The COVID-19 pandemic

[ac3r]

I'm in favour of keeping the border closed for the rest of the summer.

I suspect we will. Right now we keep extending the closure 2-3 weeks at a time, but anyone with a head knows that things aren't going to change in 2-3 weeks. So, at some point in July, I'm certain they'll announce they're keeping it closed for another few weeks. Things are going from worse to catastrophic down there.

But then my question is: How do we keep ourselves safe from places like Mexico, Brazil, India or Russia? Cases there are skyrocketing - many times higher than what they are reporting, because those countries are faced with various challenges in regards to testing. There is a lack of good medical infrastructure; Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil is basically saying "#yolo it's just a flu bro, face it like a man"; India - while trying - is just such a chaotic and densely populated country with millions who live in slums and congregate in busy streets/markets, and then Russia, who is basically just trying to ignore it - obfuscation is the Russian way.

At some point, for our own sake, it seems like we're going to need some form of restrictions placed on these countries in addition to the USA.

[danbrotherston]

How about the rest of the pandemic.

It doesn’t need to be completely closed. How about all people coming into the country are tested at the border. Positive test means they go back. Negative means they spend 2 weeks in quarantine, with random inspections to make sure they are in their hotel room (I’m OK with not literally keeping them locked in a re-purposed jail).

I actually feel there should be a way to cross the border. But I think it needs to be a way that ensures there is no cross-border transmission, something like the above. And this needs to continue until the USA has a lower or equal per capita case rate to Canada.

One other concern: unofficial crossings are never closed. What are we doing about that?

I don't trust Americans to play by the rules. They have already been caught lying to illegally enter the country in Alberta. It would take a ton of resources to check on every border crosser, resources that would be better spent on almost anything else.

[ijmorlan]

I don't trust Americans to play by the rules. They have already been caught lying to illegally enter the country in Alberta. It would take a ton of resources to check on every border crosser, resources that would be better spent on almost anything else.

I think the total amount of traffic with the restrictions I suggested in place would be tiny. Essentially short trips would be impossible, because one would have to add 2 weeks to the duration. I’m thinking of family reunification and Canadians coming home.

Other policies could exist instead or together with a border quarantine. For example, we could allow only citizens and permanent residents to enter.

The bottom line is, I don’t see how we can tell people that they can’t come back to their family for the better part of a year. There are protocols for doing that safely.

[panamaniac]

How about the rest of the pandemic.

It doesn’t need to be completely closed. How about all people coming into the country are tested at the border. Positive test means they go back. Negative means they spend 2 weeks in quarantine, with random inspections to make sure they are in their hotel room (I’m OK with not literally keeping them locked in a re-purposed jail).

I actually feel there should be a way to cross the border. But I think it needs to be a way that ensures there is no cross-border transmission, something like the above. And this needs to continue until the USA has a lower or equal per capita case rate to Canada.

One other concern: unofficial crossings are never closed. What are we doing about that?

Quebec wants to give them citizenship! 

[panamaniac]

I don't trust Americans to play by the rules. They have already been caught lying to illegally enter the country in Alberta. It would take a ton of resources to check on every border crosser, resources that would be better spent on almost anything else.

I think the total amount of traffic with the restrictions I suggested in place would be tiny. Essentially short trips would be impossible, because one would have to add 2 weeks to the duration. I’m thinking of family reunification and Canadians coming home.

Other policies could exist instead or together with a border quarantine. For example, we could allow only citizens and permanent residents to enter.

The bottom line is, I don’t see how we can tell people that they can’t come back to their family for the better part of a year. There are protocols for doing that safely.

Weren't the rules relaxed the other week to facilitate family reunification?

[danbrotherston]

I don't trust Americans to play by the rules. They have already been caught lying to illegally enter the country in Alberta. It would take a ton of resources to check on every border crosser, resources that would be better spent on almost anything else.

I think the total amount of traffic with the restrictions I suggested in place would be tiny. Essentially short trips would be impossible, because one would have to add 2 weeks to the duration. I’m thinking of family reunification and Canadians coming home.

Other policies could exist instead or together with a border quarantine. For example, we could allow only citizens and permanent residents to enter.

The bottom line is, I don’t see how we can tell people that they can’t come back to their family for the better part of a year. There are protocols for doing that safely.

Again, you're trusting people not to break the rules...I have zero faith in Americans following any rules right now.

Canadian citizens have always been allowed to return home, AFAIK.

[panamaniac]

I think the total amount of traffic with the restrictions I suggested in place would be tiny. Essentially short trips would be impossible, because one would have to add 2 weeks to the duration. I’m thinking of family reunification and Canadians coming home.

