The COVID-19 pandemic

[tomh009]

THURSDAY 2021-06-03

Waterloo Region reported 47 new cases for today (14.9% of the active cases) and none more for yesterday for 31; 265 new cases for the week (-15 from yesterday, -13 from last week), averaging 10.6% of active cases. 322 active cases, -90 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

6,365 doses of vaccine administered with a seven-day average of 5,220. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2021-06-20 (-1 day). This date is now trailing the provincial one by 15 days (-2 days).

Ontario reported 870 new cases today with a seven-day average of 940 (-38). 1,563 recoveries and 10 deaths translated to a decrease of 703 active cases and a new total of 9,961, below 10,000 for the first time since November. -6,580 active cases for the week -- a 40% drop! -- and 104 deaths (15 per day). 34,277 tests with a positivity rate of 2.54%. The positivity rate is averaging 3.35% for the past seven days, compared to 5.23% for the preceding seven.

New case variants reported today:

• Alpha (B.1.1.7): 914
  
• Beta (B.1.351): 2
  
• Gamma (P.1): 10
  

546 patients in ICU (-30 today, -104 for the week). Total hospital population of 729 (-343 for the week). 75% of the remaining hospital patients are in the ICU ...

150,884 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 137,472. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-06 (+0 day).

• 55 cases in Niagara: 12.3 per 100K
  
• 167 cases in Peel: 12.1 per 100K
  
• 29 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 10.7 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Brant: 10.3 per 100K
  
• 45 cases in Hamilton: 7.8 per 100K
  
• 225 cases in Toronto: 7.7 per 100K
  
• 44 cases in Durham: 6.8 per 100K
  
• 33 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 6.1 per 100K
  
• 37 cases in Waterloo: 6.0 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 22 cases in Middlesex-London: 5.4 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Windsor-Essex: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 43 cases in Ottawa: 4.3 per 100K
  
• 18 cases in Halton: 3.3 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Huron Perth: 3.1 per 100K
  
• 28 cases in York: 2.5 per 100K
  

[ac3r]

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-06-04 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Peel	169	12.2	231	16.7	-49%
Durham	69	10.7	70	10.8	-47%
Hamilton	59	10.2	61	10.6	-18%
Toronto	214	7.3	281	9.6	-44%
Brant	7	5.1	12	8.7	-23%
Middlesex-London	24	5.9	32	7.9	-42%
York	31	2.8	82	7.4	-62%
Niagara	22	4.9	32	7.0	-29%
Waterloo	56	9.1	43	7.0	-15%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	17	6.3	19	6.9	-28%
Halton	33	6.0	35	6.3	-56%
Windsor-Essex	17	4.4	24	6.2	-43%
Ottawa	52	5.2	58	5.9	-31%
Simcoe-Muskoka	23	4.3	30	5.5	-25%
Huron Perth	3	3.1	5	5.5	-11%
Thunder Bay	16	10.7	7	4.5	+83%
Lambton	9	6.9	5	3.8	-1%
Southwestern Ontario	5	2.5	7	3.3	-36%
Eastern Ontario		.0	5	2.2	-59%
Ontario total					-29%

[tomh009]

FRIDAY 2021-06-04

Waterloo Region reported 55 new cases for today (17.0% of the active cases) and one more for yesterday for 48; 291 new cases for the week (+24 from yesterday, -5 from last week), averaging 12.0% of active cases. 358 active cases, -37 in the last seven days.

An average of 938 tests per day for the past week with a positivity rate of 4.43%.

The results within the region are not terrible, but progress appears to have stalled while the overall provincial case numbers and positivity rate continue to drop rapidly.

8,070 doses of vaccine administered with a seven-day average of 5,595. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the regional population on 2021-06-19 (-1 day). This date is now trailing the provincial one by 13 days (-2 days).

Ontario reported 914 new cases today with a seven-day average of 889 (-51). 1,397 recoveries and 19 deaths translated to a decrease of 502 active cases and a new total of 9,459. -5,979 active cases for the week and 109 deaths (16 per day). 32,258 tests with a positivity rate of 2.83%. The positivity rate is averaging 3.31% for the past seven days, compared to 4.95% for the preceding seven.

New case variants reported today:

• Alpha (B.1.1.7): 1,248
  
• Beta (B.1.351): 18
  
• Gamma (P.1): 46
  

522 patients in ICU (-8 today, -123 for the week). Total hospital population of 687 (-336 for the week).

168,322 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 138,693. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-06 (+0 day) -- that's Sunday!

