The COVID-19 pandemic

[plam]

Incidentally, some NZ experts are saying that 1) NZ should delay Omicron as long as possible (boosters, kids, plus better masks) but also once it arrives the government should switch from suppression to mitigation. Though I don't really think anyone has tried harsh lockdowns for Omicron.

[jeffster]

Incidentally, some NZ experts are saying that 1) NZ should delay Omicron as long as possible (boosters, kids, plus better masks) but also once it arrives the government should switch from suppression to mitigation. Though I don't really think anyone has tried harsh lockdowns for Omicron.

To be honest, I don't think anyone has any good answers. No matter what way we handle it, we're shooting ourselves in the foot.

Boosters I don't think will make a huge difference when it comes to omicron infections, though it would help with hospitalizations, but good mask mandates, limited social contacts (that is, hanging out with family and friends), and hygiene would go a long way.

Places like Japan have done fairly well, all considering. But things like cleanliness are held in high regard over there, unlike Canada, where cleanliness and hygiene isn't even a second though, let alone first.

[danbrotherston]

Incidentally, some NZ experts are saying that 1) NZ should delay Omicron as long as possible (boosters, kids, plus better masks) but also once it arrives the government should switch from suppression to mitigation. Though I don't really think anyone has tried harsh lockdowns for Omicron.

To be honest, I don't think anyone has any good answers. No matter what way we handle it, we're shooting ourselves in the foot.

Boosters I don't think will make a huge difference when it comes to omicron infections, though it would help with hospitalizations, but good mask mandates, limited social contacts (that is, hanging out with family and friends), and hygiene would go a long way.

Places like Japan have done fairly well, all considering. But things like cleanliness are held in high regard over there, unlike Canada, where cleanliness and hygiene isn't even a second though, let alone first.

Except that we KNOW that COVID is almost never transmitted through fomites, so cleaning and hygiene are not effective tools in limiting it's spread.

Mask wearing is much more ubiquitous (and I suspect, significantly less often done wrong...I see noses all over the place now), but I don't know what other policies they have used.

As for the vaccine, the preliminary study that showed the booster was ineffective, has mostly been redacted. The booster is very effective at limiting severe infection, I haven't seen specific data on infections, but all through the pandemic we've seen that limiting severe disease also limits transmission (and of course it does, because if people are less sick for a shorter time they are less likely to spread the virus).

[tomh009]

Places like Japan have done fairly well, all considering. But things like cleanliness are held in high regard over there, unlike Canada, where cleanliness and hygiene isn't even a second though, let alone first.

Having spent rather a lot of time in Japan over the past years ... it's definitely a tidy place, people keep their properties clean and don't drop trash on the streets or scribble graffiti on the walls. But actual hygiene? It was not so much different, pre-COVID (haven't been there since COVID so don't know what it is like now), there was no disinfection. You would get a towel/towelette to clean your hands before eating at a restaurant, but that was really it. (But, as Dan says, this isn't really a significant infection path anyway.)

What is different, though, is the acceptance of masking, and the acceptance of distancing. Even before COVID, people would tend to keep their distance, hugs etc in public are rare. Also, a high degree of societal cohesion, and understanding the need to not infect others. On the other hand ... the public transport is often very busy.

Another difference is the small percentage of foreign-born residents. This results in fewer trips abroad, and fewer infections brought in. The borders were never locked as hard as NZ or China, but there were far fewer people arriving at airports than there have been in Canada. And no commercial traffic from a large neighbouring country!

They are being hit by Omicron now, but the relative numbers are quite low. At least for now.

[jeffster]

Places like Japan have done fairly well, all considering. But things like cleanliness are held in high regard over there, unlike Canada, where cleanliness and hygiene isn't even a second though, let alone first.

Having spent rather a lot of time in Japan over the past years ... it's definitely a tidy place, people keep their properties clean and don't drop trash on the streets or scribble graffiti on the walls. But actual hygiene? It was not so much different, pre-COVID (haven't been there since COVID so don't know what it is like now), there was no disinfection. You would get a towel/towelette to clean your hands before eating at a restaurant, but that was really it. (But, as Dan says, this isn't really a significant infection path anyway.)

