07-25-2021, 03:45 PM
It's pretty clear that we have hit a plateau with the Ontario numbers: the new cases are staying in the high 100s, the active cases are inching up and so are the test positivity rates. The province's estimated Re is now up to 0.99, indicating that we should see a new case follow for every active one. Canadian new cases for the past week are about 10% higher than for the week prior. (Waterloo Region, fortunately, has largely recovered from the mini-peak we hit last month and early this month.)
I expect that this is a combination of Delta having spread everywhere in the province (and country) now, and the opening up of the province to Step 3. The vaccination rates are still going up, but not fast enough to make up for those factors.
And under-20s now make up for over 30% of the Ontario cases, and here the vaccination rates are substantially lower than with the older population. Under-12s are not yet eligible, and the availability for the under-18s is relatively more recent as well. This is probably the biggest opportunity to make an impact easily. As the vaccination rates increase for the total population, that will help as well, but that progress is now going to be much slower than in the last three months.
We can't eradicate Delta, so that leaves the question of reopening. Alberta has shot up from 50 cases/day to 100 in the past week, after a reopening and the Stampede. What will Ontario do? Some of the medical advisors are suggesting that full reopening needs to await reaching a 90% (of eligible population) vaccination level, which would leave us at Step 3 (or something similar) until likely sometime in September. Will Ford listen to the advisors or forge ahead with a full reopening?
I expect that this is a combination of Delta having spread everywhere in the province (and country) now, and the opening up of the province to Step 3. The vaccination rates are still going up, but not fast enough to make up for those factors.
And under-20s now make up for over 30% of the Ontario cases, and here the vaccination rates are substantially lower than with the older population. Under-12s are not yet eligible, and the availability for the under-18s is relatively more recent as well. This is probably the biggest opportunity to make an impact easily. As the vaccination rates increase for the total population, that will help as well, but that progress is now going to be much slower than in the last three months.
We can't eradicate Delta, so that leaves the question of reopening. Alberta has shot up from 50 cases/day to 100 in the past week, after a reopening and the Stampede. What will Ontario do? Some of the medical advisors are suggesting that full reopening needs to await reaching a 90% (of eligible population) vaccination level, which would leave us at Step 3 (or something similar) until likely sometime in September. Will Ford listen to the advisors or forge ahead with a full reopening?