The COVID-19 pandemic

[tomh009]

Something is not right. G&M's data is very different:

Does Ontario have 72 cases in ICU, or 434? That's a massive difference. And if Waterloo-Wellington has 21 hospitalized cases, Quebec's ratio would indicate maybe seven of them in ICU, not 31.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/a...yrocketed/

There were 72 confirmed cases on March 27, along with 324 suspected cases. Part of the CBC article highlights the fact that briefings from Ontario's Associate Chief Medical Officer used data that were a few days out of date. That G&M article was published on Monday the 30th, so I surmise that it used info from the Sunday briefing, which showed 72 (again, confirmed) cases in ICU.

Thanks, re-reading CBC, the key word is "suspected" which is surely a lower confidence level than "presumptive", with no clear diagnosis, let alone a confirming test result. So there may be a lot of COVID-19 in the ICUs, or maybe not. Today's regional report indicates 22 COVID-19 cases (confirmed and presumptive) in the ICU. And maybe it's another 10 or so pneumonia cases etc where it could be COVID-19, or maybe not.

[plam]

The Waterloo Public Health site is providing a lot more information than they have in the past: https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/healt...egion.aspx

The age distribution is interesting. It totally does not match what we are seeing in NZ, where there is a plurality of 20 year olds among the positive cases. Most NZ cases are imported, so it probably means that the 20 year olds are the ones who came back from travel.

[tomh009]

The Waterloo Public Health site is providing a lot more information than they have in the past: https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/healt...egion.aspx

The age distribution is interesting. It totally does not match what we are seeing in NZ, where there is a plurality of 20 year olds among the positive cases. Most NZ cases are imported, so it probably means that the 20 year olds are the ones who came back from travel.

The other interesting factoid from this week is that apparently the Chinese government was not counting asymptomatic cases even if they tested positive.(This would help to explain the high mortality rate in Wuhan.) Was this to keep people from panicking due to the high numbers?

[danbrotherston]

The age distribution is interesting. It totally does not match what we are seeing in NZ, where there is a plurality of 20 year olds among the positive cases. Most NZ cases are imported, so it probably means that the 20 year olds are the ones who came back from travel.

The other interesting factoid from this week is that apparently the Chinese government was not counting asymptomatic cases even if they tested positive.(This would help to explain the high mortality rate in Wuhan.) Was this to keep people from panicking due to the high numbers?

It is also probably that the death rate was undercounted. It's not clear by how much (far too much speculation, very little data), but it is likely the official count is an undercount.

As for NZ, travel is a likely factor for a plurality of young folks, but there are many many factors. Age and pre-existing conditions do not play a role in how likely you are to contract the virus--beyond that of behavioural changes--but in Ontario it does change your chances of being TESTED for the virus, where those who are in high risk groups are more likely to be tested, thus our positive rate will be more likely to undercount low risk individuals.

We also have a local custom of older individuals traveling to southern destinations for the winter, so I don't actually know how prevalent travel is amount different age groups.

[MidTowner]

It is also probably that the death rate was undercounted. It's not clear by how much (far too much speculation, very little data), but it is likely the official count is an undercount.

As for NZ, travel is a likely factor for a plurality of young folks, but there are many many factors. Age and pre-existing conditions do not play a role in how likely you are to contract the virus--beyond that of behavioural changes--but in Ontario it does change your chances of being TESTED for the virus, where those who are in high risk groups are more likely to be tested, thus our positive rate will be more likely to undercount low risk individuals.

We also have a local custom of older individuals traveling to southern destinations for the winter, so I don't actually know how prevalent travel is amount different age groups.

What makes you think that this is probable? My assumption would be that the total number of cases would be extremely low- many people will be asymptomatic and never come across the health care system, and others won't be tested because of a finite supply of testing.

What would cause the number of deaths to be undercounted in a significant way? Besides a desire to outright deceive, I mean.

[danbrotherston]

It is also probably that the death rate was undercounted. It's not clear by how much (far too much speculation, very little data), but it is likely the official count is an undercount.

As for NZ, travel is a likely factor for a plurality of young folks, but there are many many factors. Age and pre-existing conditions do not play a role in how likely you are to contract the virus--beyond that of behavioural changes--but in Ontario it does change your chances of being TESTED for the virus, where those who are in high risk groups are more likely to be tested, thus our positive rate will be more likely to undercount low risk individuals.

