11-20-2020, 01:38 PM
(11-20-2020, 12:43 PM)tomh009 Wrote:(11-20-2020, 11:40 AM)ac3r Wrote: COVID-19 cases in Canada could rise to 60,000 per day by end of year, Dr. Tam warns: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/a...d-of-year/
I wonder what data (until what date) was used for the projections. In the last week the number of cases in most provinces has been more stable. Still high, but the number of cases isn't getting inexorably higher each day. If this pattern holds, we should be able to avoid the kinds of numbers the projection is highlighting.
It's all about human behaviour at this point: if people smarten up and minimize their contacts, we can turn this trend around. But that's a big "if" at the moment.
I dunno...doesn't take reading the comments for very long to realize that human's are the worst and their behaviour will lead to the worst outcome.
As for the stability, yes, we've had a number of days of stability, but we had that before too...it doesn't mean a turnaround. I see no indication that behaviour has changed. In fact it was exactly a few days of stability a month or so ago that led Ford's team to clami they were about to turn around....and we see where that got us.
That being said, while it's possible we could get to 60k per day, I think it's unlikely. Things that will change our behaviour...freezer trucks outside hospitals...and by that I mean, if things get bad enough, it will turn around--that's long before 60k per day. Of course, it hasn't worked in many US states so maybe I'm being overly optimistic.