What is different, though, is the acceptance of masking, and the acceptance of distancing.<b> Even before COVID, people would tend to keep their distance, hugs etc in public are rare. </b>Also, a high degree of societal cohesion, and understanding the need to not infect others. On the other hand ... the public transport is often very busy.

Another difference is the small percentage of foreign-born residents. This results in fewer trips abroad, and fewer infections brought in. The borders were never locked as hard as NZ or China, but there were far fewer people arriving at airports than there have been in Canada. And no commercial traffic from a large neighbouring country!

They are being hit by Omicron now, but the relative numbers are quite low. At least for now.

That part about the Japanese keeping their hands off of each other is very true. Not that I think it's excellent to have a reserved culture, but in this case, it's making a difference.

Their public transit is insanely business. But, it's kept insanely clean and social distancing and masking and hygiene are all held in high regard.

Lots we can learn from looking at other cultures.

As for places like NZ -- easy to lock down borders when you have no neighbours.

To add, almost off topic, but, rich nations need to figure out an effective way to get poor nations double vaccinated.

[plam]

Incidentally, some NZ experts are saying that 1) NZ should delay Omicron as long as possible (boosters, kids, plus better masks) but also once it arrives the government should switch from suppression to mitigation. Though I don't really think anyone has tried harsh lockdowns for Omicron.

To be honest, I don't think anyone has any good answers. No matter what way we handle it, we're shooting ourselves in the foot.

Boosters I don't think will make a huge difference when it comes to omicron infections, though it would help with hospitalizations, but good mask mandates, limited social contacts (that is, hanging out with family and friends), and hygiene would go a long way.

Places like Japan have done fairly well, all considering. But things like cleanliness are held in high regard over there, unlike Canada, where cleanliness and hygiene isn't even a second though, let alone first.

Boosters will help a bit according to the latest data. The 0% effective number for 2 doses wasn't correct. They won't help as much as they did for Delta, but it is more than nothing, and for a few weeks, maybe better at preventing COVID than the flu shot at preventing the flu.

We keep talking about fomites. I'm fairly convinced it is not about fomites and paying attention to fomites means diverting focus away from things like air purifiers.

Except that we KNOW that COVID is almost never transmitted through fomites, so cleaning and hygiene are not effective tools in limiting it's spread.

Mask wearing is much more ubiquitous (and I suspect, significantly less often done wrong...I see noses all over the place now), but I don't know what other policies they have used.

As for the vaccine, the preliminary study that showed the booster was ineffective, has mostly been redacted. The booster is very effective at limiting severe infection, I haven't seen specific data on infections, but all through the pandemic we've seen that limiting severe disease also limits transmission (and of course it does, because if people are less sick for a shorter time they are less likely to spread the virus).

Mostly agree, though I wouldn't say "of course"; I'd be more cautious about links between severe infection and being a superspreader. But there is some chance that it reduces both.

Having spent rather a lot of time in Japan over the past years ... it's definitely a tidy place, people keep their properties clean and don't drop trash on the streets or scribble graffiti on the walls. But actual hygiene? It was not so much different, pre-COVID (haven't been there since COVID so don't know what it is like now), there was no disinfection. You would get a towel/towelette to clean your hands before eating at a restaurant, but that was really it. (But, as Dan says, this isn't really a significant infection path anyway.)

What is different, though, is the acceptance of masking, and the acceptance of distancing. Even before COVID, people would tend to keep their distance, hugs etc in public are rare. Also, a high degree of societal cohesion, and understanding the need to not infect others. On the other hand ... the public transport is often very busy.

Another difference is the small percentage of foreign-born residents. This results in fewer trips abroad, and fewer infections brought in. The borders were never locked as hard as NZ or China, but there were far fewer people arriving at airports than there have been in Canada. And no commercial traffic from a large neighbouring country!

They are being hit by Omicron now, but the relative numbers are quite low. At least for now.

Makes sense to me. They have focussed on the 3Cs: closed spaces, crowded places, and close contact. Much more effective than hygiene theatre.

