The COVID-19 pandemic

[tomh009]

TUESDAY 2020-12-29

Waterloo Region reported 72 new cases today (12.9% of the active cases).  514 new cases for the week (-24), averaging 12.0% of active cases. 525 active cases, -82 in the last seven days.

An average of 2,469 tests per day for the last four days, for a positivity rate of 2.47%. The positivity rate is averaging 3.71% for the past seven days, compared to 3.63% for the preceding seven.

Ontario reported 2,553 new cases today, with a seven-day average of 2,236 (+50). 2,120 recoveries and 41 deaths translated to an increase of 279 active cases and a current total of 19,891. +591 active cases for the week and 267 deaths (38 per day). 34,112 tests for a positivity rate of 7.48% (!). The positivity rate is averaging 4.72% for the past seven days, compared to 3.93% for the preceding seven.

304 patients in ICU (+8).

• 147 cases in Windsor-Essex: 37.8 per 100K
  
• 496 cases in Peel: 35.9 per 100K
  
• 895 cases in Toronto: 30.5 per 100K
  
• 115 cases in Niagara: 25.7 per 100K
  
• 144 cases in Hamilton: 24.9 per 100K
  
• 86 cases in Middlesex-London: 21.3 per 100K
  
• 57 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 21.0 per 100K
  
• 108 cases in Durham: 16.7 per 100K
  
• 78 cases in Halton: 14.2 per 100K
  
• 142 cases in York: 12.8 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 12.5 per 100K
  
• 57 cases in Waterloo: 9.2 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 8 cases in Huron Perth: 8.2 per 100K
  
• 11 cases in Brant County: 8.1 per 100K
  
• 16 cases in Eastern Ontario: 7.9 per 100K
  
• 65 cases in Ottawa: 6.5 per 100K
  
• 34 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 6.3 per 100K
  
• 9 cases in Thunder Bay: 6.0 per 100K
  

[jeffster]

895 cases in Toronto, and we’re to think that a lockdown will improve things. I don’t see it. People will do what they want, and that’s why Toronto and Peel are still hurting.

[tomh009]

895 cases in Toronto, and we’re to think that a lockdown will improve things.  I don’t see it. People will do what they want, and that’s why Toronto and Peel are still hurting.

I think that the 895 number is not correct, for today. Why?

I look at the last 10 days for Toronto, and the counts are:
486 611 636 629 646 616 541 572 412 895

The 412 from yesterday's report (and likely for testing on Boxing Day) looks too low. And the jump to 895 today looks too high. My guess (and it is only a guess) is that a few hundred of those cases should have been reported yesterday, and the last two numbers should be 600-something and 700-something.

If my guess is correct, we should see something on the order of 600-700 new cases in Toronto tomorrow. If it's not, it should be 800-900 new cases. We'll see tomorrow.

[panamaniac]

In Ottawa's case, they monitor the sewage and it has been known for a while from that that the numbers were going to head up (there's apparently about a week's lag time).

[ac3r]

Over 200 people administered COVID-19 vaccine in Waterloo region so far, with clinics ramping up: https://www.waterloochronicle.ca/news-st...amping-up/

In case you haven't read the timeline for provincewide vaccination, CBC has an article. Looks like us "normal people" will likely get vaccinated from April to July, possibly extending into August: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/o...-1.5856702

[Bjays93]

895 cases in Toronto, and we’re to think that a lockdown will improve things.  I don’t see it. People will do what they want, and that’s why Toronto and Peel are still hurting.

If my guess is correct, we should see something on the order of 600-700 new cases in Toronto tomorrow. If it's not, it should be 800-900 new cases. We'll see tomorrow.

Unfortunately this appears to not be the case.

As for anecdotal christmas evidence. Having just graduated high school and having many teenage friends, it definitely felt like friends were getting together lots the week before Christmas, though typically outside. 

I too do not know many families that had big get togethers for christmas so that is good as well. In fact my family is the only one I know of that had (my) aunts and uncles come over. However we were also being incredibly safe, medical grade masks were worn the whole time, ate food in separate rooms or beforehand. Air purifiers running throughout the house. Never exceeded 10 people anyway as it's a small family, and we felt it was necessary given the fact my 15yr old brother took his own life exactly two months before Christmas eve so we knew we needed at least some family around.

[jeffster]

895 cases in Toronto, and we’re to think that a lockdown will improve things.  I don’t see it. People will do what they want, and that’s why Toronto and Peel are still hurting.

I think that the 895 number is not correct, for today. Why?

I look at the last 10 days for Toronto, and the counts are:
486 611 636 629 646 616 541 572 412 895

The 412 from yesterday's report (and likely for testing on Boxing Day) looks too low. And the jump to 895 today looks too high. My guess (and it is only a guess) is that a few hundred of those cases should have been reported yesterday, and the last two numbers should be 600-something and 700-something.

