The COVID-19 pandemic

[danbrotherston]

I'm confused, I thought we were in this situation because of illegal raves and backcountry camping, and yet I don't see either on the list.

Well ... I was under the impression that workplace outbreaks only covered maybe 10-20% of the cases. However, that was based on trying to interpret the data on their dashboard, and it doesn't break the data out in this way, so it looks like it may have been a bad assumption. 

I do wish they would publish this data regularly. (The percentages above seem to be based on only 32 cases, however!)

I mean, this has been the narrative I've heard for a while, both locally and broadly.

The fact that it is only based on 32 cases probably speaks to the failure of our government more than anything--certainly it is going to be too few to make any judgement on WHICH workplaces are most risky.

But it comes as little surprise to me, it is part of the amplified inequities in our society.

[tomh009]

WEDNESDAY 2021-04-21

Waterloo Region reported 67 new cases for today (9.5% of the active cases) and six more for yesterday for a total of 137; 566 new cases for the week (-29), averaging 12.8% of active cases. 601 active cases, -53 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

With the availability of AZ vaccine now broadened to 40+, there were 5,250 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 3,887. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-29 (-4 days).

Ontario reported 4,212 new cases today with a seven-day average of 4,327 (+8). 4,204 recoveries and 32 deaths translated to a decrease of 24 active cases -- the first drop since mid-March -- and a new total of 42,917. +6,109 active cases for the week and 179 deaths (26 per day). 51,877 tests for a positivity rate of 8.12%. The positivity rate is averaging 8.19% for the past seven days, compared to 7.39% for the preceding seven.

790 patients in ICU (+17 today, +148 for the week) and a total of 2,335 patients hospitalized (+458 for the week).

136,695 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 101,273. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-17 (-3 days). The regional completion date currently lags the provincial one by 12 days (-2 today).

• 771 cases in Peel: 55.8 per 100K
  
• 276 cases in Hamilton: 47.7 per 100K
  
• 201 cases in Niagara: 44.9 per 100K
  
• 1,249 cases in Toronto: 42.6 per 100K
  
• 50 cases in Brant: 36.8 per 100K
  
• 386 cases in York: 34.8 per 100K
  
• 214 cases in Durham: 33.1 per 100K
  
• 168 cases in Halton: 30.6 per 100K
  
• 82 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 30.1 per 100K
  
• 117 cases in Middlesex-London: 28.9 per 100K
  
• 124 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 23.0 per 100K
  
• 120 cases in Waterloo: 19.4 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 74 cases in Windsor-Essex: 19.0 per 100K
  
• 177 cases in Ottawa: 17.8 per 100K
  
• 24 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 12.0 per 100K
  
• 22 cases in Eastern Ontario: 10.9 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Thunder Bay: 10.7 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Northwestern: 10.3 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 7.6 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 3.9 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Lambton: 2.3 per 100K
  
• 8 cases in Sudbury: 2.1 per 100K
  

Only regions with at least two cases per 100,000 population

[tomh009]

Well ... I was under the impression that workplace outbreaks only covered maybe 10-20% of the cases. However, that was based on trying to interpret the data on their dashboard, and it doesn't break the data out in this way, so it looks like it may have been a bad assumption. 

I do wish they would publish this data regularly. (The percentages above seem to be based on only 32 cases, however!)

I mean, this has been the narrative I've heard for a while, both locally and broadly.

The fact that it is only based on 32 cases probably speaks to the failure of our government more than anything--certainly it is going to be too few to make any judgement on WHICH workplaces are most risky.

But it comes as little surprise to me, it is part of the amplified inequities in our society.

It makes sense, it's not shocking. It's just disappointing that it's been a guessing game this long because they have not published data.

But that data, as small a sample as it is, really says the paid sick days are crucial.

[megabytephreak]

WEDNESDAY 2021-04-21
90,409 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 97,861. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-17 (-3 days). The regional completion date currently lags the provincial one by 12 days (-2 today).

Thanks for posting these!

