The COVID-19 pandemic

[plam]

Incidentally, some NZ experts are saying that 1) NZ should delay Omicron as long as possible (boosters, kids, plus better masks) but also once it arrives the government should switch from suppression to mitigation. Though I don't really think anyone has tried harsh lockdowns for Omicron.

To be honest, I don't think anyone has any good answers. No matter what way we handle it, we're shooting ourselves in the foot.

Boosters I don't think will make a huge difference when it comes to omicron infections, though it would help with hospitalizations, but good mask mandates, limited social contacts (that is, hanging out with family and friends), and hygiene would go a long way.

Places like Japan have done fairly well, all considering. But things like cleanliness are held in high regard over there, unlike Canada, where cleanliness and hygiene isn't even a second though, let alone first.

Boosters will help a bit according to the latest data. The 0% effective number for 2 doses wasn't correct. They won't help as much as they did for Delta, but it is more than nothing, and for a few weeks, maybe better at preventing COVID than the flu shot at preventing the flu.

We keep talking about fomites. I'm fairly convinced it is not about fomites and paying attention to fomites means diverting focus away from things like air purifiers.

Except that we KNOW that COVID is almost never transmitted through fomites, so cleaning and hygiene are not effective tools in limiting it's spread.

Mask wearing is much more ubiquitous (and I suspect, significantly less often done wrong...I see noses all over the place now), but I don't know what other policies they have used.

As for the vaccine, the preliminary study that showed the booster was ineffective, has mostly been redacted. The booster is very effective at limiting severe infection, I haven't seen specific data on infections, but all through the pandemic we've seen that limiting severe disease also limits transmission (and of course it does, because if people are less sick for a shorter time they are less likely to spread the virus).

Mostly agree, though I wouldn't say "of course"; I'd be more cautious about links between severe infection and being a superspreader. But there is some chance that it reduces both.

Having spent rather a lot of time in Japan over the past years ... it's definitely a tidy place, people keep their properties clean and don't drop trash on the streets or scribble graffiti on the walls. But actual hygiene? It was not so much different, pre-COVID (haven't been there since COVID so don't know what it is like now), there was no disinfection. You would get a towel/towelette to clean your hands before eating at a restaurant, but that was really it. (But, as Dan says, this isn't really a significant infection path anyway.)

What is different, though, is the acceptance of masking, and the acceptance of distancing. Even before COVID, people would tend to keep their distance, hugs etc in public are rare. Also, a high degree of societal cohesion, and understanding the need to not infect others. On the other hand ... the public transport is often very busy.

Another difference is the small percentage of foreign-born residents. This results in fewer trips abroad, and fewer infections brought in. The borders were never locked as hard as NZ or China, but there were far fewer people arriving at airports than there have been in Canada. And no commercial traffic from a large neighbouring country!

They are being hit by Omicron now, but the relative numbers are quite low. At least for now.

Makes sense to me. They have focussed on the 3Cs: closed spaces, crowded places, and close contact. Much more effective than hygiene theatre.

As for places like NZ -- easy to lock down borders when you have no neighbours.

To add, almost off topic, but, rich nations need to figure out an effective way to get poor nations double vaccinated.

Yes, vaccine equity is a big problem. Not sure what we can do as individuals except donating to UNICED.

NZ did depend on tourism quite a bit, but they made the call that they'd be screwed on that anyway whether they were open or not. (The UK also has no neighbours also.)