• 169 cases in Peel: 12.2 per 100K
  
• 69 cases in Durham: 10.7 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Thunder Bay: 10.7 per 100K
  
• 59 cases in Hamilton: 10.2 per 100K
  
• 56 cases in Waterloo: 9.1 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 214 cases in Toronto: 7.3 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Lambton: 6.9 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 6.3 per 100K
  
• 33 cases in Halton: 6.0 per 100K
  
• 24 cases in Middlesex-London: 5.9 per 100K
  
• 52 cases in Ottawa: 5.2 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Brant: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 22 cases in Niagara: 4.9 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Windsor-Essex: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 23 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 4.3 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Chatham-Kent: 3.8 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Huron Perth: 3.1 per 100K
  
• 31 cases in York: 2.8 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 2.5 per 100K
  

[tomh009]

SATURDAY 2021-06-05

Waterloo Region reported 46 new cases for today (12.9% of the active cases) and none more for yesterday for 55; 282 new cases for the week (-9 from yesterday, -12 from last week), averaging 11.9% of active cases. 352 active cases, -23 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Next vaccination report on Monday.

Ontario reported 744 new cases today with a seven-day average of 844 (-45). 1,242 recoveries and 24 deaths translated to a decrease of 522 active cases and a new total of 8,937. -5,486 active cases for the week and 118 deaths (17 per day). 27,819 tests with a positivity rate of 2.67%. The positivity rate is averaging 3.25% for the past seven days, compared to 4.66% for the preceding seven.

New case variants reported today (these are substantially delayed so they do not match the new case numbers):

• Alpha (B.1.1.7): 1,316
  
• Beta (B.1.351): 63
  
• Gamma (P.1): 296
  

516 patients in ICU (-6 today, -110 for the week). Total hospital population of 625 (-309 for the week).

172,855 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 142,105 (previous week was 137,402). 60.3% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.8% from yesterday), 6.5% fully vaccinated (+0.4% from yesterday).

• 20 cases in Thunder Bay: 13.3 per 100K
  
• 61 cases in Hamilton: 10.5 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Brant: 9.6 per 100K
  
• 123 cases in Peel: 8.9 per 100K
  
• 51 cases in Waterloo: 8.3 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 10 cases in Lambton: 7.6 per 100K
  
• 181 cases in Toronto: 6.2 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 5.9 per 100K
  
• 21 cases in Windsor-Essex: 5.4 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Huron Perth: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 31 cases in Durham: 4.8 per 100K
  
• 48 cases in York: 4.3 per 100K
  
• 18 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 3.3 per 100K
  
• 29 cases in Ottawa: 2.9 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Middlesex-London: 2.7 per 100K
  

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-06-06 (posting this every two days).

NB: I am thinking to discontinue these posts, at least for the time being, unless there will be a massive hue and cry about it. I will still continue with the daily updates.

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Peel	112	8.1	167	12.1	-43%
Hamilton	33	5.7	57	9.8	-31%
Brant	12	8.8	11	8.4	-19%
Durham	33	5.1	51	8.0	-37%
Thunder Bay	8	5.3	11	7.3	+7%
Toronto	115	3.9	208	7.1	-34%
Waterloo	34	5.5	42	6.8	-9%
Niagara	59	13.2	29	6.5	-5%
Huron Perth	2	2.0	6	6.1	-89%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	6	2.2	16	5.9	-29%
Middlesex-London	14	3.5	24	5.9	-55%
Windsor-Essex	16	4.1	20	5.2	-35%
York	47	4.2	58	5.2	-44%
Ottawa	40	4.0	51	5.1	-54%
Halton	31	5.7	27	4.9	-49%
Simcoe-Muskoka	27	5.0	26	4.9	-29%
Lambton	3	2.3	6	4.5	-24%
Southwestern Ontario	5	2.5	5	2.6	-50%
Ontario total					-35%

[bgb_ca]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-06-06 (posting this every two days).

NB: I am thinking to discontinue these posts, at least for the time being, unless there will be a massive hue and cry about it. I will still continue with the daily updates.

I like seeing these, but I think you can decrease the frequency from every 2 days to say once a week?

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2021-06-06 (posting this every two days).

NB: I am thinking to discontinue these posts, at least for the time being, unless there will be a massive hue and cry about it. I will still continue with the daily updates.

I like seeing these, but I think you can decrease the frequency from every 2 days to say once a week?

Fair enough, I'll do them on maybe each Saturday for now, when there is less data otherwise.