That is yesterdays vaccine data repeated, today was 136695. Apparently about 10K or so of that is delayed from yesterday due to the Rogers outage on Monday. Still a new record at >125K.
https://twitter.com/BogochIsaac/status/1...41441?s=19

[tomh009]

WEDNESDAY 2021-04-21
90,409 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 97,861. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-06-17 (-3 days). The regional completion date currently lags the provincial one by 12 days (-2 today).

Thanks for posting these!

That is yesterdays vaccine data repeated, today was 136695. Apparently about 10K or so of that is delayed from yesterday due to the Rogers outage on Monday. Still a new record at >125K.
https://twitter.com/BogochIsaac/status/1...41441?s=19

You're right, I missed updating. It should say

136,695 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 101,273

Will update the original post now.

[tomh009]

Waterloo Region is identifying about 37% of the new cases as variants (for the past week). This is significantly lower than the GTA, and likely explains why our R-value is hovering around 1.0 and their numbers are exploding.

[ac3r]

I'm glad to see most regions are dropping since the lockdown started. All the naysayers who speak out against them really need to take a few minutes to look at charts to see that they do have an impact.

This week I was visiting one of our local hospitals for some work. I was in one of the non-critical Covid-19 wards. We went into the room of one man who was probably only in his mid 30s. He was completely bedridden, hooked up on oxygen and countless other devices, barely able to hold up the book he was reading or say hello to me. He basically looked like a breathing corpse despite being lucid of things. Although I was only in the ward for a short time, it was a sight that would scare the shit out of anyone. It's too bad the people packing into churches like Trinity Chapel or those protesting with Hugs Over Masks signs every Sunday can't see this sort of stuff, though I kind of suspect it wouldn't really faze them.

[plam]

Waterloo Region is identifying about 37% of the new cases as variants (for the past week). This is significantly lower than the GTA, and likely explains why our R-value is hovering around 1.0 and their numbers are exploding.

That would be a reasonable explanation, but is the denominator all screened cases or all cases? Seems like PHO had a change in that recently.

[ijmorlan]

This week I was visiting one of our local hospitals for some work. I was in one of the non-critical Covid-19 wards. We went into the room of one man who was probably only in his mid 30s. He was completely bedridden, hooked up on oxygen and countless other devices, barely able to hold up the book he was reading or say hello to me. He basically looked like a breathing corpse despite being lucid of things. Although I was only in the ward for a short time, it was a sight that would scare the shit out of anyone. It's too bad the people packing into churches like Trinity Chapel or those protesting with Hugs Over Masks signs every Sunday can't see this sort of stuff, though I kind of suspect it wouldn't really faze them.

No wonder we’re not making much progress on climate change. Covid and its associated mortality is all around us — the result of our collective behaviour is happening now, not years from now — and yet there are still many denialists. How much easier to be a denialist about something whose worst results are still in the future and where it takes more knowledge to understand the connection between action and result.

[nms]

I mean, this has been the narrative I've heard for a while, both locally and broadly.

The fact that it is only based on 32 cases probably speaks to the failure of our government more than anything--certainly it is going to be too few to make any judgement on WHICH workplaces are most risky.

But it comes as little surprise to me, it is part of the amplified inequities in our society.

It makes sense, it's not shocking. It's just disappointing that it's been a guessing game this long because they have not published data.

But that data, as small a sample as it is, really says the paid sick days are crucial.

The original dateline for the article is April 2, 2020 so at least some of the data has been public for more than a year.

Highlights from the local data, as reported by Waterloo Region Public Health on April 21, 2021 at 1:30pm:
50.0% of local cases are connected to the workplace
27.8% are connected to schools
8.3% are connected to licensed child care
8.3% are connected to congregate settings
2.8% are connected to hospitals
2.8% are connected  to LTC/Retirement Homes
0% are connected to independent living
0% are connected to universities

Transmission type (cumulative):
44% (5936) Close contact
30% (4021) Community
24% (3239) Outbreak
2% (243) Travel

New Daily Cases: 74 (83.6 Seven Day, Rolling Average)

Cumulative To Date:
13,504 Total
12,655 cases resolved
248 deceased
586 active cases
51 cases hospitalized