If my guess is correct, we should see something on the order of 600-700 new cases in Toronto tomorrow. If it's not, it should be 800-900 new cases. We'll see tomorrow.

998 for Toronto today.

The regions with the lockdowns earlier are being slammed the hardest. Lockdowns won't work because people won't follow the rules, that is, social distancing, wearing masks when around others (but in private), and very limited social bubbles (basically, your household).

I think we're going to see major spikes in the rest of Ontario going forward, and it won't get better, but only worse.

[tomh009]

I think that the 895 number is not correct, for today. Why?

I look at the last 10 days for Toronto, and the counts are:
486 611 636 629 646 616 541 572 412 895

The 412 from yesterday's report (and likely for testing on Boxing Day) looks too low. And the jump to 895 today looks too high. My guess (and it is only a guess) is that a few hundred of those cases should have been reported yesterday, and the last two numbers should be 600-something and 700-something.

If my guess is correct, we should see something on the order of 600-700 new cases in Toronto tomorrow. If it's not, it should be 800-900 new cases. We'll see tomorrow.

998 for Toronto today.

The regions with the lockdowns earlier are being slammed the hardest. Lockdowns won't work because people won't follow the rules, that is, social distancing, wearing masks when around others (but in private), and very limited social bubbles (basically, your household).

I think we're going to see major spikes in the rest of Ontario going forward, and it won't get better, but only worse.

Yes, it looks like I was wrong. Nor for the first, and surely not for the last time.

Regions with lockdowns? Do you mean all of southern Ontario, which is in shutdown?

[tomh009]

10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2020-12-30 (posting this every two days).

Region	Cases today	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Windsor-Essex	144	159.2	40.9	-15%
Peel	441	440.6	31.9	-8%
Toronto	998	655.6	22.4	+22%
York	408	225.3	20.3	+19%
Niagara	82	78.2	17.5	+24%
Middlesex-London	67	70.4	17.4	+7%
Hamilton	69	98.2	17.0	+14%
Lambton	40	21.1	16.1	+57%
Southwestern Ontario	46	31.3	15.7	+15%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	20	41.9	15.4	-5%
Durham	158	96.1	14.9	+12%
Halton	114	81.1	14.8	+17%
Huron Perth	17	13.2	13.5	+26%
Waterloo	69	78.9	12.8	-52%
Brant County	25	13.4	9.9	+33%
Simcoe-Muskoka	65	49.0	9.1	+1%
Eastern Ontario	16	15.4	7.6	+23%
Thunder Bay	5	8.7	5.8	-117%
Ottawa	68	53.5	5.4	+32%
Kingston Frontenac	4	6.1	3.0	-33%
Leeds, Grenville & Lanark	12	3.4	2.0	+76%

Time for a reality check. Most regions above average (notably Peel is not exploding, at least not yet). How much worse will it get by next week?

P.S. Waterloo Region reported 113 cases today so it'll show the spike in tomorrow's provincial report.

[tomh009]

WEDNESDAY 2020-12-30

Waterloo Region reported 113 new cases today (21.6% of the active cases).  537 new cases for the week (+23), averaging 13.0% of active cases. 545 active cases, -73 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday (or possibly later).

Ontario reported 2,923 new cases today, a clear new record, with a seven-day average of 2,310 (+74). 2,237 recoveries and 19 deaths translated to an increase of 667 active cases and a current total of 20,558. +1,134 active cases for the week and 245 deaths (35 per day). 39,210 tests for a positivity rate of 7.45% (!). The positivity rate is averaging 5.18% for the past seven days, compared to 3.91% for the preceding seven. Ouch

323 patients in ICU (+19) and a total of 1177 hospital beds (+175 for the week).

• 144 cases in Windsor-Essex: 37.0 per 100K
  
• 408 cases in York: 36.8 per 100K
  
• 998 cases in Toronto: 34.1 per 100K
  
• 441 cases in Peel: 31.9 per 100K
  
• 40 cases in Lambton: 30.5 per 100K
  
• 158 cases in Durham: 24.5 per 100K
  
• 46 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 23.0 per 100K
  
• 114 cases in Halton: 20.8 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Brant County: 18.4 per 100K
  
• 82 cases in Niagara: 18.3 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Huron Perth: 17.3 per 100K
  
• 67 cases in Middlesex-London: 16.6 per 100K
  
• 65 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 12.0 per 100K
  
• 69 cases in Hamilton: 11.9 per 100K
  
• 69 cases in Waterloo: 11.2 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 16 cases in Eastern Ontario: 7.9 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 7.4 per 100K
  
• 12 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 7.1 per 100K
  
• 68 cases in Ottawa: 6.8 per 100K
  
• 5 cases in Thunder Bay: 3.3 per 100K
  

[plam]

In case you haven't read the timeline for provincewide vaccination, CBC has an article. Looks like us "normal people" will likely get vaccinated from April to July, possibly extending into August: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/o...-1.5856702

That doesn't quite seem to add up to me. Phase 1 is about 1 million vaccines, through March. Phase 2 is April to July but is only aiming to reach 8.5M more. Ontario's population is 15M. I think many people will have been vaccinated by July but it's going to take a few months beyond July for enough people to be vaccinated to end this.

