05-22-2020, 02:45 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-22-2020, 02:45 PM by danbrotherston.)
(05-22-2020, 02:15 PM)tomh009 Wrote: OK, I will say first that I am not happy with the current situation. New cases are averaging almost 400 per day. Testing volume is not improving. Active cases are going up. New cases as % of actives are going up. Test positivity % is going up. And yet we are proceeding to increase risk. Sigh.
Anyway, Waterloo Region reported nine new cases; over the past week that's 85 new cases, or approximately 12 per day. Given that the region is about 4% of Ontario population, this is somewhat better than the province at large.
Ontario reported 441 new cases, or an average of 387 over the past week. 258 recoveries and 28 deaths means an increase of 155 active cases (an average increase of 55 for the past week). 11,276 tests for a 3.9% positivity rate (an average of 4.0% over the week). The new cases are 1.8% of the total but 11.5% of the number of active cases (weekly average is 10.8% of active cases).
The positives are the hospital population (961, -23) and the ICU population (153, -2). Those are down 3% and 20% over the last week, respectively. It does not appear that there is likely to be any hospital capacity issue in the near term.
Are we reopening the doors too quickly?
Definitely starting to get concerning that testing continues to be flat, (where do you get the numbers for tests by the way)?
I do think we are opening too early, but this latest spike will be at least a 2 week lag, unless it results from changes to the testing methodology, which did also change (anyone with symptoms)...
More data would definitely help. Indiana did a state wide statistically significant experient to try to determine what percentage has COVID, this kind of information could be very helpful to us to understand exactly what is happening here (the Indiana data does not extrapolate before anyone starts to speculate).