to the G7 average of housing units per capita. Waterloo Region is about 1.8% of the Canadian population, and 0.017 * 2M = 36,000.

[tomh009]

Supposing that we could snap our fingers and instantly create 36,000 housing units in the region ... is there really demand for that many? That's about 10 years' worth of residential construction at current pace. The existing affordability issues aside, that really seems a massive number for needed units.

[jordan2423]

Supposing that we could snap our fingers and instantly create 36,000 housing units in the region ... is there really demand for that many? That's about 10 years' worth of residential construction at current pace. The existing affordability issues aside, that really seems a massive number for needed units.

Yes there is 100% a demand. There are so many millennials, including myself, that know there would be an increase in demand if there is an increase in supply, which would bring the cost down. My situation is slightly different as I am in my mid-late 20's and work part-time while attending full-time professional school. I am hoping that the economy and housing crisis is at a better spot when i graduate in 1.5 years (2024).

[taylortbb]

Supposing that we could snap our fingers and instantly create 36,000 housing units in the region ... is there really demand for that many? That's about 10 years' worth of residential construction at current pace. The existing affordability issues aside, that really seems a massive number for needed units.

I think yes. The number of people that currently live with parents, roommates, etc, that would prefer not to I think easily totals 36,000. That's only 5% of our population.

Of course, this housing would also have to be cheaper than our current housing for that to work out. But housing here is currently very expensive. Just falling to say Tampa or Las Vegas prices would increase the number of households.

[panamaniac]

All this suggests that Canada's housing shortage is not going away any time soon.

[tomh009]

Supposing that we could snap our fingers and instantly create 36,000 housing units in the region ... is there really demand for that many? That's about 10 years' worth of residential construction at current pace. The existing affordability issues aside, that really seems a massive number for needed units.

I think yes. The number of people that currently live with parents, roommates, etc, that would prefer not to I think easily totals 36,000. That's only 5% of our population.

Of course, this housing would also have to be cheaper than our current housing for that to work out. But housing here is currently very expensive. Just falling to say Tampa or Las Vegas prices would increase the number of households.

A fair point. But I took the liberty of highlighting a key phrase: I think these kinds of scenarios are mostly more of a "want" than "must" have. Yes, it would be good to have housing options for that -- but at the current price levels I don't think they would be affordable anyway. I believe most people choose to have roommates more because of the cost than because of the lack of housing availability.

So, unless the federal and/or provincial governments find a solution to the housing affordability issues, I don't think the region needs to create another 36,000 units beyond the current pace.

[dtkvictim]

I think yes. The number of people that currently live with parents, roommates, etc, that would prefer not to I think easily totals 36,000. That's only 5% of our population.

Of course, this housing would also have to be cheaper than our current housing for that to work out. But housing here is currently very expensive. Just falling to say Tampa or Las Vegas prices would increase the number of households.

A fair point. But I took the liberty of highlighting a key phrase: I think these kinds of scenarios are mostly more of a "want" than "must" have. Yes, it would be good to have housing options for that -- but at the current price levels I don't think they would be affordable anyway. I believe most people choose to have roommates more because of the cost than because of the lack of housing availability.

So, unless the federal and/or provincial governments find a solution to the housing affordability issues, I don't think the region needs to create another 36,000 units beyond the current pace.

I'm confused, are you implying these are not the same thing?

[taylortbb]

Yes, it would be good to have housing options for that -- but at the current price levels I don't think they would be affordable anyway. I believe most people choose to have roommates more because of the cost than because of the lack of housing availability.

You're describing supply and demand. Demand for housing exceeds the supply, so prices are bid up until an sufficient numbers of purchasers are removed from the market.

We'll never get market housing below construction cost (in a growing city), but right now it's far above construction cost. The gap would evaporate if there was adequate supply, as buyers wouldn't be forced to bid up properties. Each step up in price is a few more people that can't afford their own place, and have to resort to roommates, which is the market equalizing supply and demand.

[tomh009]

A fair point. But I took the liberty of highlighting a key phrase: I think these kinds of scenarios are mostly more of a "want" than "must" have. Yes, it would be good to have housing options for that -- but at the current price levels I don't think they would be affordable anyway. I believe most people choose to have roommates more because of the cost than because of the lack of housing availability.

So, unless the federal and/or provincial governments find a solution to the housing affordability issues, I don't think the region needs to create another 36,000 units beyond the current pace.

I'm confused, are you implying these are not the same thing?

Yes. Single people living with roommates is not unusual in most countries (and I have done it, too, both during and after university). It doesn't mean you are actually homeless. You may not be able to afford a complete house/apartment, or you may simply choose to spend less by sharing one.

And even if you consider all people with roommates to need their own houses/apartments, even so, building 36,000 housing units would not solve the affordability issue. Even if the housing market cools down, construction costs are simply too high for many people.

[tomh009]

We'll never get market housing below construction cost (in a growing city), but right now it's far above construction cost.

Is it? Is there some data for this somewhere? Construction costs have gone up a LOT in the past five years. Building your own house (using a contractor) does not necessarily get you a finished house for much less than buying one from a builder, in my experience.