The COVID-19 pandemic

[jeffster]

WEDNESDAY 2020-11-04

Waterloo Region again reported 23 new cases for today (17.4% of the active cases).  136 new cases for the week (+15), averaging 17.9% of active cases (ugh). 140 active cases (+46 in the last seven days).

This is quite disconcerting, really. The number of active cases is creeping up -- 50% increase in the last week -- but on top of that, the new cases as a percentage of actives (which implies R0, or the infection rate) is also increasing. What has changed in the region?

Next testing report on Friday.

Ontario reported 987 new cases today with a seven-day average of 958 (+22). 945 recoveries and sixteen (!) deaths translated to an increase of 26 active cases, and a current total of 8,321, yet another record. +747 active cases for the week, and 74 deaths. 28,567 tests resulted in a 3.46% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 2.95% for the past seven days.

ICU patient count is up to 75 (+2) and the hospital population up to 357 (+55 over the past week).

• 408 cases in Toronto: 14.0 per 100K population
  
• 299 cases in Peel: 29.9 per 100K
  
• 85 cases in York: 7.8 per 100K
  
• 62 cases in Durham: 7.5 per 100K
  
• 48 cases in Ottawa: 4.8 per 100K
  
• 47 cases in Halton: 7.1 per 100K
  
• 32 cases in Hamilton: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Waterloo: 3.1 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  

People having parties. Wasn’t there a wedding that ended up with a whole bunch of infections?

Anyway, people are having large gatherings, and this is likely the cause.