The COVID-19 pandemic

[jeffster]

So all community centres, arena's, pools, etc., will be closed in Kitchener, Cambridge, Waterloo and the townships until further notice.

I expect that cinema's, restaurants, fast-food and cafes to be closed before the end of next week, along with a ban on gatherings of over 10 people perhaps.

This is really really bad folks. Unsure what else to say. I imagine the next month or 2 is going to be really tough though.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the unemployment rate to spike to unseen levels -- like 20 or 30%.

I also believe the possibility of the US government collapsing completely, due to their financial health (its $22T debt).

We really need to look at what Italy is doing to figure out how we should do it. The have had a 3-week lock-down in a certain area, and only know is it stabilizing. I imagine for Canada, we should look at a 6 to 8 week lock-down. Nothing until May 1 or 14. I can't see any other way.

I imagine that all levels of government will have massive deficits this year. I imagine the banking industry will take a massive hit over this (if mandated by the government) - as I believe they will have to give interest and payment relief to their clients.

Either way, not good.

Take care my friends....remember to keep good hygiene. Eat healthy. And whiskey....lots of whiskey.

[panamaniac]

....

Take care my friends....remember to keep good hygiene. Eat healthy. And whiskey....lots of whiskey.

Ok to go with whisky instead?  

[tomh009]

....

Take care my friends....remember to keep good hygiene. Eat healthy. And whiskey....lots of whiskey.

Ok to go with whisky instead?  

I'm up for the no-e whisky!

[tomh009]

So all community centres, arena's, pools, etc., will be closed in Kitchener, Cambridge, Waterloo and the townships until further notice.

I expect that cinema's, restaurants, fast-food and cafes to be closed before the end of next week, along with a ban on gatherings of over 10 people perhaps.

This is really really bad folks. Unsure what else to say. I imagine the next month or 2 is going to be really tough though.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the unemployment rate to spike to unseen levels -- like 20 or 30%.

I also believe the possibility of the US government collapsing completely, due to their financial health (its $22T debt).

We really need to look at what Italy is doing to figure out how we should do it. The have had a 3-week lock-down in a certain area, and only know is it stabilizing. I imagine for Canada, we should look at a 6 to 8 week lock-down. Nothing until May 1 or 14. I can't see any other way.

We played the last hockey of the year this afternoon, got in just before the arena shutdown. Oh well, first-world problems indeed.

There are unlikely to be major layoffs in manufacturing, resources or in white-collar work. The ones that will suffer the most will be service jobs, particularly in bars and restaurants. But those sectors aren't big enough to get us to a 20%+ unemployment rate. Retail and food/accommodation services in total count for about 15% of Canadian jobs, but even those will not go to zero. I do expect to see 10%+ in the short term, though.

The US financial situation is ridiculous but as long as people are willing to pay for US treasury bonds at very low interest rates (and they are indeed) there will be no collapse.

Italy, France, Spain are not really comparable, nor is New York City. In all four the virus spread out of control before the government took any serious action. Here we are taking concrete actions before the virus starts spreading like wildfire. How much that will help still remains to be seen. though.

[tomh009]

Average daily increase in cases over the last 7 days, preceding 7 days and the 7 days before that (oldest period first), selected countries (from Johns Hopkins University data).

• Australia: 3% 16% 21%
  
• Canada: 15% 15% 22%
  
• China: 1% 0% 0%
  
• France: 41% 36% 22%
  
• Germany: 35% 35% 27%
  
• Iran: 56% 31% 11%
  
• Italy: 41% 23% 16%
  
• Japan: 8% 10% 6%
  
• Singapore: 3% 5% 6%
  
• South Korea: 30% 10% 2%
  
• Spain: -- 35% 42%
  
• Sweden: 46% 47% 26%
  
• Taiwan: 5% 2% 1%
  
• UK: 22% 34% 23%
  
• USA: -- 6% 75%
  

You can see China, South Korea and Taiwan got things under control, with much internal control.Taiwan's only new cases recently have been all travelers from abroad.

At the 15-20% range, where Australia and Canada have been, things are tense but for the most part still manageable. Once the daily rates climb into the 30% range, things start getting out of hand very quickly and the system can no longer cope. France, Germany, Italy (before the lockdown), Spain, Sweden are examples of this.

And then there are the explosive growth rates, such as Iran (56%/day in the last earliest sample period) and USA (75%/day in the last week). Simply not sustainable. The US is averaging 500+ new cases every day over the last five days, and 100+ of those in New York. What's the real number of cases?

[ijmorlan]

The US financial situation is ridiculous but as long as people are willing to pay for US treasury bonds at very low interest rates (and they are indeed) there will be no collapse.

And the Federal Reserve can buy as much as it wants, without limit. Doing too much of that would be inflationary, which has its own problems, but it is not possible for them to run out of money.

[embe]

...There are unlikely to be major layoffs in manufacturing, resources or in white-collar work....