[tomh009]

SUNDAY 2021-06-06

Waterloo Region reported 32 new cases for today (9.1% of the active cases) and none more for yesterday for 46; 277 new cases for the week (-5 from yesterday, -9 from last week), averaging 11.9% of active cases. 343 active cases, -4 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

Next vaccination report on Monday.

Ontario reported 663 new cases today with a seven-day average of 791 (-53). 1,222 recoveries and 10 deaths translated to a decrease of 569 active cases and a new total of 8,368. -5,003 active cases for the week and 110 deaths (16 per day). 22,635 tests with a positivity rate of 2.93%. The positivity rate is averaging 3.11% for the past seven days, compared to 4.44% for the preceding seven.

New case variants reported today (these are substantially delayed so they do not match the new case numbers):

• Alpha (B.1.1.7): 868
  
• Beta (B.1.351): 41
  
• Gamma (P.1): 477
  

It's hard to say what the split is for new cases as roughly half the analysis cases are for old cases, but it's clear that Gamma is increasingly common (and probably Delta, too, but no data is published for that yet).

510 patients in ICU (-6 today, -104 for the week).

158,893 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 144,042 (previous week was 131,239). 60.88% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.62% from yesterday), 7.01% fully vaccinated (+0.47% from yesterday).

• 59 cases in Niagara: 13.2 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Brant: 8.8 per 100K
  
• 112 cases in Peel: 8.1 per 100K
  
• 33 cases in Hamilton: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 31 cases in Halton: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 34 cases in Waterloo: 5.5 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 8 cases in Thunder Bay: 5.3 per 100K
  
• 33 cases in Durham: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 27 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 5.0 per 100K
  
• 47 cases in York: 4.2 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Windsor-Essex: 4.1 per 100K
  
• 40 cases in Ottawa: 4.0 per 100K
  
• 115 cases in Toronto: 3.9 per 100K
  
• 14 cases in Middlesex-London: 3.5 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Chatham-Kent: 2.8 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 2.5 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Lambton: 2.3 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 2.2 per 100K
  

[tomh009]

MONDAY 2021-06-07

Waterloo Region reported 44 new cases for today (12.9% of the active cases) and none more for yesterday for 32; 289 new cases for the week (+12 from yesterday, +11 from last week), averaging 12.4% of active cases. 352 active cases, +20 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Tuesday.

An average of 6,259 vaccinations per day over the last three days, with a seven-day average of 6,448. 53.51% of the regional population has at least one dose of vaccine, and 4.47% has been fully vaccinated.

Ontario reported 525 new cases today with a seven-day average of 735 (-56). 941 recoveries and 15 deaths translated to a decrease of 431 active cases and a new total of 7,937. -4,630 active cases for the week and 112 deaths (16 per day). 15,177 tests with a positivity rate of 3.46%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.88% for the past seven days, compared to 4.13% for the preceding seven.

New case variants reported today (these are substantially delayed so they do not match the new case numbers):

• Alpha (B.1.1.7): 705
  
• Beta (B.1.351): 21
  
• Gamma (P.1): 239
  

It's hard to say what the split is for new cases as roughly half the analysis cases are for old cases, but it's clear that Gamma is increasingly common (and probably Delta, too, but no data is published for that yet).

497 patients in ICU (-13 today, -120 for the week). 31 of the 497 are transfers from Manitoba.

116,829 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 146,768 (previous week was 131,044). 61.29% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.41% from yesterday), 7.38% fully vaccinated (+0.37% from yesterday).

• 51 cases in Waterloo: 8.3 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 95 cases in Peel: 6.9 per 100K
  
• 40 cases in Durham: 6.2 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Brant: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Windsor-Essex: 4.9 per 100K
  
• 26 cases in Halton: 4.7 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 4.6 per 100K
  
• 6 cases in Lambton: 4.6 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Hamilton: 4.3 per 100K
  
• 114 cases in Toronto: 3.9 per 100K
  
• 15 cases in Niagara: 3.3 per 100K
  
• 34 cases in York: 3.1 per 100K
  

... and Waterloo races to the lead. Our lower vaccination rate to date is not doing us any favours here.

[jeffster]

... and Waterloo races to the lead.   Our lower vaccination rate to date is not doing us any favours here.

This was what I was concerned about when we were discussing this last week. Our vaccine rollout has been pretty poor. I do find it amusing though, that Redman is even on any of Covid-19 taskforce, because she shouldn't be. I say this because of the stunt she pulled during Oktoberfest, then her subsequent Covid-19 infection after New Years. Our regional chair should be taking Covid-19 more seriously, but she hasn't. Either way, I don't think that she should be involved in any way with our vaccine rollout.