We also have a local custom of older individuals traveling to southern destinations for the winter, so I don't actually know how prevalent travel is amount different age groups.

What makes you think that this is probable? My assumption would be that the total number of cases would be extremely low- many people will be asymptomatic and never come across the health care system, and others won't be tested because of a finite supply of testing.

What would cause the number of deaths to be undercounted in a significant way? Besides a desire to outright deceive, I mean.

The biggest argument was that the cities crematoriums in Wuhan were cremating far far more people than usual, vastly in excess of the official death count.  Lots of people died without testing.

https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-re...low-2020-3

[tomh009]

As for NZ, travel is a likely factor for a plurality of young folks, but there are many many factors. Age and pre-existing conditions do not play a role in how likely you are to contract the virus--beyond that of behavioural changes--but in Ontario it does change your chances of being TESTED for the virus, where those who are in high risk groups are more likely to be tested, thus our positive rate will be more likely to undercount low risk individuals.

We also have a local custom of older individuals traveling to southern destinations for the winter, so I don't actually know how prevalent travel is amount different age groups.

Ontario stats (they are starting to publish more data now) show 625 infections due to travel; about 30% of those (184 cases) were from the US, so our porous border certainly leaked a lot of infections early on.

But here is an interview with an Air Canada flight attendant. That's eight positive cases among the cabin staff alone, not including the passengers, from a single flight from Frankfurt (to likely Toronto).
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/a...o-covid-19

[panamaniac]

It is hard to understand why the airlines have not been obliged to take stronger protective measures.  Staff should be wearing protective gear on all flights and, pending widespread fast testing, flight attendants should go into 14 days of self isolation after each flight (with so many layoffs, there should be abundant staff available to do the rotation).  They also need to stop hiding behind "we're not doctors" and start checking the temperatures of boarding passengers (you got a temperature, you don't fly).

[jgsz]

129 Positive cases in Waterloo Region.  More detail today than in the past at:

https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/healt...egion.aspx

[tomh009]

401 new cases in Ontario today for a 17% increase.

GTAA accounts for 54% of the total cases to date. 320 cases hospitalized to date (not necessarily any more as of today) and 101 have been to ICU.

Quebec reported 907 new cases, almost 20%. Back to the earlier trendline.
2020-03-23 778 (+258%)
2020-03-24 1040 (+34%)
2020-03-25 1339 (+29%)
2020-03-26 1629 (+22%)
2020-03-27 2021 (+24%)
2020-03-28 2498 (+24%)
2020-03-29 2840 (+13%)
2020-03-30 3430 (+17%)
2020-03-31 4162 (+21%)
2020-04-01 4611 (+11%)
2020-04-02 5518 (+20%)

[tomh009]

The Waterloo Public Health site is providing a lot more information than they have in the past: https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/healt...egion.aspx

Since yesterday.

One additional tidbit they added to the Tableau dashboard is details on the retirement homes: currently there are six cases in five different homes.

[jamincan]

Any idea why the situation in Quebec seems worse than in Ontario right now? It seems they've taken far more strict measures than Ontario, but that doesn't seem to be reflected in the numbers.

[plam]

Any idea why the situation in Quebec seems worse than in Ontario right now? It seems they've taken far more strict measures than Ontario, but that doesn't seem to be reflected in the numbers.

Hard to say, but people are looking at hospitalization numbers as more likely to be accurate. My dad pointed out that Quebec businesses have been closed for 3 weeks now.

[panamaniac]

Any idea why the situation in Quebec seems worse than in Ontario right now? It seems they've taken far more strict measures than Ontario, but that doesn't seem to be reflected in the numbers.

Any idea why the situation in Quebec seems worse than in Ontario right now? It seems they've taken far more strict measures than Ontario, but that doesn't seem to be reflected in the numbers.

Hard to say, but people are looking at hospitalization numbers as more likely to be accurate. My dad pointed out that Quebec businesses have been closed for 3 weeks now.

I believe Montreal restaurants were only closed last week, after being allowed to run at half-capacity for a while.

[jordan2423]

Ontario will announce full police lockdown tomorrow is what my friend told me. He works in the government.