The COVID-19 pandemic

[Bjays93]

I think the Omicron variant is going to end up wiping out this disease.

This is a mild variant, by all accounts. The vaccines aren't useful at protecting against infection. They are useful at preventing hospitalizations, but that might be a moot point.

I do expect the numbers to get really high, but I think we need to suck up this one.  Get your booster if you qualify, for most, that will be in the new year.

This is frustrating.

These things you say, are either not known, or not true.

Vaccines are absolutely useful for preventing infection. And it is not known if Omicron is mild, but all the preliminary data showing could be mild still shows it is not mild enough to not result in serious impacts on our healthcare system.

Also if we really want to get into this then I wanna highlight a few things. 

Firstly jeffster said this is a mild variant, by all accounts

He's not saying the variant is mild, he's saying based on the accounts so far they're saying it's mild. This is something you explicitly agreed with in your response. 

the preliminary data showing could be mild (aka you also agree the early data is suggesting it may be more mild)

He then says the vaccines aren't useful at protecting against infection. They are useful at preventing hospitalizations which plam has the numbers to back up in his post. 

Two doses are about 25% effective vs infection and 70% vs hospitalizations

I dont see how these two statements are any different. One is just citing the actual numbers the other is basing their statement on. 

Lastly jeffster highlights 

They are useful at preventing hospitalizations, but that might be a moot point.

The argument here, is quite clearly that omicron is so much more infectious and that so many more people will be getting sick (as jeffster also establishes in his post) that even if they are much more effective at preventing hospitalizations we could still undoubtedly have a problem due to the massive amounts of people getting sick, which is again the same sentiment you echo while rebutting him. 

but all the preliminary data showing could be mild still shows it is not mild enough to not result in serious impacts on our healthcare system.

You are both essentially saying the same thing, and jeffster is encouraging people to get their boosters. 

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Not yet known that it's mild. It's still too early to tell. Two doses are about 25% effective vs infection and 70% vs hospitalizations. Because we're in a situation where most people are vaccinated or previously-infected, we don't know how nasty it would be without that protection.

Boosters are now much sooner than next year. 3 months after your 2nd dose.

This is frustrating.

These things you say, are either not known, or not true.

Vaccines are absolutely useful for preventing infection. And it is not known if Omicron is mild, but all the preliminary data showing could be mild still shows it is not mild enough to not result in serious impacts on our healthcare system.

+1

Boosters are now much sooner than next year. 3 months after your 2nd dose.

Also what is this being based on? Boosters start monday but by all accounts they remain for people who are 6 months fully vaxxed not 3 which is currently the official recommendation by a multitude of people. 

Lastly if we really want to get into how I feel about all this rather than throwing around baseless accusations.

Edited: I misinterpreted and I am sorry for that

When it comes to omicron, there are a plethora of people saying it's mild, but I think all of us here know that:

A. Its likely too early to truly determine this

B. If the variant is as infectious as it appears to be, being more mild could very easily not be enough to offset the rapid rise in cases (again we all understand this so I don't think the rationale behind this needs to be explained)

C. It is very clear the existing two dose regime is largely ineffective at preventing breakthrough cases and spread. There is both ample anecdotal evidence and some empirical data to start backing this up. It is probably a little early to draw conclusions on just how effective vaccines are at preventing hospitalization with omicron, especially given how poor of a case study south Africa is due to their vax rate. Hospitalizations are a lagging indicator meaning while the current data is promising it may be too early to tell. I am also skeptical of what Pfizer as a company is saying becasue of course they are going to be pushing for 3rd and even 4th doses. They're making money off vaccines of course they'll be pushing what's profitable from them. The overall effectiveness of a 3 dose regimen remains to be seen, especially since we have already seen breakthrough cases in people who have 3 doses. 

I am not optimistic, but I will wait before drawing any conclusions until we have more info to that end. 

Bottom line, omicron is serious, possibly more so than any other point in the pandemic so far. The rate of spread is unprecedented even if it is more mild and the effectiveness of vaccines is greatly reduced for preventing infection and largely remains to be seen in other areas. Masks and testing remain a critical tool to help slow covid spread and keep people safe, and funding to healthcare should be a priority as lockdowns (something I have been staunchly in favour of) are not a viable long term strategy. 

Feel free to tell me how I'm wrong about all of this.