03-14-2021, 05:14 PM
(03-14-2021, 04:47 PM)plam Wrote:(03-14-2021, 02:52 PM)tomh009 Wrote: 41,859 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average of 38,250. At this pace, the dose count will reach 70% of the provincial population on 2021-11-02 (-10 days).
Yes I think the -10 is key here. And then we can model with that first derivative what the actual completion date would be (but what's the second derivative?)
It would be really good to find accurate B117 numbers as that's what we really need to worry about. Too bad they're hard to find.
I think there is a lot of B.1.1.7 out there, and that is keeping the provincial case numbers at 1,000+.
The province's daily epidemiologic summary has the number of variant cases detected, but given the variable number of tests, that is really not a useful metric to determine these variants' penetration in Ontario. Publishing N501Y positivity rates would be much better -- and then positivity rates for each of the variants (as a percentage of N501Y positives).