The COVID-19 pandemic

[jeffster]

I think the Omicron variant is going to end up wiping out this disease.

This is a mild variant, by all accounts. The vaccines aren't useful at protecting against infection. They are useful at preventing hospitalizations, but that might be a moot point.

I do expect the numbers to get really high, but I think we need to suck up this one.  Get your booster if you qualify, for most, that will be in the new year.

This is frustrating.

These things you say, are either not known, or not true.

Vaccines are absolutely useful for preventing infection. And it is not known if Omicron is mild, but all the preliminary data showing could be mild still shows it is not mild enough to not result in serious impacts on our healthcare system.

Dan, the vaccine does 0 to prevent infection. There are literally hundreds of thousands of vaccinated people walking around infected and not knowing it. They walk around like a confident lion thinking they're doing everyone a favour by being vaccinated, but end up getting others sick (vaccinated or not). At this point, almost 2/3 of cases are from vaccinated or partially vaccinated people.

The vaccine, if you can call it that, is only good at reducing the likelihood of serious illness or hospitalization. But if you actually think your vaccination status protects others -- newsflash -- it doesn't.

[danbrotherston]

This is frustrating.

These things you say, are either not known, or not true.

Vaccines are absolutely useful for preventing infection. And it is not known if Omicron is mild, but all the preliminary data showing could be mild still shows it is not mild enough to not result in serious impacts on our healthcare system.

Dan, the vaccine does 0 to prevent infection. There are literally hundreds of thousands of vaccinated people walking around infected and not knowing it. They walk around like a confident lion thinking they're doing everyone a favour by being vaccinated, but end up getting others sick (vaccinated or not). At this point, almost 2/3 of cases are from vaccinated or partially vaccinated people.

The vaccine, if you can call it that, is only good at reducing the likelihood of serious illness or hospitalization. But if you actually think your vaccination status protects others -- newsflash -- it doesn't.

You are wrong, and at this point, you are explicitly spreading COVID missinformation, and I'd like a mod to step in here.

[robdrimmie]

Dan, the vaccine does 0 to prevent infection. There are literally hundreds of thousands of vaccinated people walking around infected and not knowing it. They walk around like a confident lion thinking they're doing everyone a favour by being vaccinated, but end up getting others sick (vaccinated or not). At this point, almost 2/3 of cases are from vaccinated or partially vaccinated people.

The vaccine, if you can call it that, is only good at reducing the likelihood of serious illness or hospitalization. But if you actually think your vaccination status protects others -- newsflash -- it doesn't.

From one google search: https://www.google.com/search?client=saf...8&oe=UTF-8

Multiple studies from the United States and other countries have demonstrated that a two-dose COVID-19 mRNA vaccination series is effective against SARS-CoV-2 infection

People who are fully vaccinated against covid-19 are far less likely to infect others, despite the arrival of the delta variant,

Claim: The COVID-19 vaccine doesn't stop virus spread, so it can't protect others
Claimed by: Social media
Fact check by USA Today: False

Now, you might be referring to the fact that that preventative effect drops off after three months, information which is also available in that trivially easy google search:

The study shows that people who become infected with the Delta variant are less likely to pass the virus to their close contacts if they have already had a COVID-19 vaccine than if they haven’t1. But that protective effect is relatively small, and dwindles alarmingly at three months after the receipt of the second shot.

But that article also includes:

But studies also suggest that vaccinated people are less likely to spread the virus if they subsequently catch Delta: their levels of nasal virus drop faster than do those of unvaccinated infected people, and their nasal swabs contain smaller amounts of infectious virus3,4.

Yes, Omicron is behaving differently and yes the impact of it is still being studied but being protected from every other variant is a hell of a lot more than doing nothing for infection.

[ijmorlan]

Dan, the vaccine does 0 to prevent infection.

Again with this number 0 which I’m pretty sure is off by an infinite number of orders of magnitude.

[Bjays93]

0 is in fact a very wrong number.

However vaccine protection from omicron infection appears to be abysmal at this point and seeing how entire teams of fully vaccinated people are getting infected, I'm skeptical that even Pfizer claiming 30% effective might be too high. 

That is of course my own opinion based on anecdotal evidence just to be clear.

[ac3r]

While it seems like most people in the West appear to have this belief that South Africans don't know what they're talking about and we should not listen to them, they are once again stating that they are optimistic regarding omicron as cases are beginning to already peak.

South Africa optimistic as Omicron case numbers pass peak: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/3db59...134275da60

[plam]

I still think it's too early to say. UK is finding no evidence to support that Omicron is less severe than Delta (and that it evades immunity from past infection or two doses). https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232698/m...n-england/ I would wait another week before being more optimistic.

[tomh009]

I still think it's too early to say. UK is finding no evidence to support that Omicron is less severe than Delta (and that it evades immunity from past infection or two doses). https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232698/m...n-england/ I would wait another week before being more optimistic.

Well, I'd say Imperial College in the UK, in particular, is finding no evidence. But what is true is that there is no clear consensus on this yet, it's taking longer than I expected. I think the initial fears of it causing a more severe form of COVID-19 have not come to pass, but whether it's similar severity to Delta or somewhat less is still to be determined.