To be clear, I am not blaming her for all this. However, I have to wonder who, if anyone, is advocating for doses for our region, and why we still don't have a robust vaccination program. I mean, it's bad.

Fact that we're worse than Ontario and, of all places, Toronto, says a lot. And I get the feeling we'll get to top spot and stay there for a long time (with maybe Porcupine being worse).

[welltoldtales]

It sounds like a big reason was a recent outbreak associated with some event. When you are looking at smaller populations this can happen pretty quickly. We will see what happens but I do think another issue we will have here is there are large portions of the population that will refuse the vaccine.

We have a number of religious groups that I know the region is trying to engage but I think it is going to be tough to convince them to take the vaccine. And that bubbles over to other folks too. Anyone that is on the fence feels a bit safer saying they won't take the vaccine when they have groups who are also refusing it. Luckily for our region though, it seems that many of the individuals refusing the vaccine also tend to have better success outcomes.

[tomh009]

... and Waterloo races to the lead.   Our lower vaccination rate to date is not doing us any favours here.

To be clear, I am not blaming her for all this. However, I have to wonder who, if anyone, is advocating for doses for our region, and why we still don't have a robust vaccination program. I mean, it's bad.

The province has been allocating the vaccine doses to regions so the regions don't get to decide that. Peel is asking for more doses again for their hotspots, even though their new case levels are well below ours now. But, in the end, it's a provincial decision.

I haven't seen any real issues with the actual vaccination program in the region but maybe there are problems that I haven't spotted. What are the issues with the regional vaccination program, in your view?

[tomh009]

It sounds like a big reason was a recent outbreak associated with some event. When you are looking at smaller populations this can happen pretty quickly. We will see what happens but I do think another issue we will have here is there are large portions of the population that will refuse the vaccine.

We have a number of religious groups that I know the region is trying to engage but I think it is going to be tough to convince them to take the vaccine. And that bubbles over to other folks too. Anyone that is on the fence feels a bit safer saying they won't take the vaccine when they have groups who are also refusing it. Luckily for our region though, it seems that many of the individuals refusing the vaccine also tend to have better success outcomes.

I don't see a pattern matching a big outbreak, and I don't see one among the outbreaks on the regional site (there are only four active outbreaks at the moment, with a total of 47 cases). Instead, it simply looks like our cases are not dropping as fast as much of the rest of the province.

Vaccine hesitancy does not appear to be a problem yet, some small, specific groups aside.

[tomh009]

TUESDAY 2021-06-08

Waterloo Region reported 30 new cases for today (8.4% of the active cases) and four more for yesterday for 48; 290 new cases for the week (+1 from yesterday, +9 from last week), averaging 12.0% of active cases. 352 active cases, +24 in the last seven days.

Tuesday testing data was not published for some reason.

6,329 vaccinations with a seven-day average of 6,578. 54.21% of the total regional population (+0.7%) has at least one dose of vaccine, and 4.79% (+0.32%) has been fully vaccinated.

Ontario reported 469 new cases today with a seven-day average of 703 (-32).1,010 recoveries and 18 deaths translated to a decrease of 559 active cases and a new total of 7,378. -4,311 active cases for the week and 121 deaths (17 per day). 17,579 tests with a positivity rate of 2.67%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.77% for the past seven days, compared to 3.74% for the preceding seven.

New case variants reported today (these are substantially delayed so they do not match the new case numbers):

• Alpha (B.1.1.7): 1,010
  
• Beta (B.1.351): 0
  
• Gamma (P.1): 30
  

481 patients in ICU (-16 today, -102 for the week) and 621 total hospital patients (-183 for the week). ICU now accounts for 77% of the COVID-19 hospital patients (72% if we exclude the transferred Manitoba patients). This makes sense as admissions have dropped dramatically but the ICU patients have much longer stays than the non-ICU patients, on average.

158,209 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 152,199 (previous week was 135,797). 61.78% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.49% from yesterday), 7.98% fully vaccinated (+0.60% from yesterday).

• 182 cases in Toronto: 6.2 per 100K
  
• 76 cases in Peel: 5.5 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Brant: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 30 cases in Durham: 4.6 per 100K
  
• 24 cases in Halton: 4.4 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 4.0 per 100K
  
• 24 cases in Waterloo: 3.9 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 3 cases in Huron Perth: 3.1 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Niagara: 2.9 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Thunder Bay: 2.7 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Windsor-Essex: 2.3 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Hamilton: 2.1 per 100K