Other policies could exist instead or together with a border quarantine. For example, we could allow only citizens and permanent residents to enter.

The bottom line is, I don’t see how we can tell people that they can’t come back to their family for the better part of a year. There are protocols for doing that safely.

Again, you're trusting people not to break the rules...I have zero faith in Americans following any rules right now.

Canadian citizens have always been allowed to return home, AFAIK.

Canadian citizens and permanent residents.

[ijmorlan]

Again, you're trusting people not to break the rules...I have zero faith in Americans following any rules right now.

Canadian citizens have always been allowed to return home, AFAIK.

Sorry, I had the impression there were people who were unable to return to their families. I agree it’s OK not to allow tourists.

That being said, I’m not proposing to trust people to follow the rules — when I talk about quarantine, it’s enforced. If the entrant is not in their hotel room when they’re inspected, they would be deported forthwith (i.e., as soon as they are found they are arrested, taken directly to a judge, and then taken back to the border).

I’m more concerned about crossings that are completely unauthorized. They seem to happen all the time normally, and, similar to Prohibition, would be expected to increase if the normal channels are closed.

[danbrotherston]

Again, you're trusting people not to break the rules...I have zero faith in Americans following any rules right now.

Canadian citizens have always been allowed to return home, AFAIK.

Sorry, I had the impression there were people who were unable to return to their families. I agree it’s OK not to allow tourists.

That being said, I’m not proposing to trust people to follow the rules — when I talk about quarantine, it’s enforced. If the entrant is not in their hotel room when they’re inspected, they would be deported forthwith (i.e., as soon as they are found they are arrested, taken directly to a judge, and then taken back to the border).

I’m more concerned about crossings that are completely unauthorized. They seem to happen all the time normally, and, similar to Prohibition, would be expected to increase if the normal channels are closed.

Even for a substantially reduced border traffic, you are talking about a massive amount of work to track all of these folks.

We already have permitted border crossing for a few reasons (land travel to Alaska for example) and we do not check that people are following these rules.

It is easier for commercial traffic, because corporations have something to lose, and less entitlement.

[tomh009]

Again, you're trusting people not to break the rules...I have zero faith in Americans following any rules right now.

Canadian citizens have always been allowed to return home, AFAIK.

Canadian citizens and permanent residents.

I don't know that citizens are necessarily any lower risk.

You could forbid tourism (from some countries?) but I don't know that we should restrict entry for people that have a valid visa. Do the quarantine to make sure they are not infectious, though.

[panamaniac]

Everyone coming in, with a few specific exceptions, is subject to quarantine, regardless of citizenship/residency status, no?

[tomh009]

Everyone coming in, with a few specific exceptions, is subject to quarantine, regardless of citizenship/residency status, no?

It's the way it should be. Have not checked the current rules recently, though.

[danbrotherston]

Everyone coming in, with a few specific exceptions, is subject to quarantine, regardless of citizenship/residency status, no?

I don't think it matters. I think everyone is, but there is no robust mechanism to ensure this is followed. Nor is it particularly feasible or desireable to do so at a large scale.

Canadian citizens may be the same risk for carrying COVID, but I feel they are a lower risk for failing to follow the rules.

The behaviour I have seen south of the border (which absolutely is present up here, but I think to a far lesser extent), shows a complete disregard for medical rules like this, and the attitude of those who oppose those rules make it clear they feel entitled to break any laws they don't agree with.

[tomh009]

Arguably non-citizens might obey the rules more, as they could be at the risk of being deported, whereas Canadian citizens would just get a slap on the wrist.

[tomh009]

Waterloo Region reported three new cases today. The new case increase is 0.2% of the total cases to date and 3.1% of the current active caseload. Active cases in the region are back down (by just one) to 96, and up 20 in the past seven days, from 76 to 96.

573  people reported tested in the region, with only a 0.5% positivity rate. Over the last seven days, we are averaging 848 tests per day and a very good 0.9b% positivity rate.

Ontario reported only 111 new cases, a very nice number, for a seven-day average of 174 new cases. 226 recoveries and only three deaths translate to a drop of 118 active cases, now down to 1,918, and a weekly total change of -363. A new record of 30,780 tests today for a 0.4% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging just 0.75% for the past seven days.

The new cases are 0.3% of the total and 5.8% of the number of active cases. New cases averaging 8.3% of actives over the past seven days.

The hospital population is down to 256 (-8) and the ICU population is at another new low of 61 (-8).