[Bjays93]

While it seems like most people in the West appear to have this belief that South Africans don't know what they're talking about and we should not listen to them, they are once again stating that they are optimistic regarding omicron as cases are beginning to already peak.

South Africa optimistic as Omicron case numbers pass peak: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/3db59...134275da60

I dont think its this as much as south africa is in a completely different place and situation than us over here. Low vaccination rates and most people have likely already caught covid once, that's a completely different type of immunity against covid than what we have over here with mostly vaccinated and very few who've been sick. 

How the virus affects these different settings is what remains unknown at this point. I don't doubt that it is in fact more mild in south Africa however.

[danbrotherston]

So it appears I did not win the COVID testing lottery from TestFinders, does anyone know if/when LCBO or other outlets in the region will have test kits?

[jeffster]

Yesterdays 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 472.9
• Algoma Public Health 165.2
• Timiskaming Health Unit 143.8
• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 143.6
• Hastings Prince Edward Public Health 126.4
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 123.6
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 120.4
• Public Health Sudbury & Districts 114.6
• Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit 113.4

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 85.4

• Brant County Health Unit 73.5
• Grey Bruce Health Unit 67.1
• Peel Public Health 55.1
• Porcupine Health Unit 49.1
• Eastern Ontario Health Unit 48.4
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 43.4
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 38.0
• Peterborough Public Health 29.1
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 27.0
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 26.7

• TOTAL ONTARIO 90.2

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 480.0
• Algoma Public Health 159.9
• Timiskaming Health Unit 153.0
• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 137.7
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 136.4
• Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit 127.9
• Halton Region Public Health 127.9
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 125.3
• Hastings Prince Edward Public Health 122.3
• Public Health Sudbury & Districts 120.1
• Ottawa Public Health 114.4

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 95.0

• Brant County Health Unit 81.8
• Grey Bruce Health Unit 72.4
• Peel Public Health 64.0
• Eastern Ontario Health Unit 60.8
• Porcupine Health Unit 49.1
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 43.4
• Peterborough Public Health 36.5
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 35.9
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 34.0
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 28.5

• TOTAL ONTARIO 101.6

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 483.7
• Timiskaming Health Unit 165.2
• Halton Region Public Health 159.1
• Algoma Public Health 148.6
• Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit 143.3
• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 140.8
• Hastings Prince Edward Public Health 138.3
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 137.3
• Ottawa Public Health 136.8
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 134.0

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 104.6

• Grey Bruce Health Unit 87.1
• Huron Perth Public Health 85.9
• Eastern Ontario Health Unit 83.8
• Peel Public Health 77.4
• Porcupine Health Unit 73.1
• Peterborough Public Health 55.4
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 50.8
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 34.7
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 34.1
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 30.1

• TOTAL ONTARIO 119.7

Today Ontario reported its highest Covid-19 numbers since April, at 4,177. Of that, 2,977 (71.2%) were fully vaccinated (2 or more doses), and 142 (3.4%) were partially vaccinated and 905 (21.7%) were unvaccinated.

Vaccination status in Ontario (of those eligible):

• Fully vaccinated individuals 80.6% (including 13.1% with 3 shots)
• Partially vaccinated individuals 5.2%
• Unvaccinated individuals 14.2%

[jeffster]

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 478.1
• Halton Region Public Health 185.8
• Hastings Prince Edward Public Health 154.9
• Toronto Public Health 153.6
• Timiskaming Health Unit 153.0
• Ottawa Public Health 151.7
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 149.6
• Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit 145.8
• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 144.1
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 143.0

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 117.6

• Grey Bruce Health Unit 104.2
• Eastern Ontario Health Unit 98.2
• Peel Public Health 95.6
• Huron Perth Public Health 80.9
• Peterborough Public Health 70.3
• Porcupine Health Unit 69.5
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 61.4
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 42.3
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 33.3
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 32.4

• TOTAL ONTARIO 134.8

[ijmorlan]

Just sharing my 3rd dose experience: I went to the Regional booking site yesterday. They have a neat queuing feature so rather than the site just slowing down, it puts people in a queue and sends them periodic updates on their estimated time remaining. Unfortunately, if one reaches the head of the queue and misses a fairly short window, one has to start over. I kept getting distracted so missed my chance several times. As a result I didn’t book until late afternoon and my appointment will be January 3. On the plus side, that means they're booking tons of appointments. I'll be interested to see the statistics on uptake.

On a related note, I just don't see how we can continue our “be nice” policy of giving people the option of taking expensive cure rather than cheap prevention for Covid. We just don’t have the nursing staff for it. There is a simple way of massively reducing our medical staff shortage: the treatment for Covid is the vaccine. Period (except medical counterindications). No vaccine, no post-infection treatment other than minimal palliative. We don’t give people the choice of going for the gold-plated option in other areas of medicine: they get what the system says they get. I’m just glad I don’t have to make this decision (or pretend publicly that it's unavoidable). Maybe I’m wrong; I don’t know, but I’ve heard bad things about Omicron’s transmissibility.