I thought I saw that Massachusetts was hoping to have everyone vaccinated by July as well.

[tomh009]

A bonus posting of 10-day averages for key regions in Ontario, plus the weekly trend as of 2020-12-31, this time sorted by the current count per 100K. Now that the impact of Christmas is visible, there is not much green to be seen.

Peel really is looking more stable, finally. But Windsor is a disaster. And Ottawa is zooming back up the charts.

Region	Cases today	per 100K	10-day average	per 100K	Weekly trend
Windsor-Essex	257	66.1	171	44.0	+3%
Southwestern Ontario	79	39.5	37	18.6	+38%
York	418	37.7	248	22.3	+34%
Peel	431	31.2	436	31.5	-5%
Toronto	888	30.3	683	23.3	+28%
Eastern Ontario	58	28.6	20	9.9	+58%
Middlesex-London	112	27.7	75	18.6	+21%
Hamilton	156	26.9	110	19.0	+7%
Niagara	110	24.6	82	18.4	+29%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	58	21.3	44	16.3	+0%
Waterloo	127	20.6	82	13.3	-7%
Ottawa	194	19.5	70	7.0	+58%
Huron Perth	19	19.4	15	15.0	+13%
Brant County	26	19.1	14	10.6	+53%
Lambton	25	19.1	23	17.4	+45%
Durham	114	17.7	98	15.2	+15%
Simcoe-Muskoka	83	15.4	51	9.5	+30%
Halton	79	14.4	80	14.6	+22%
Kingston Frontenac	13	6.4	7	3.3	+13%
Leeds, Grenville & Lanark	10	5.9	4	2.6	+73%

[ac3r]

3;328 cases today: https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-shatt...-1.5249565

[tomh009]

THURSDAY 2020-12-31
Waterloo Region reported 61 new cases today (11.0% of the active cases), far less than yesterday's spike. Was yesterday's number an aberration, maybe some delayed reporting, or is today the outlier? Stay tuned to find out!  509 new cases for the week (-28), averaging 12.6% of active cases. 523 active cases, -113 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday (or possibly later).

Ontario reported 3,328 new cases today -- do I really need to mention that it's a record? -- with a seven-day average of 2,436 (+126). 2,213 recoveries and 56 (!) deaths translated to an increase of 1,059 active cases and a current total of 21,617. +1,801 active cases for the week and 252 deaths (36 per day). 63,858 tests -- back to normal levels after the holiday weekend -- for a positivity rate of 5.21%. The positivity rate is averaging 5.38% for the past seven days, compared to 3.86% for the preceding seven. Ouch.

Further in the list of bad news, 337 patients in ICU (+14) and a total of 1,235 hospital beds (+268 for the week).

• 257 cases in Windsor-Essex: 66.1 per 100K
  
• 79 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 39.5 per 100K
  
• 418 cases in York: 37.7 per 100K
  
• 431 cases in Peel: 31.2 per 100K
  
• 888 cases in Toronto: 30.3 per 100K
  
• 58 cases in Eastern Ontario: 28.6 per 100K
  
• 112 cases in Middlesex-London: 27.7 per 100K
  
• 156 cases in Hamilton: 26.9 per 100K
  
• 110 cases in Niagara: 24.6 per 100K
  
• 58 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 21.3 per 100K
  
• 127 cases in Waterloo: 20.6 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 194 cases in Ottawa: 19.5 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Huron Perth: 19.4 per 100K
  
• 26 cases in Brant County: 19.1 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Lambton: 19.1 per 100K
  
• 114 cases in Durham: 17.7 per 100K
  
• 83 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 15.4 per 100K
  
• 79 cases in Halton: 14.4 per 100K
  
• 13 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 6.4 per 100K
  
• 10 cases in Leeds, Grenville & Lanark: 5.9 per 100K
  

[Acitta]

Vaccines Are Safe, No Matter What Bobby Kennedy Says

By Kerry Kennedy Meltzer
Dr. Meltzer is an internal medicine resident physician at NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital/Weill Cornell Medical Center.