Cumulative age breakdown:
4% < 9 years of age (583 cases)
10% 10-19 years of age (1297 cases)
24% 20-29 years of age (3281 cases)
16% 30-39 years of age (2212  cases)
14% 40-49 years of age (1853 cases)
13% 50-59 years of age (1778 cases)
8% 60-69 years of age (1120 cases)
5% 70-79 years of age (613 cases)
4% 80-89 years of age (480 cases)
2% 90+ years of age 

[ac3r]

B.1.617 - a variant responsible for the incredible surge in cases and deaths in India (314'835 cases today!) - has been found in both Vancouver and Quebec. The alarming thing is that the patient in Quebec was vaccinated back in January. We'll have to see how that impacts vaccinations across the board. The Prime Minister is considering severely limiting flights in from India, which if required I hope he would do even if it might be political suicide for the Liberal Party. That said, if it's already being detected in two provinces, I imagine it's out in the wild and there would be no containing it at this point.

[danbrotherston]

B.1.617 - a variant responsible for the incredible surge in cases and deaths in India (314'835 cases today!) - has been found in both Vancouver and Quebec. The alarming thing is that the patient in Quebec was vaccinated back in January. We'll have to see how that impacts vaccinations across the board. The Prime Minister is considering severely limiting flights in from India, which if required I hope he would do even if it might be political suicide for the Liberal Party. That said, if it's already being detected in two provinces, I imagine it's out in the wild and there would be no containing it at this point.

I don't think we need to do that, I just think we need an actual quarantine.

Like people who choose to ignore it, should be arrested and held for the quarantine period. And the fines should be an order of magnitude higher than the cost of quarantining. And there should be no "fly into Buffalo and drive across" loophole.

This seems very straight forward.

[Rainrider22]

B.1.617 - a variant responsible for the incredible surge in cases and deaths in India (314'835 cases today!) - has been found in both Vancouver and Quebec. The alarming thing is that the patient in Quebec was vaccinated back in January. We'll have to see how that impacts vaccinations across the board. The Prime Minister is considering severely limiting flights in from India, which if required I hope he would do even if it might be political suicide for the Liberal Party. That said, if it's already being detected in two provinces, I imagine it's out in the wild and there would be no containing it at this point.

I don't think we need to do that, I just think we need an actual quarantine.

Like people who choose to ignore it, should be arrested and held for the quarantine period. And the fines should be an order of magnitude higher than the cost of quarantining. And there should be no "fly into Buffalo and drive across" loophole.

This seems very straight forward.

Please tell me you arent serious about having people arrested ???  I cant believe anyone would agree with this...

[tomh009]

The original dateline for the article is April 2, 2020 so at least some of the data has been public for more than a year.

Highlights from the local data, as reported by Waterloo Region Public Health on April 21, 2021 at 1:30pm:
50.0% of local cases are connected to the workplace
27.8% are connected to schools
8.3% are connected to licensed child care
8.3% are connected to congregate settings
2.8% are connected to hospitals
2.8% are connected  to LTC/Retirement Homes
0% are connected to independent living
0% are connected to universities

This one looks like it's based on 36 cases. It's be nice to have at least a weekly average. Do you know where to find the source data? It's not here:
https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/healt...egion.aspx

[danbrotherston]

I don't think we need to do that, I just think we need an actual quarantine.

Like people who choose to ignore it, should be arrested and held for the quarantine period. And the fines should be an order of magnitude higher than the cost of quarantining. And there should be no "fly into Buffalo and drive across" loophole.

This seems very straight forward.

Please tell me you arent serious about having people arrested ???  I cant believe anyone would agree with this...

I'm sorry, why is this objectionable. There is a requirement to quarantine when you return from traveling, why should people be permitted to endanger our community, by ignoring this requirement? A fine doesn't solve the problem, it might help incentivise better behaviour.

Ultimately I see it this way, one must quarantine, if they prefer to do so in a hotel, they can. If one prefers to do so in a jail cell, well, that would be their choice too. We lock people up for far longer, for far less justifiable reasons. The ONLY difference I see, is in the wealth and privilege of those who are subject to these consequences.

I can't believe that folks wouldn't agree with this. Yes, we need to get community transmission in check. But look at the freedoms that Australia and NZ enjoy right now. Why would anyone NOT want that?!