As for places like NZ -- easy to lock down borders when you have no neighbours.

To add, almost off topic, but, rich nations need to figure out an effective way to get poor nations double vaccinated.

Yes, vaccine equity is a big problem. Not sure what we can do as individuals except donating to UNICED.

NZ did depend on tourism quite a bit, but they made the call that they'd be screwed on that anyway whether they were open or not. (The UK also has no neighbours also.)

[ijmorlan]

(The UK also has no neighbours also.)

I think the Channel Tunnel pretty much makes this untrue. Unless you mean in the sense that there is no long, hard-to-monitor, land border. From that point of view the tunnel isn’t much different from an airplane route. But it’s also true the English Channel is much narrower that the distance from New Zealand to other places so I imagine it’s harder to monitor.

[tomh009]

(The UK also has no neighbours also.)

I think the Channel Tunnel pretty much makes this untrue. Unless you mean in the sense that there is no long, hard-to-monitor, land border. From that point of view the tunnel isn’t much different from an airplane route. But it’s also true the English Channel is much narrower that the distance from New Zealand to other places so I imagine it’s harder to monitor.

Probably more relevant is Irish border where there are essentially no customs checks as I recall.

[plam]

I think the Channel Tunnel pretty much makes this untrue. Unless you mean in the sense that there is no long, hard-to-monitor, land border. From that point of view the tunnel isn’t much different from an airplane route. But it’s also true the English Channel is much narrower that the distance from New Zealand to other places so I imagine it’s harder to monitor.

Probably more relevant is Irish border where there are essentially no customs checks as I recall.

The Irish border is a huge concern with Brexit, I understand.

I don't think people swimming across the Channel are making a huge difference in the number of COVID cases. And I think there is now border formalities going from the UK to France in the tunnel, again because of Brexit.

To be fair, the UK is a lot more of a transport hub than NZ. But Boris Johnson also has been terrible, even worse than Ford in most (though not all) ways.

[jeffster]

The numbers are out:

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Durham Region Health Department 741.7

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 602.4

• Peel Public Health 598.8
• Halton Region Public Health 564.4
• Lambton Public Health 553.6
• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 532.4
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 526.7
• Niagara Region Public Health 516.0
• York Region Public Health 511.2
• Public Health Sudbury & Districts 479.8
• Eastern Ontario Health Unit 478.2
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 466.5
• Brant County Health Unit 456.8
• Haldimand-Norfolk Health Unit 447.9
• Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit 429.6
• Toronto Public Health 421.8
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 399.4
• Middlesex-London Health Unit 399.0
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 331.8
• Northwestern Health Unit 329.6
• Peterborough Public Health 319.6
• Southwestern Public Health 317.7
• Hastings Prince Edward Public Health 314.6
• Ottawa Public Health 310.1
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 309.1
• Algoma Public Health 308.5
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 283.5
• Porcupine Health Unit 273.2
• Timiskaming Health Unit 260.0
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 216.6
• Grey Bruce Health Unit 216.6
• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 212.0
• Huron Perth Public Health 203.2
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 198.1

• TOTAL ONTARIO 459.6

[danbrotherston]

I don't think the physical border is a big deal, the US/Canada border is very high security.

What matters is the pattern of travel. How impactful it is to limit travel.

[ac3r]

Health Canada approves Pfizer's COVID-19 therapeutic: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/health-...-1.6317505

[tomh009]

I don't think the physical border is a big deal, the US/Canada border is very high security.

What matters is the pattern of travel.  How impactful it is to limit travel.

High security in some ways. But commercial traffic was neither restricted nor tested.

[danbrotherston]

I don't think the physical border is a big deal, the US/Canada border is very high security.

What matters is the pattern of travel.  How impactful it is to limit travel.

High security in some ways. But commercial traffic was neither restricted nor tested.

Yes, my point about high security was that there is no unchecked border crossing. There is no technical reason that we could not implement any policy we want for border crossing.

[jeffster]

Health Canada approves Pfizer's COVID-19 therapeutic: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/health-...-1.6317505

That's terrific news. As the article said "It's a game changer." It certainly is, and it might end up being our way out of this pandemic.