Maybe not official layoffs, but the HR departments are probably juggling a whole lot of questions related to sick days, self-quarantine, company travel, etc. etc.  

With manufacturing, a plant that makes XYZ with parts from (well) the other X, Y and Z plants, if any one of those them shuts down or faces reduced labor (sick days  from parents looking after their kids for the 3X March break) there is definitely a ripple effect.

[ac3r]

Trudeau to announce international flight restrictions. International flights will all be directed to Montreal, Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver.

[KevinL]

If anyone wants to share resources, updates, and assistance, or discuss the local situation in general, a Facebook group has been created for K-W: https://www.facebook.com/groups/CareMongeringKW/

[MidTowner]

...
At the 15-20% range, where Australia and Canada have been, things are tense but for the most part still manageable. Once the daily rates climb into the 30% range, things start getting out of hand very quickly and the system can no longer cope. France, Germany, Italy (before the lockdown), Spain, Sweden are examples of this.

And then there are the explosive growth rates, such as Iran (56%/day in the last earliest sample period) and USA (75%/day in the last week). Simply not sustainable. The US is averaging 500+ new cases every day over the last five days, and 100+ of those in New York. What's the real number of cases?

Thanks for this, it's interesting to see the comparison between countries.

Not only is testing very narrow, though, testing protocols have changed in Ontario. The same individual who merited a test a week or two ago would not have a few days ago. There is effectively acknowledgement that there are many, many cases of the virus in Ontario that will not be captured in those numbers. The Public Health Officer in Ottawa estimated that there are likely 1000 or so cases in the community.

I'm not saying anything about whether more people should be tested or not, just that the relationship between confirmed cases and actual cases has likely changed over the past weeks, and so the growth rate may be a lot higher than shown in your chart. We can't know for sure what the curve we're climbing looks like.

But your conclusion is obviously correct: Italy's system is overwhelmed, ours is still manageable. The measures we take today and tomorrow will hopefully ensure is still is in a couple of weeks' time.

[danbrotherston]

Looks like we are now under a partial travel ban (frustratingly, the US is an exception, despite their completely uncontroled and unmonitored outbreak--the BC Heath Minister explicitly called this out as a problem...BC borders one of the hardest hit states).

Ontario is requesting Bars and Restaurants to shut down.

[tomh009]

Ontario is requesting Bars and Restaurants to shut down.

Unless they do take-out only. Expect to see the seating sections closed off in many restaurants and coffee shops.

[tomh009]

Not only is testing very narrow, though, testing protocols have changed in Ontario. The same individual who merited a test a week or two ago would not have a few days ago. There is effectively acknowledgement that there are many, many cases of the virus in Ontario that will not be captured in those numbers. The Public Health Officer in Ottawa estimated that there are likely 1000 or so cases in the community.

I'm not saying anything about whether more people should be tested or not, just that the relationship between confirmed cases and actual cases has likely changed over the past weeks, and so the growth rate may be a lot higher than shown in your chart. We can't know for sure what the curve we're climbing looks like.

But your conclusion is obviously correct: Italy's system is overwhelmed, ours is still manageable. The measures we take today and tomorrow will hopefully ensure is still is in a couple of weeks' time.

I think everyone would like to do more testing, it's a capacity issue: number of kits, number of people collecting tests, the lab capacity. I don't know where the bottleneck is currently, but I do expect the system is testing at max capacity.

There were 32 new confirmed cases in Ontario today. I think I read that 24 of those had traveled in the US.

Today's number of new cases was not comforting, but one day is a very small sample size, that's why I did it by week. Let's see how the rest of the week goes.

[MidTowner]

I think everyone would like to do more testing, it's a capacity issue: number of kits, number of people collecting tests, the lab capacity. I don't know where the bottleneck is currently, but I do expect the system is testing at max capacity.

There were 32 new confirmed cases in Ontario today. I think I read that 24 of those had traveled in the US.

Today's number of new cases was not comforting, but one day is a very small sample size, that's why I did it by week. Let's see how the rest of the week goes.

My understanding is that the number of kits is the issue, and the need to reserve them for cases where the result of the test will inform medical decisions- so not in the case of people with mild symptoms, even if they have traveled to hot spots.

I'm not sure whether 32 today is alarming or not. All sample sizes will be very small- only about eight thousand tests have been administered in Ontario. The actual number is much higher than 172, and it's been admitted that we don't know what it really is. Which makes sense, given that we're in a different phase now, not necessarily focused on tracing every single case, but keeping everyone more distant from one another to slow the spread.

[jamincan]

Looks like we are now under a partial travel ban (frustratingly, the US is an exception, despite their completely uncontroled and unmonitored outbreak--the BC Heath Minister explicitly called this out as a problem...BC borders one of the hardest hit states).

Ontario is requesting Bars and Restaurants to shut down.

I'm pretty sure border closure to travelers from the US will be coming in a few days. My guess is they want to coordinate it with the US.