10-01-2020, 11:56 AM
(This post was last modified: 10-01-2020, 11:58 AM by danbrotherston.)
(10-01-2020, 11:09 AM)tomh009 Wrote:(10-01-2020, 07:44 AM)danbrotherston Wrote: I don't think anyone can claim that it is "not as bad"...merely that we don't know if it is worse yet. That being said, there are numerous reason to believe it will be worse, first and foremost because we are not implementing the same precautions.
Based on their analysis of the data, they believe that the actual number of cases (as opposed to the published number of confirmed cases) is still far below that of the first wave, because the testing during the first wave was far too low, so only a small portion of the cases were actually detected.
Whether it will get worse than the first wave is indeed still to be seen. But I will note that the actions don't need to be the same as for the first wave, only that they need to be equally or more effective. (We had no masks or contact tracing, for example, during the first wave.)
I am aware they claim the "actual" cases are lower. I am arguing that there is no way to know, there are too many unknowns, and it basically amounts to speculation.
I agree, that the actions we take must be equally effective, I said exactly that in the second paragraph. The thing we have gained now is the ability to use more precise targeted options...but we are still not doing that either.