05-31-2021, 03:16 PM
(05-31-2021, 12:34 PM)jeffster Wrote:(05-30-2021, 10:46 PM)tomh009 Wrote: I'm estimating the eligible population (12+ years old) at roughly 87%. If that's correct, getting 90% coverage of the eligible population would mean 78.3% of the total population, and 85% of eligibles would be 74%. I do expect that we should be able to reach that 85% (74% of total) by late June or July. 90% (78% of total) would be great but may not be realistic. But either level should have us at something close to herd immunity, at least for the current variants.
I think we’ll level off at 80% of the eligible population, if things go well.
My guess is higher than your guess. But they are both guesses at this point. Right now, assuming the 87% eligibility is roughly correct, we're at about 65% of eligible population. Israel made it to about 80% in spite of a large ultra-orthodox population that is largely vaccine-hesitant.
I think we can beat that mark, but that does remain to be seen. For now, the vaccination pace is not letting up, which is a positive in itself.